Pittsburgh @ Detroit : Light Rain and DANGEROUS Winds. 22 mph across the field from right to left... Hopefully they just play 2 on Sunday and cancel this game. If it does play, it's worth a small entry on the 7 game slate on DK.
All other games should play, however I wont be able to post any updates so keep an eye on things.
I am playing DK only early and doing one lineup only. So my plays are my top guys listed. Secondary pivots are for those of you doing multiple lineups.
Also, Rob Geriak will be doing the MAIN slate article for tonight. I will be back tomorrow (Sunday) with my normal Sunday write-up.
Michael Wacha ... Love Wacha today in this spot. Cards lost the opener and the whole world will gravitate over to Jake deGrom despite him coming into the season off some back issues in spring training. Wacha is good enough to be trusted for 100 pitches to start the season and in CitiField with 50 degree temps it's not a terribly risky spot. Wacha has also dominated A-Gone, Frazier and Jay Bruce in his career. They're a combined 9 for 64 off of him.
Cookie Carrasco ... So while Wacha is only 7900 on DK, we can afford to spend up a little bit, but I am not gonna go all the way up to Strasburg because right below him at $10.1 on DK is Cookie Carrasco, the one Indian SP I looove to roster -- especially on the road. Carrasco in his career has a 3.13 ERA away from Progressive Field with a 4.45 ERA at home. He's a guy who can easily strikeout 1+ batter per inning and he draws one of the weaker opponents on the slate (Seattle is NOT an early season hitting team). If you are playing a slate on FD that has Carrasco (why? Their slates suck today.) then lock him in.
Luis Castillo ... I gotta mention him only because he is dirt cheap on DK and he'll be higher owned than you think going against the Nationals. The kid has talent and is a darling in the industry among some. The temps here aren't great and I kinda hate the Nationals having Turner at the bottom of the order again. The strikeout upside can negate the damage that this Nationals lineup can do. Don't play him w/o a hedge stack.
GAMES TO TARGET
There are three games I am focused on for hitting on this slate and it might shock you which one is NOT included in that last.
ANGELS @ ATHLETICS ... This is my #1 game on this slate. While the other 3 games I list below have some positive factors associated with them, this is the one that leaped off the page to me. It's a 1PM local start so we have no shadows in Oakland to worry about and decent temps (upper 60's). The ballpark is huge but one thing we know is that Oakland has the bats to hammer the ball out and they usually RAKE in this afternoon games. Shoemaker and Mengden are NOT good and should easily be targetted here form both sides. Give me all the Khris Davis, Matt Olson, Kole Calhoun and Justin Upton I can handle from this game. I do NOT expect another 1-0 game here. And it will be VERY low owned.
ASTROS @ RANGERS ... One thing that is true about the MLB DFS industry is that 75% of the recommendations come from people who aren't watching the games or looking at past results to determine flow and feel. They're simply relying upon numbers and data. So with that said, Houston is absolutely going to be a chalk play again today in Texas after flopping last night. Heavy winds coming in from right field, shouldn't be the worst thing in the world but there's a good pivot off this game below.
Texas is the contrarian play in this game. Nobody will expect them to come out and win back to back. I think they not only win this game but also win tomorrow (waiting on Cole to pitch!!). Good spot for Elvis Andrus today.
YANKEES ... Sabathia vs Estrada -- two guys who can give up some heavy fly balls and two guys who are very familiar with the opposing lineups. The Yankees are again the much better stack and not just beacuse of their lineup but because the Yanks bullpen is stout. I mentioned this on our livestream yesterday, when you stack AGAINST the Yankees you better pray you get that HR early off the starter. The bullpen is too good to stack against. Many will look at the BvP numbers for Estrada and load up on Judge, Stanton, Sanchez and Walker who combined have 11 homers off Estrada. Well, duh, Estrada is a fly ball pitcher, he gives up bombs. Don't sleep on my boy Day Game Didi Gregorius here. He has looked great the first couple of games to start the season.
Game I don't love but you can pick from to fill in ....
NATS @ REDS ... It's in the smallest park on the slate. Not great hitting env and two good swing and miss pitchers. Swing and miss rates are important. The only person who says they aren't also said that Chase Field would be a top 5 pitchers park this season. So we can throw everything he says out the window. Login to DK and find DerekCarty and beat his ass in H2H. #ScoutArmy
- Gary Sanchez - DK auto play. Catcher is a good fade spot on FD today.
- Bruce Maxwell - I would advise you to either pay for Sanchez or go straight to the bottom and look at a player from a stack. Maxwell for Oakland fits perfect if he is in. If not, go Lucroy.
- Matt Olson - My #1
- Joey Gallo - Sneaky
- Albert Pujols - Loves OAK, should get lots of RBI chances.
- Kendrys Morales - Decent BvP against Sabathia.
- Jose Altuve - Today the position isn't as weak, but he will be extremely popular vs a lefty and is in a good spot. I'm fine fading but don't expect him to not do anything today.
- Jed Lowrie
- Rougned Odor
- Scootah Gennett - I said one offs from Nats/Reds to fill in.... This is one of em.
THIRD BASE - This is the weak spot
- Matt Chapman
- Valbuena/Marte - Whomever is Third for the Angels
- JD Davis - A longshot HR call
- Anthony Rendon
Holy cow, again with SS being stocked early to start the season.
- Day game Didi Gregorious - 3600 on DK is a steal -- especially compared to 4900 Correa
- Zack Cozart
- Marcus Semien
- Elvis Andrus
OUTFIELD - TIER 1
- Giancarlo Stanton & Aaron Judge - Against a fly ball soft tosser like Estrada. Duh...
- Khris Davis
- Justin Upton
- Kole Calhoun over Mike Trout wins all the $
OUTFIELD - Tier 2
- Matt Joyce
- Joey Gallo - Can play him on DK in OF...
- Brett Gardner
- Adam Eaton
OUTFIELD - VALUE TIER
- Dexter Fowler
- Matt Adams
- Delino DeShields - Interesting to consider on a TEX stack with him Gallo and Andrus
THE DONGERS CLUB
- Didi Gregorious - SS - Chairman
- Gary Sanchez - C
- Matt Olson - 1B
- Scooter Gennett - 2B
- Khris Davis - OF
- Kole Calhoun - OF
- Anthony Rendon - 3B
- Justin Upton - OF
- BONUS ............. Elvis Andrus - SS
- Angels/Athletics OVER
- Rangers +174 ML
- Indians -113 ML
Side Note .... Some of you who are new to MLB need to understand that if you send me a lineup asking for help and you haven't read my article I am going to send you right here. Think about this for a moment. Would you want me to tell you that a player you have listed who I didn't take the time to write-up is a recommendation? No. You wouldn't. So don't shoot me your lineup and ask for thoughts if you haven't read this. If you have and it has players who aren't in here or I clearly state I don't like, then don't expect me to give a favorable response. That doesn't mean you shouldnt follow your gut when it's there. But don't get pissed when I disagree with it!!!!!!!!