It already feels like August to me, and finally tomorrow I can actually type August without looking like a bafoon. Anyways... I did a quick snapshot earlier today on the 6 new games that begin today (new series with teams who didn't play last night). If you didnt read it, check it out. The basis of it is that for those who struggle with the large slates, we should break them up somehow and one way to do that is look at the teams who didnt play yesterday and see what your game theory is on the new series starting up versus the ones that DID play last night. Like, do you think Zona loses again to Texas? No. Me neither. But I can tell you right now I want a ton of Joey Gallo vs Zack Godley -- sooo if 'Zona is gonna win then we'll likely have some 'Zona hitters.. Thats just one thought pattern example.
Some rain in the Cubs-Pirates game but no PPD threat as of now. Same with Reds-Tigers.
Roof will be closed in Arizona again.
I covered all the new series in my other write-up this morning, here's a few one liners on the games carrying over from last night
- Phils @ Sox ... I feel this game has more runs tonight than last night (BOLD TAKE!)... No seriously, we gotta pick on Pomeranz at home in 80+ degree temps and Arrieta wont be no breeze tonight either. Good bullpens but they got taxed last night.
- Fish @ Braves ... Some more showers around this game as well and honestly the park isn't exploding as much as we hoped this year. But Straily in ATL is disaster folks. DIS-AS-TER. The rookie for the Braves is interesting but won't get through the Marilns lineup clean a second time. Bour-Realmuto-Castro mini train is not bad. But I love ATL.
- Indians @ Twins ... Parrot's turn
- Rockies @ Cards ... Cards wont beat Rockies again
- Rangers @ D'Backs ... See above, Rangers wont beat DBacks again, but Godley should get murdered by Texas ... So do the math.
- Jays @ A's ... Gaviglio is so overrated but this ballpark will help him out.
- Astros @ Mariners ... Astros losing streak versus the height theory, what gives? Leake is 5'10
- Brewers @ Dodgers ... Feels like LA explodes on Miley. Remember what I wrote over the weekend about the Dodgers? Go back to it.
- Tyler Skaggs ... Skaggs should be able to manage the Rays lineup tonight, which in my mind hits RHP better these days. Skaggs is steadily consistent and I think will match Bauer tonight so for nearly 2k cheaper on DK he's a quick pivot for me. I prefer him slightly over Charlie Morton at the same price range, but they're honestly neck and neck. I gotta use my height theory to go against Morton getting run support tonight, so Skaggs chasing the win here is my preferred play.
- Charlie Morton .. See above, I prefer Skaggs slightly just because of CMort maybe not getting run support, but as the day progresses I'll try to judge who is lower owned and share if there is a huge difference.
- Jon Gray ... This game has two darling arms priced similarly between Gray and Flaherty. One huge difference. Jack going more than 5 innings is RARE and I hate pitchers in DFS who only go 5 innings unless they're bare bottom priced. For the 9k range I need someone who I feel good about winning and Colorado should whomp the Cardinals bullpen tonight. Gray will need to get us 7 innings in my mind to be really worth it, but in that ballpark against a team now without Pham too I like his chances here today.
- Danny Duffy ... Duffy in Chicago is something I always like to roll with. He has taken back the lead as the Royals best pitcher and seems to be relishing in that role. The White Sox hottest hitters are on the left side of the plate as Abreu is starting to cool off (he's still been good lately), but overall there's cooler temps here and strikeout upside for Duffy tonight.
- Steven Matz ... Who knows what El Nationals -- the most emotionally insecure team in the game -- will do today, but Matz has fared well against them and lets be honest the Nationals aren't exactly a rolling offensive machine. They're complete boom or bust and a lefty should have success against them as they return home. With Harper staying put we could see them go on a little bit of a run, however I'd roll Matz tonight in a spot where I think nobody else will.
- Mike Leake ... Astros height theory co-chairman
CORE TEAMS TO BUILD AROUND
- Diamondbacks ... They should hit Colon, words we have written about EVERY team this year. But no, seriously. This is a great lineup with Escobar batting second and I would start with them again tonight.
- Braves ... They should really beat up Straily and I expect Albies to have a bounce back game tonight. When the Braves are chalk I would recommend their bottom of the lineup, but when they're not it's the studs at the top. Markakis should be the difference maker today. Nobody plays him but he's a must if you go Atlanta for me.
- Phillies ... I don't mind picking on Pomeranz in good weather in Fenway any day of the week... Back on the Rhy$ bandwagon tonight with Franco and Asdrubal.
SNEAKY HIGH UPSIDE
- Dodgers ... Dodgers vs Lefties is a thing to jump on board with. Muncy is great vs LHP, Machado we know about and Kemp obviously better on that side too. Throw in Taylor and Barnes and there's enough here to ruin this whole Wade Miley is "Good" bullshit.
- EDIT ... I honestly didn't mean to put them in the 'SNEAKY' SECTION. They are gonna be my FADE tonight but they have upside if you want to go here.... Bad writing by me!!! Yankees ... They made a living last year off beating up on the Orioles at home and making some DFS touts look smart. Tonight they're gonna have to give you 3-4 HR early but folks are starting to think Yefry is a decent arm. I wouldnt mind chasing the Bronx Bombers today Gardy-Didi-Hicks-Bird
- Royals ... Nobody will use them because they're the Royals. Like Salvy and Duda the most here but the Sox pen is pretty bad too so we can get some extra inning magic from guys like Whit and Bonifacio.
- Salvador Perez ... Heating up at the right time as he has series in Chicago and Minnesota this week. Jump on the SalvySplash train.
- JT Realmuto ... Second best C behind Salvy tonight.
- Austin Barnes ... Cheap play who should be in tonight I think against a lefty (Miley) that I don't believe in as much as other folks do.
- Robinson Chirinos
Solid depth here, but it's Salvy and JT above everyone else IMO.
- Freddie Freeman ... That whole write-up I did on Sunday about how it feels like Freddie has gone forever without a huge HR binge? Yeah, Uhh... It's here.
- Edwin Encarnacion ... E5 rakes in Target and owns Kyle Gibson. His turn tonight.
- Paul Goldschmidt ... Duh
Normally I would look at the list above and say, hey Steve, nice job listing out three of the best players in the game, how about a little mid-range pick? Well it's a valid point as I refer to myself here in the third person, but all three really stand out at the top for me today and none are 5k or more on DK tonight, so we can afford them. The fourth option would be Joey Galho, but I am saving him for the OF spot.
- Ozzie Albies
- Rougned Odor
- Starlin Castro
Love Ozzie against Straily and Odor in Chase vs Godley is a nice matchup.
- Eduardo Escobar ... He nearly missed a HR in his first AB last night and should continue to go 3-4 or better in Chase Field and now tonight he's getting a RHP which I prefer a ton. Better be batting second behind Peralta and ahead of Goldschmidt .... That's all I know.
- Manny Machado ... Best chance for a HR at this spot, could definitely see a HR binge in his first series in L.A.
- Mike Moustakas ... I wont run away from my SoCal pick that easy
- Maikel Franco ... Pomeranz sucks
I refuse to write up Jose Ramirez, of course he is a good play as he was last night but this is about finding the pivots that can beat the best 3B in the American League right now.
- Jurickson Profar ... Love Profar tonight if riding on the Rangers again
- Asdrubal Cabrera ... Good upside here in a game with warm temps, should be 5% owned.
- Didi Gregorius ... The chalk east coast play tonight, I have him ranked 4th because I am NOT using him personally.
OUTFIELD - Tier 1
- Rhys Hoskins
- Joey Gallo
- AJ Pollock
- Matt Kemp
OUTFIELD - Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna
- Jon Jay/David Peralta - whichever leads off
- Mark Trumbo
- Michael Conforto
OUTFIELD - Tier 3
- Alex Gordon
- Jacoby Jones
- Jorge Bonifacio
- Brett Gardner
- Shin-Soo Choo ... Price dropped due to a cold streak, but cmon, he is too cheap on FD tonight
- Melky Cabrera
- Eduardo Escobar - 3B - Chairman
- Joey Gallo - OF
- Asdrubal Cabrera - SS
- Freddie Freeman - 1B
- Ozzie Albies - 2B
- Salvador Perez - C
- Michael Conforto - OF
- Mark Trumbo - OF
- BONUS .................. Manny Machado - 3B