The Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship gave us quite the finish. Hudson Swafford was clearly winning going into Sunday, lost the lead, and then showed some serious heart and pulled out the career-saving win with a two on hole 17. That tournament is proof that golf is the best sport for betting. You could have gotten Swafford at +17500 on DK Sportsbook. How do you get better odds on an outright bet outside of a ridiculous parlay?
This week we head to Jackson, Missouri for the Sanderson Farms Championship. Last year's winner was Sebastian Munoz at +8000. The value is evident in these weaker field events. You have a better chance of making more money in these second tier tournaments. Who will you back this week? Let us guide you in the right direction.
This week’s field consists of some household names. Coming out as the odds on favorite is none other than Rookie of the Year Scottie Scheffler at +1100. Followed up by last season's Rookie of the Year Sungjae Im at +1300. Henrik Stenson (+5000) is back in the field again this week after a 21st place finish at Corales. Additionally, let’s not forget about the new shiny toy on Tour: Will Zalatoris after a scorching 65 on Sunday last week comes in at +2100. Will any of these golfers make our top picks this week? Keep on reading to get the Best Bets and more. . .
The Breakdown: Sanderson Farms Championship
Dates: October 1st-4th
Course: CC of Jackson
Let’s take a look at the current odds from DK Sportsbook, as well as the best bets and more. . .
View the latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook and get a free bet up to $100 when you refer a friend!
Sanderson Farms Championship Predictions and Best Bets
Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)
The Sanderson Farms Championship Sharp Action Breakdown
Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located in London, England has been on fire with sharp picks since the PGA’s return. After taking last week off, the boys across the pond are back to share their model’s picks for the Sanderson Farms Championship.
According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, the Metric Gaming team is looking forward to this week’s event.
There are four players the UK sharps have their sights set on this week in Mississippi.
“Country Club of Jackson is hosting this week's Sanderson Farms Championship. At almost 7,500 yards, Par 72, the longer hitters should have some advantage,” said Banham. “Although our models make Scottie Scheffler way above anyone else, we can not back him at odds of +1100. Closest amongst the favorites is Sungjae IM, as the South Korean is about fair price at +1700 and should do well on this setup. We had to dig deeper to find value this week.”
Accordingly, Metric Gaming’s model points to Zach Johnson at odds of +5000. “First off we find tremendous value in the two time major champion Zach Johnson. Zach seems to really enjoy himself after getting the Payne Stewart award and is playing very well at the moment. Our model makes him the 3rd best player in the field after the above mentioned, and tied with Will Zalatoris. Accordingly, we can’t pass on this juicy opportunity..”
Currently, Johnson’s odds can be found at DraftKings Sportsbook at odds of +2800.
Secondly, we really like Lucas Glover at odds of +5000,.
“Another major champion is listed at odds of +5000, and that is Lucas Glover. Even though he’s not firing on all cylinders, there’s enough here to justify a play at this price.” All bettors at DraftKings Sportsbook can currently match the value of 50/1 on Glover.
Thirdly, Sebastian Munoz is a golfer flying under the radar and is offering great hidden value.
“Munoz, can be brilliant with the putter, and has been solid over the last several months. He won this tournament last year (playoff vs Sungjae IM) and can be found at +4500. This is a small opinion for us.”
Munoz can presently be found at DraftKings Sportsbook at adjusted odds of +2800.
Finally, Metric’s fourth play this week is Denny McCarthy at odds of +7000. “McCarthy can absolutely putt the lights out. With a winning score in the -20s, making a lot of birdies will be paramount. Tremendous value can not be passed up at odds of +7000.” At the time of this post, McCarthy can be found at odds of +6000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Alex White, SI Gambling and DFS Analyst (@coachwhitedfs)
***Always hedge your outright bets with a top 5, top 10, or top 20 bet.***
BEST BETS TO WIN
Sungjae Im +1300
I know. . . how boring to bet one of the top options on the slate. Hear me out, sometimes the best guys do win.
Sungjae is coming in with back to back top 25 finishes. One of those finishes was even more impressive considering it was at the U.S. Open. Sungjae lost his mojo in the middle of June and struggled to find his form for nearly two months. Now the form is back and Sungjae is primed to take advantage of this weak field. If he can duplicate or build upon the results from last season (2nd place finish) we will be sitting pretty on Sunday.
Hedge this play with a top 5 finish: +300
Sam Burns +2500
Last week Burns was flying high going into the weekend just four shots back. He somehow shot the worst round of any golfer on Saturday and dropped way down the leaderboards. On Sunday he pulled his head from you know where and shot a beautiful six under par recording only one bogey on the 17th. When a golfer finishes strong on Sunday it’s smart to hop back on the following week. Burns has all the tools to win on Tour. Back him now in these weaker field events.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Cameron Davis +5000
Cameron’s form is undeniably great right now. He has made his last four cuts with two top 20’s and his worst finish is 36th last time out at the Safeway. With the ability to make birdies in bunches Davis is in heavy consideration at +5000. We want him to come out on Thursday and post a low round because he has a tendency to make things interesting on Friday’s when he is hovering around the cut line. I believe in his game and with a field like this his first win isn’t out of the question.
Talor Gooch +9000
Goooooooooch! I can hear it now as he makes it into the final grouping on Sunday and I’m in my living room screaming it at the top of my lungs because. . . well Covid and no fans. Someone has to do it. The kid can flip a switch and make a ton of birdies or a ton of bogeys. Gooch is definitely a mixed bag when it comes to results. However, he is two for two on made cuts at Sanderson Farms. Look for him to build upon his success at this course in the past.
Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@StatsGuru6)
BEST BET TO WIN:
Zach Johnson (+2500)
Looking past the favorites, on the DraftKings betting board, Zach Johnson is my top play to win the Sanderson Farms Championship. Johnson finished a respectable T8 at the U.S. Open during his last start. Solid putting is a key to victory on the Country Club of Jackson course and Johnson led the U.S. Open field in SG: Putting two weeks ago. Although his game wasn’t sharp during the Northern Trust (T49) Johnson finished T7 the week before during the Wyndham Championship.
BEST VALUE PLAY:
Doc Redman (+3300)
Redman sat out the last two weeks as he didn’t play in the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship or the U.S. Open. He has played well since the restart - including a pair third place finishes in the Safeway Open and the Wyndham Championship. Since this tournament moved to the Country Club of Jackson, during the 2014-15 PGA season, the last six Sanderson Farms champions have been first-time PGA Tour winners. Redman is worth a wager to make it seven straight.
TOP 10 FINISH:
Brian Harman (+400)
Harman has made six straight cuts dating back to the 3M Open in late July. Like everyone, not named Bryson DeChambeau, he struggled during the U.S. Open and finished T38 with a +14 over par score. Prior to that, Harman was knocking on the Top 10 door with solid outings in the BMW Championship (T12) and the Northern Trust (T11) during the FedEx Cup playoffs. Harman was two strokes out of the Top 10 after he finished T14 with a -13 total score at this tournament last year.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY:
Chesson Hadley (-118) over Nick Taylor (-112)
Prices on the matchup props at DraftKings Sportsbook have some fairly distinct favorites and underdogs this week. My play is on a close battle between Hadley and Taylor. Hadley made the cut at the U.S. Open and posted a T51 finish. He played well at the Safeway Open (T14) and the Barracuda Championship (17) prior to that. Taylor has missed the cut during three of his last five starts. The Canadian hasn’t played since finishing T51 at the BMW Championship in late August.
The Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship gave us quite the finish. Hudson Swafford was clearly winning going into Sunday, lost the lead, and then showed some serious heart and pulled out the career-saving win with a two on hole 17. That tournament is proof that golf is the best sport for betting. You could have gotten Swafford at +17500 on DK Sportsbook. How do you get better odds on an outright bet outside of a ridiculous parlay? Subscribe for full article
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