Monday Dongers Club - 7/30

The dongers club is here and with a little second half update to the format to help preview the slate on Monday night with 9 games.
Author:
Publish date:

WEATHER

There are no decisions to make here. Dang it. Why am I doing this new presentation format in August. I need a good weather day to post some awesome "slides" into my deck. Oh well.

GAME THOUGHTS ...

Skip this if you want the cliff notes summary at the bottom, decided to show the work today.

PHILLIES @ RED SOX ... Aaron Nola is facing against the lowest strikeout team against RHP and also a team who has a ton of solid bats at the top of their lineup. Nobody will use him because there are enough items that they could easily list off the top of their head as to why not to use him, such as having to face a DH instead of a SP + Good hitters ballpark + being on the road + Mookie + Mookie + Mookie. He has the DFS lure of being a very good pitcher in a bad spot where he won't be stacked against but he also is like 5% owned which is the equivalence to showing a 10 year old a Playboy magazine, he thinks the world is great and is going to be awesome one day and then he realizes that the Playboy model only sleeps with the President. (I told you that you don't wanna see the work).... We're not using Nola, we dont need to go there hopefully. David Price on the other side is going to give up a home run to the 2-hole hitter right? Who's the Phillies 2-hole hitter? Oh, it's probably Rhys Red Hotskins. OK, cool, the Phillies strike-out a ton right? But they get to throw in a DH tonight (likely Asdrubal). I want bats here, it's 80 degrees. This is a hitters game but two decent bullpens. So lets not do more than a one off here or there which means they won't be listed in the stacks section but they do have a couple individuals who should be considered such as Hoskins and Mookie.

MARLINS @ BRAVES ... The only Julio in Atlanta who can be trusted is going tonight, but I can't trust him in this spot against the Marlins. Julio faces the Mets later this week and should destroy them, but there's no way he could possibly have two magical starts in the same week because I desperately need him to do such in my dynasty league. That said, the reasons I really hate Julio tonight are simple a- there's some humidity with rain in the area (nothing to worry about) and Bour/Dietrich are gonna murder him -- plus the Marlins as a team for whatever reason seem to travel well to Atlanta. I think this is because of all the teams who can avoid the SouthBeachTheory and the [Atlanta]ClubTheory would be Marlins and Braves. Marlins wont fall trap to what happened with the Dodgers yesterday and conversely the Braves do fine in Miami. I'll even go as far as to say the Marlins could be winning this game late and then the bullpen blows it to some crap at the bottom of the Braves order like Ender Inciarte. Wei Chen sucks, but LHP in Atlanta negate the boost that LHB get there and The Braves are just a 3.5 tonight out of a 5 star rating.

INDIANS @ TWINS ... Indians have always destroyed the Twins in Minnesota and the Twins have beat up Indians pitching all year. So what gives here? Do we get another 12-11 series? I don't think so. Beebs made a start earlier at Minnesota and was great until they saw him a third time. Without Escobar in that lineup the Twins might appear harder to trust, but I like Sano eventually to get going and again I have no desire to use pitchers from a team who really doesn't need to win right now (Cleveland) and for the Twins Santana could easily be pulled 4 innings in if he is looking good because teams will want to trade for him in a heartbeat if he is healthy. Eddie Rosario owns the Indians pitching, we gotta consider him and again the Lindor-Brantley-Jose-Edwin Mt. Rushmore for Indians has some potential here if they get into that Twins bullpen. I don't think I'm gonna touch the Tribe tonight but this series I will definitely be using them.

ROCKIES @ CARDINALS ... It's Around 70 degrees, some clouds and maybe a light rain. Tyler Anderson is a pitcher I wanna consider tonight and need to present to my subs as a sneaky underdog on the road in St. Louis. The Rockies are better than the Cardinals and the Cards are coming off a Sunday Night game + they haven't hit LHP as well as they have RHP this year. Carlos Martinez is a f-tard coming off the DL, so we're not even gonna touch on him and there's no desire for hitters here either.

RANGERS @ DIAMONDBACKS ... This is the game where we start all our decision making tonight (not the Phils/Sox). Robbie Ray vs the Rangers is going to be the chalk SP given his price and the allure of the 12 strikeout game. He won't strikeout 12 but I think he is the guy to consider as the #1 choice tonight. Road catchers in Chase (Chirinos) and Beltre/Andrus in Chase are very tempting. Would normally stack the Rangers in this spot but without the roof open (it'll be closed) and that dominant Arizona bullpen I don't see the value in going that risky unless we're going heavy against the chalk SP Ray and in which case we would play the Rangers with Gerrit Cole most likely. Oh, the other side? Oh, nothing to see here ... Just Arizona in first game back at Chase against Martin Lefty Perez. Lineup starts with 2 Diamondbacks hitters tonight.

BLUE JAYS @ ATHLETICS ... Dave Stewart series. Seriously though, how good were these teams in the late 80's/Early 90's. I kind of always felt that the Athletics were the team that should have been used in Major League as the 'Enemy' team. They just had guys I hated to go against as a young Royals fan like Steinbach, Lansford, Henderson, Eckersley, Stewart, etc... Everyone points to McGuire and Canseco but those were the core guys I dreaded facing against. Don't get me wrong as a Baseball fan they were great, but man they were a pain in the ass... And the Blue Jays.. John Olerud, Joe Carter, Devon White, Robbie Alomar (when he went there) and that deep staff led by Jimmy Key and the underrated Juan Guzman.... Oh, uhhh. Tonight, we have Marco Estrada against Edwin Jackson. Huge ballpark and something tells me that these guys are gonna be "chalky". So far I have seen zero reason to consider either on FD because we don't have a huge strikeout matchup for either guy tonight. So if they are cheap (which they kinda are) on DK then there's your chalk SP2 plays today with Jackson being the chalkier one as the Athletics are much better. I like Estrada but don't think we should go there.

GIANTS @ PADRES ... Holland and Lauer both stink.... The Giants and Padres hitters both stink.... I bet you $100 that you can comb the interwebs today and find someone touting Holland, Lauer, Giants bats and Padres bats all as sneaky somewhere -- yet nobody is gonna lead with any of them. So when type scenario happens on a slate with 9 games, we pick the game up and throw it into a dumpster fire. Let someone else try to get cute with the Giants against that Padres solid bullpen. No Panik and No Belt at the Petco. And Cutch might be out? Yeah, no thanks.

Image result for animated gif throw it in the fire

BREWERS @ DODGERS ... Kenta Maeda is a fat fuck. Gimme all the Taco's in SoCal I can get tonight. Don't use Peralta against the Dodgers, that is suicide.

ASTROS @ MARINERS ... I always play Correa and Altuve in SafeCo. There's just one problem with that tonight. Yeah, they're on the DL. I can see Cole actually gaining some ownership tonight as he is consistently giving folks a decent floor but the upside just doesn't seem to be there. He has always been someone who has pitch count issues and he's not going 7 innings at all lately and on the road against the Mariners who look to be getting things back together is a rough spot. Great weather tonight in Seattle so the roof will be open, but it's relatively warm -- gotta let folks know that Cole is not winning them anything tonight but he also isn't gonna be the reason you lose if you play him. Paxton is all about the pitch count. Plain and simple, if we think he can go deep he is the arm. Houston is ice cold right now and without Altuve/Correa in that lineup I think they remain cold right now. Springer's lead off HR can only carry them so far.

PITCHING

Recommended Plays ...

  1. Robbie Ray ... Let's take the risk with the Rangers hitting a couple bombs tonight and roll with Ray at home and if you do not go Ray then I would roll Beltre+Chirinos against him tonight and play Gerrit Cole. Ray I think is going to pitch well at home tonight and give us enough strikeouts against that Rangers lineup which doesn't have the ability to string together long innings so even if he does give up a few bombs the high strikeout upside still puts him ahead of Cole. Forget the price savings tonight, Ray should match Cole in raw points, but he wont be perfect in his performance.
  2. Tyler Anderson ... St. Louis is weaker vs LHP and cooler temps in St. Louis usually means a low scoring game. Same price as Ray with less HR/blow-up risk but also less strikeout upside.

Other players I wouldnt mind using tonight include Gerrit Cole and Edwin Jackson (DK)....

HITTING

CATCHERS

Nick Hundley is my favorite play tonight in PETCO where he normally has a ton of success and faces the garbage can that is Eric Lauer. Chirinos and Flowers would be plays only if using Texas or Atlanta IMO, otherwise lock in Hundley and if he is out then just go to the others.

  1. Nick Hundley
  2. Robinson Chirinos
  3. Tyler Flowers

FIRST BASE

Justin Bour is the reason why I cannot go Julio Teheran tonight. That game has two great 1B pivots off the Goldy chalk tonight.

  1. Justin Bour
  2. Paul Goldschmidt
  3. Edwin Encarnacion
  4. Freddie Freeman

SECOND BASE

There is not a lot of obvious plays here like first base tonight, so this is the spot to utilize that contrarian stack above either with the Phils or the Brewers tonight.

  1. Cesar Hernandez
  2. Travis Shaw
  3. Jed Lowrie

THIRD BASE

One of my top 3 plays today is Moose in So-Cal. He is from LA and whenever he played the Angels we locked him in. Locking him in against Kenta.

  1. Mike Moustakas
  2. Christian Villanueva
  3. Adrian Beltre

SHORTSTOP

Escobar is much better vs RHP, however I am banking on the Rangers bringing in a RHP to face Goldy once Perez is bounced which makes guys like Escobar and Peralta fantastic lower owned plays in the Diamondbacks chalk stack. If he is out then Ahmed or Marte are the 'Zona pivots.

  1. Eduardo Escobar, Nick Ahmed, Ketel Marte
  2. Johan Camargo
  3. Elvis Andrus

OUTFIELD - Tier 1

Loaded group here. I think Rhys is going yard and Mookie should crush anything low from Nola if he gets the chance..... Pollock (Zona) and Rosario would be your core plays though to lock in w/ either Rhys or Mookie

  1. Rhys Hoskins
  2. Mookie Betts
  3. AJ Pollock
  4. Eddie Rosario

OUTFIELD - Tier 2

  1. Christian Yelich
  2. Cody Bellinger ... Milwaukee isnt gonna shut down Dodgers
  3. Ronnie Acuna Jr.
  4. Andrew McCutchen
  5. David Peralta

OUTFIELD - Value

  1. Roman Quinn
  2. Manny Margot
  3. Mags Sierra

DONGERS CLUB

  1. Mike Moustakas - 3B - Chairman
  2. Rhys Hoskins - OF
  3. Robinson Chirinos - C
  4. AJ Pollock - OF
  5. Justin Bour - 1B
  6. Jed Lowrie - 2B
  7. Johan Camargo - SS
  8. Mookie Betts - OF
  9. BONUS ..................................... Adrian Beltre - 3B

STACK TARGETS

ARIZONA ... This is the obvious chalk play of the night. Martin Perez is terrible and do not let the Rangers weekend sweep of Houston fool you into thinking that their bullpen is safe from being exposed even further. Arizona wont bat in the 9th inning tonight and if you think they do then you better not play Robbie Ray... So that means we lose a little bit of extra upside but thats usually the case this year with Zona at home and it hasn't mattered much. Goldschmidt and Pollock will be at the top of everyone's list tonight for Arizona, but I cannot wait to play Eduardo Escobar at home in a ballpark that really will cater to him.

MILWAUKEE ... This is a low owned sneaky play of the night. I think they thump Kenta Maeda and a mediocre Dodgers bullpen. Lots of lefties in a park that I prefer lefty power in such as Yelich (recent performance very good), Shaw, Thames (if he is in) and Yes.... SOCAL TACOOOOOO'S

COIN FLIP THIRD TEAM

PHILADELPHIA ... There are two games that are neck and neck tonight and they are the Indians/Twins and the Phils/Red Sox. Full disclosure, the entire world and common man will pick the Tribe/Twins over the Phils/Sox today simply because the pitchers slightly are better in the Fenway game and the bullpens are worse between the Tribe and Twins. That said, Santana and Bieber are both decent 5 to 6 inning options today and I think the Twins aren't as solid of a play without Escobar knocking them down. The Sox don't have the bottom of the lineup depth right now with Devers out and the Indians top plays are at the same positions as the Diamondbacks/Brewers top guys. Where as with the Phillies I can get some HR pop from 2B and OF without sacrificing my love for the corner infielders of the DBacks/Milwaukee plays. Rhys is going yard.

FADE

Twins & Indians ... Rosario or Jose Ramirez would be the only one off's and only used really on FD in the utility spot for me today. I prefer the Phils/Sox game

PLAYERS IM STARTING MY LINEUP WITH

1. Eduardo Escobar

2. Mike Moustakas

3. Rhys Hoskins

Good luck!