DraftKings NFL DFS Strategy QB Week 8

DraftKings NFL DFS Strategy QB Week 8

NFL DFS Week 8: Quarterbacks Report - Baker Mayfield Retains Value Without OBJ

An in-depth NFL DFS guide to the Week 8 quarterbacks to target and fade when setting your daily lineups.
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Week 8 NFL DFS Reports

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)

After the game score got out of line early against Denver due to a defensive score and kick return, Mahomes turned in a short performance (200/1). He passed for fewer than 240 yards in three of his previous four games while delivering only seven passing touchdowns over his past four starts. Mahomes slipped to fourth in quarterback scoring (27.21 FPPG). His only impact game came in Week 3 (43.85 fantasy points) against the Ravens. The Jets allowed over 300 yards in three games, but only one opponent tossed more than two touchdowns (Miami – 200/3). Vegas has Kansas City listed a 21-point favorite, leading to increased runs in the second half. Mahomes will have his way in this game to break out of his slump. His floor should be 300 passing yards and four touchdowns.

Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,700)

Wilson leads the NFL in quarterback scoring (33.70 FPPG) while already posting four impact games (35.00, 37.30, 39.95, and 36.80 fantasy points). He is on a career pace (5,672 combined yards and 59 touchdowns). In 2019, Wilson posted two dull games (285/1 and 262/2) vs. the 49ers. San Francisco had no problem with the Patriots’ passing game in Week 7 (4.7 fantasy points). They struggled in two contests over their first six games (ARI – 324 combined yards with two touchdowns and MIA – 366/2). They allow 6.7 yards per pass attempt with quarterbacks tossing eight touchdowns. Wilson is playing the best ball of his career, and I expect the Dolphins’ passing script to drill the 49ers. San Francisco still lost a couple of their top defensive linemen earlier in the year, which will be exposed as the season moves on.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,400)

A week after getting steamrolled by the Buccaneers’ defense (160/2), Rodgers rebounded with another strong showing in Houston (283/4). He already has three games with four touchdowns while averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt. In Week 1, Rodgers passed for 364 yards and four touchdowns vs. the Vikings. Minnesota gave up over 300 yards passing in four contests, with opponents gaining 8.5 yards per pass attempt. Three quarterbacks have three passing touchdowns or more. In the mix at the top end, which would be helped if Aaron Jones returns to the starting lineup.

Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,300)

Image result for Lamar Jackson

Jackson passed for fewer than 205 yards in each of their previous five games. He slipped to 12th in quarterback scoring (23.39 FPPG) with two 30-point fantasy games (30.25 and 30.10). Jackson regained his legs in his last matchup (9/108/1). In 2019, he finished with 231 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions in his only game against the Steelers. Pittsburgh has yet to allow more than two passing touchdowns or more than 280 passing yards in any games. The Steelers also play well vs. the runs (122/413/4 – 4.1 yards per carry). Against the grain with a sliding salary.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,200)

After three quiet games (20.95, 17.30, and 20.45 FPPG), fantasy owners in the season-long games are starting to get restless with Allen's value. His season began with three impact games (33.30, 38.65, and 36.35 FPPG) thanks to 12 touchdowns and 1,122 combined yards). Last week, he gained plenty of yards (368), but Allen failed to earn a touchdown vs. the lowly Jets. Last year Allen struggled in both games (179/1 and 251/2) against the Patriots. New England allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt with failure in one game (SEA – 288/5). The Bills have a chance to put the Patriots away after two straight losses—only a steady option in Week 8 at DraftKings.

Justin Herbert, LAC (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,700)

Five games into his NFL career, Herbert averages 333 combined yards and 2.8 touchdowns per game. His play has been exceptional over his last three starts (989 combined yards with 11 touchdowns). He moved to tenth in quarterback scoring (24.20 FPPG) despite missing one game. Denver has risk vs. the run (4.9 yards per rush) while playing better than expected against the pass (6.9 yards per pass attempts), with only the Raiders (347/3) delivering a winning game. An attractive player with the swag to make big plays, but his beat can’t go on every game.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,500)

Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans

The Titans struggled to solve the Steelers’ defense over the first half, leading to Tannehill's short game (220/2). He sits seventh in quarterback scoring (25.62 FPPG) while offering three playable games (29.15, 31.95, and 34.30 FPPG) that all came at home. The Bengals’ defense allowed 178 points over their last six games with regression vs. quarterbacks over four matchups (1,218 passing yards and 12 touchdowns). This matchup should be high scoring, giving Tannehill upside if Derrick Henry doesn’t steal the scoring thunder.

Ben Roethlisberger, PIT (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,100)

Last week Roethlisberger attempted a season-high 49 passes, but he gained only 5.5 yards per pass attempt with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Roethlisberger fell to 21st in quarterback scoring (20.62 FPPG) with no value games for the daily tournaments. In 2019, he missed both contests against the Ravens. Baltimore allows only 6.7 yards per pass attempts with 13 sacks over their previous two games. Their biggest failure came in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs (411/5). The wrong kind of matchup to use Roethlisberger at DraftKings.

Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,300)

The Rams’ offense looks much better this year. Goff has three games with over 300 yards, with two resulting in three combined touchdowns. He has two passing touchdowns or fewer in five straight games. His completion rate (67.7) and yards per pass attempt (8.0) sets the foundation for more upside in passing yards if forced to throw. Miami struggled in two games defending quarterback (BUF – 435/4 and SEA – 360/2). They held three other opponents to fewer than 200 passing yards. Los Angeles should have success running the ball, which may restrict Goff’s upside. More of a flier.

Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,200)

Entering last week, Stafford was one of the top quarterback plays at DraftKings. He finished with only one touchdown for the second straight game, but Stafford finished with over 300 yards passing for the first time in 2020. He is on pace for 4,213 passing yards and 27 touchdowns, which is below his expected value. The Colts lead the NFL in quarterback defense (1,281 passes yards and seven passing touchdowns over six games). No quarterback scored over 21.00 fantasy points. Pure against the grain play while being helped by the game being played at home.

Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,600)

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Considering the starting wide receiver options for Brees in Week 7, he played well vs. the Panthers (289/3). Over his six starts, Brees passed for over 300 yards in two games with two matches ending with three combined touchdowns. It doesn’t appear that Michael Thomas will play in Week 8. The Bears continue to play well vs. quarterbacks (6.6 yards per pass attempt and six touchdowns). Tough to trust in this matchup. At best, 250 passing yards and two touchdowns.

Joe Burrow, CIN (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,600)

Burrow already has five games with over 300 yards passing, with his best success coming in Week 2 (316/3) and Week 7 (440/4). His completion rate (66.6) remains strong while needing improvement in his touchdowns (12) and yards per pass attempt (6.9). The Bengals’ offensive line allows a ton of pressure and sacks (28). Tennessee will give up passing touchdowns (15 in six games), with four teams gaining over 200 yards from their wide receivers with nine touchdowns. The Titans only have seven sacks, which points to a longer passing window for Burrow. A winnable matchup highlighted by his depth at wide receiver.

Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,200)

After a boring start to the year, Mayfield delivered his best game (297/5) of his career against the Bengals despite playing without his top wide receiver. Over his first six games, he averaged only 183 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns. Las Vegas' pass defense struggled over their previous three games (BUF – 287/3, KC – 340/1, and TB – 369/5). The Raiders allowed two rushing touchdowns in each game this year, which points to Kareem Hunt being active in this game. The Raiders allow 32.8 points per game, and the Browns give up 31.6 points per game. Replicating his huge game last week is a stretch, but Mayfield should see more action as the offense opens up without Nick Chubb and Odell Beckham Jr.

Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100)

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The Vikings struggled in Week 6, but Cousins bailed out his stats in the fourth quarter, leading to 343 yards and three touchdowns. In four of his six starts, he has a floor of 250 yards and two scores. Minnesota was dominated in three different games in time of possession, including Week 1 vs. the Packers (18:44 minutes of offense) when he passed for 259 yards and two late touchdowns. Green Bay will give up a couple of passing touchdowns per game, but they did play better at home defending quarterbacks (244/2 and 285/0). CB Jaire Alexander will slow down one of the Vikings’ top two wide receivers, limiting Cousins' upside.

Philip Rivers, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,900)

After four straight dull games (214/1, 217/1, 190/1, and 243/0), Rivers climbed off the mat to pass for a season-high 371 yards and three touchdowns. After six games, he only has seven touchdowns with six interceptions. His completion rate (69.7) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) grade well. In 2019 with the Chargers, Rivers passed for 293 yards with no touchdowns against the Lions. Detroit allowed over 20.00 fantasy points in each game with no impact games. The Falcons were the only team to pass over 300 yards (338/1). Indy will try to run the ball and play solid defense, making Rivers a player to fade in the daily games.

Nick Foles, CHI (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700)

Over four games as a starter for Chicago, Foles averaged 40.75 passing attempts per game. Unfortunately, he only has three touchdowns with five interceptions while averaging only 5.8 yards per pass attempt. Foles averages only 238 passing yards per game. Quarterbacks have 17 passing touchdowns against New Orleans over six contests. No team has passed for over 300 yards vs. the Saints. Foles looks unattractive, but his floor should be higher in scoring unless the Bears decide to hook him in favor of Mitchell Trubisky.

Cam Newton, NE (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,400)

Over the last three games, the Patriots scored only 28 points with three touchdowns against Kansas City, Denver, and San Francisco. They passed for fewer than 200 yards in five of their six games with only three passing touchdowns. Cam Newton struggled in back-to-back games (233/1 and 117/0) while tossing five interceptions. Buffalo is league average defending quarterbacks (22.39 FPPG) with failure in two games (LAR – 325/3 and TEN – 237/4). New England has a lot to prove this week, along with Newton.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,800)

Miami picked up back-to-back wins over the last two games while averaging almost 30 points per game over the previous five weeks. They decided to switch to their rookie quarterback after the bye week, which brings an unknown to their matchup against the Rams. Over his last two seasons in college, Tagovailoa averaged 11.2 yards per pass attempt with an incredible touchdown (76) to interception (9) ratio. Los Angeles sits sixth in quarterback defense (19.44 FPPG), with four teams scoring fewer than 17.00 fantasy points. His talent screams upside, but we may need to see a game or two before riding him in the daily tournaments.

Derek Carr, LV (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,300)

Raiders Derek Carr Fantasy Football

Over his previous six games, Carr had a floor of 261 yards and two touchdowns while delivering two games with over 300 yards and two games with three touchdowns. Over this span, he averaged 308 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. The Browns fell to 27th in quarterback defense (25.98 FPPG) with four disaster games (329/3, 316/3, 502/4, and 422/3). Carr has the tools to post a playable game, and this matchup should be high scoring.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,600)

Last week Garoppolo completed 80 percent of his passes against the Patriots, but he threw two interceptions with no touchdowns. Over his previous two starts with his full receiving corps, Garoppolo averaged 9.4 yards per pass attempt. The 49ers will be without Deebo Samuel this week, which is a strike to his passing upside. In 2019, he passed for 533 yards and one touchdown in two games vs. Seattle. The Seahawks remain the second-worst defense against quarterbacks (31.84 FPPG) with failure in four games (450/2, 444/3, 498/3, 427/4)—worth a couple of shots in GPPs at DraftKings.

Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,000)

Lock struggled in both of his starts (189/0 and 254/0) after missing time with a shoulder injury. He has two interceptions in back-to-back games. Over his three full games, Lock averaged about 220 passing yards with only one touchdown. Last year at home vs. the Chargers, he passed for 134 yards and two scores. Los Angeles slipped to 29th in quarterback defense (26.26 FPPG) with struggles in two games (356/2, 329/2, and 366/5). The Chargers allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt. Lock looks to be only a donation. 

MORE: Week 8 Rankings, Articles, Reports & Tools Hub

Week 8 NFL DFS Reports

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $8,100/FD – $9,200)

After the game score got out of line early against Denver due to a defensive score and kick return, Mahomes turned in a short performance (200/1). He passed for fewer than 240 yards in three of his previous four games while delivering only seven passing touchdowns over his past four starts. Mahomes slipped to fourth in quarterback scoring (27.21 FPPG). His only impact game came in Week 3 (43.85 fantasy points) against the Ravens. The Jets allowed over 300 yards in three games, but only one opponent tossed more than two touchdowns (Miami – 200/3). Vegas has Kansas City listed a 21-point favorite, leading to increased runs in the second half. Mahomes will have his way in this game to break out of his slump. His floor should be 300 passing yards and four touchdowns.

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