We are only a couple weeks away from The Masters. It’s no surprise we get a weak field tournament this week as the big shots are fine resting or fine tuning their skills before the big one.
With the WGC HSBC Champions being cancelled in China this event takes center stage. This was originally an alternate tournament but due to Covid-19 we pivot. Nothing new in 2020 it seems we just keep pivoting until we reach 2021. Last season was the maiden voyage of Royal Port GC and Brendon Todd took home the hardware in route to his career resurgent 2019-2020 season.
Two players sit at the top of DK Sportsbook this week. The defending champ Todd + 1400 and young upcoming superstar Will Zalatoris +1150. Following up that top tier is Harold Varner III at +2200 and Doc Redman at +2800.
This week will be anyone's game. We have seen some off the wall winners this season with ridiculous odds to win. What diamond will emerge from the rough this week?
Keep on reading to get the Best Bets and more. . .
The Breakdown: Bermuda Championship
Dates: October 29th-1st
Course: Port Royal GC
Let’s take a look at the current odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As well as the best bets and more...
Bermuda Championship Predictions and Best Bets
Alex White, SI Gambling and DFS Analyst (@coachwhitedfs)
***Always hedge your outright bets with a top 5, top 10, or top 20 bet.***
BEST BETS TO WIN
Doc Redman +2800
Doc has been a steady performer on Tour now for the last season. Slowly he has been making a name for himself, especially in the DFS community. He has earned these odds compared to the field this week. In his last five events he has two 3rd place finishes, a 28th, and two missed cuts. This should be a course he can attack and score with ease. Last season he took 35th at the Bermuda Championship. Not ideal for his odds this week but I believe he has a lot more confidence now after multiple high finishes on Tour. With a bit more course knowledge this season, he should be in contention on Sunday.
Henrik Stenson +3500
Stenson has been a shell of himself since last December when he last won the Hero. However, in this field, at these odds, he has to be in consideration. This reminds me of how Sergio won just a couple weeks ago at Sanderson Farms. Sergio was in horrible form leading up to the event. Henrik is in horrible form leading up to this event. Stenson is still popping in my model and ranks top 10 in four of my five key stats this week. This is more of a longshot play but weirder things have happened this golf season. Definitely second fiddle to Redman in my eyes this week.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Scott Stallings +4500
From young-blood Doc Redman, to a longtime veteran player in Scott Stallings, this course can be taken advantage of by players of all ages. For example: last season this tournament kicked off the resurgence of Brendon Todd’s career. Not to mention, this season we have seen Stewart Cink, Martin Laird, Hudson Swafford all win tournaments. Scott has what it takes to win on Tour he just needs to put it all together for four days. Stallings has gained strokes through approach in eight of his last ten events. Last year he shot under par all four rounds at this venue. I like this as an under the radar bet.
Ryan Armour +12500
Armour comes in ranked 16th overall in my statistics model. Normally I would just glance over that because he is a very inconsistent golfer but the fact he finished 8th here last year piqued my interest. Diving deeper I realized this course has a lot of shots coming from 200 yards plus. Armour ranks 6th in proximity from 200 yard plus and 2nd overall in shots gained on par 3’s. This course has three par 3’s over the 200 yard mark. If he can capture birdies on those holes he is stealing strokes from the field. I don't recommend going all in on Armour but he has a tendency to pop when you least expect it.
Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)
BEST BETS TO WIN
Kristoffer Ventura +3500
With a much more wide-open field, I’ll take the savings with Ventura compared to spending in the mid to high $10K-$11K range and get a golfer who’s currently the top ranked player in the field in strokes gained: total, and SG: off-the-tee over his last 24 rounds. I’ll also jump on board with Ventura as the top option in DraftKings points-gained over his last 24 rounds as well.
Ventura’s lone weakness at the moment is his chipping, ranking 105th in SG: around-the-green. He’s also coming off a cut at the Shriners Championship a few weeks back, but before that had finished with two T7s in his last three events, along with a T15 before that.
BEST VALUE PLAY(S)
Alex Schenk +4500
The “Schenkster,” enters this week’s Bermuda Championship with three consecutive improved scores in his last three events: T56 at the Corales Puntacana, T32 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, and a T27 at the Shriners.
Furthermore, there’s no glaring weaknesses in his game at the moment. Schenk ranks as high as 7th in SG: tee-to-green, and no worse than 46th in SG: putting. He’s also made nine consecutive cuts on Tour and statistically plays his best on, you guessed it… “bermuda” greens.
Doug Ghim +8000
Ghim is a model-based value play from my personalized model over at Fantasy National. He currently comes in 14th in SG: total, 19th in SG: approach, and 12th in SG: around-the-green over his last 24 rounds. The putting has been rough (91st), but he’s finished with no worse than a T23 in three of his previous five rounds.
The two missed cuts sandwiched in between the outstanding performances are somewhat cause for concern, but there are very few golfers in that range who have actually put up those types of finishes over their last six-eight tournaments.
Another concern? Ghim is at his worst on bermuda greens, averaging -0.5 SG. He’s strictly a tournament play that if he drives and approaches well, he’ll surprise and cash in at low ownership.
Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@StatsGuru6)
BEST BET TO WIN
Brendon Todd +1400
With most of the top PGA players taking the week off, Brendon Todd (41st) is the only player in the field who is listed in the Top 50 World Golf rankings. Todd is the defending champion at this tournament as he shot a 260 (-24) total and won by four strokes over Harry Higgs during the inaugural event last year. He is looking to get back on track after struggling some during the CJ Cup (T52) and the ZOZO Championship (T47) the last two weeks. Prior to that, Todd finished a respectable T23 at the U.S. Open on the tough track at Winged Foot.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Kristoffer Ventura +3500
Posted as the fifth overall favorite, along with seven other players on the betting board at DraftKings, Kristoffer Ventura is my value play this week. Ventura has played well against similar fields recently as he posted Top 10 finishes at the Safeway Open (T7) in September and the Sanderson Farms Championship (T6) four weeks ago. He is currently ranked 31st in the FedEx Cup standings and has posted scores of 69 or lower during 10 of his last 14 rounds. I am going to hedge this bet with a wager on his +150 moneyline price to finish in the Top 20.
Check out the DFS golf contests offered every week at DraftKings!
TOP 10 FINISH
Doc Redman +250
Redman returns to action following a missed cut at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open three weeks ago. Prior to that, Redman finished T28 at the Sanderson Farms Championship and T3 at the Safeway Open, which was against similar competition. Redman qualified for 2020 FedEx playoffs after a T3 finish at the Wyndham Championship back in August. He ranked 12th overall in “greens in regulation percentage” during the 2019-20 PGA season and should continue that trend on the short track (6,842) at the Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton, Bermuda.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY
Peter Malnati (-106) over Adam Schenk (-115)
Peter Malnati and Adam Schenk, who have both played well recently, are featured as one of several head-to-head matchup props posted at DraftKings. Malnati has made three straight cuts and posted back-to-back top five finishes at the Sanderson Farms Championship (2) and the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open (T5) during his last two starts. Schenk has made four straight cuts but his best finish is a T27 at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. Malnati has finished higher than Schenk in the last three tournaments.