MLB DFS- Fastballs and Flyballs 4/2
This article will give you an early look at the top pitchers and hitters on the slate geared for cash and single entry contests.
Listed will be my favorite pitchers, bats and team/s to target on the slate in additional to a value arm or dark horse and a few value bats.
Utilize this article along with The Donger's Club & Cycle articles by Steve Renner and Chris Rose.
This is a chart of today's pitcher with their stats vs LHHs(left handed hitter) & RHHs(right handed hitters) otherwise known as splits. The green shows above average vs that specific split, while the red shows below average (target bats vs this pitcher). This chart can be used to help choose a pitcher and or bats. All stats are from the 2018 season.
Max Scherzer, Chris Sale, Justin Verlander- 10k + pitchers
These 3 arms are all over 10K and I would rank them Scherzer, Sale and Verlander. Worth a look if you can afford them and come up with a solid linuep. There are some solid options listed below in the mid range which offer some upside tonight.
Ryu pitched very well in his first appearance this year throwing 6 innings and only giving 1 ER, which was a HR and he struck out 8 batters. He pitched very well at home in 2018 posting a 1.15 ERA and only allowing 3 HRs over 54 innings. The thing about Ryu is he is he pitches well vs RHHs striking out 10 batters per 9 innings 29% K rate and only allowed a .254 wOBA in 2018. Giants should throw out 4-5 RHHs tonight and the LHHs don't hit very well vs LHP. He faces the SF Giants tonight who are picking up right where they left off last year a team to target pitchers against most nights. Starting off the season batting .174 with only 2 HRs. I expect Ryu to go 6-7 innings give up a run or two and strike out 7 batters.
First game out Berrios threw 7.2 innings and struck out 10 batters allowing only 2 hits and 1 run vs a beat up Indains lineup. Tonight he faces off against the Royals that is starting off batting .221 with 0 HRs vs RHP. Berrios has a 25% K rate and should do well vs the current Royals lineup which has shown to strike out at a 24% clip vs RHPs (only batter under 20% is Merrifield). I expect 7 innings 1-2 ER and 8ks.
In his first outing Freeland pitched 7 innings vs the Marlins and only allowed 2 hits and 1 run while striking out 5 batters. His ability to limit HRs, especially on the road (only 6 allowed over 112 innings on the road) and keep the ball on the ground close to 50% of the time will help him vs the Rays in a pitcher friendly park. Most of the Rays power comes from the left side of the plate and Freeland has done an excellent job at limiting LHHs to a .179 average, .4 HR/9 and striking them out at a 10K/9 clip. I expect 6 innings 2 ER and 6Ks.
Vargas had a rough start to the 2018 season with a 8.60 ERA, but calmed down a bit over the second half dropping his ERA to 3.81. He is only 5.6K on DK and worth a look as a second pitcher. I don’t expect a big game from Vargas tonight, but I do think he can limit the damage and potentially go 5 innings allow 2-3 runs and stike out 5-6 batters.
DarkHorse will be posted in slack chat close to lock tonight.
Houston Astros- The Astros get to face off vs Shelby Miller tonight who has been an absolute mess over most of his MLB career, especially in the last 3 years. In 2018 over 17 innings he gave up 19 runs, 5 HRs . In 2017 he pitched 21 innings and gave up 10 runs. This spring he allowed 12 hits, 5 runs over 8.2 innings. The bottom line here is that Miller has not shown he can pitch well at the major league level. Also add in that the Ranger bullpen has allowed 12 runs over 18 innings (5.79 ERA) walking 14 batters and allowing .301 average and 4 HRS. Add in that Globe Life Park allowed the most runs last year. Nice park for hitters. Bats to target- Springer, Bregman, Brantley & Correa
If Tyler White and or Jake Marisnick make the lineup they are both worth consideration. White has power vs RHP with 9 HRs in 151 at bats (.357wOBA and .245 ISO & Marisnick has altered his swing a bit during the off season and has hit well in spring training and early on this year. He has also hit well vs RHP and in Globe Life Park and has speed upside. Contrarian look. If Marisnick is out switch to Reddick-White, Marisnick or Reddick, Springer, Bregman
This is a good spot tonight for Bregman and the Astros (see above under team). Bregman had an excellent season last year showing some additional power last year jumping from 19 HRs in 2017 to 31 in 2018. Posted a .287 average, .390 wOBA, .243 ISO and 36% HC vs RHP last year.
Martinez is starting off the season strong with 7 hits in his first 17 at bats and hit 2 HRs. Tonight he faces Mike Fiers who allowed a .335 wOBA, 1.85 HRs/9 and a 39% HC rate last year. This is a good spot for Martinez tonight as hits 35 HRs vs RHP last year a slightly higher percent over LHP (6.5% RHP vs 5% LHP). Also add in that Martinez matches up well vs Fiers pitch types- throws a fastball around 88-89 and Martinez has a .600 xwOBA, .701 ISO, 48 % HC and a 96 EV. Fiers throws the changeup as his 2nd pitch and Martinez hits that well also. Martinez & Bogaerts are my 2 favorite Red Sox bats. Double Dong potential tonight.
Enrique "Kike" Hernandez
Kike has done well vs Bumgarner with 19 hits on 39 at bats with 4 HRs and 5 doubles. I expect him to lead off again tonight vs a left handed pitcher and in the lead off spot he has posted a 1.229 OPS, .409 batting average with a .409 ISO last season. He should be a popular play tonight and for good reason. Justin Turner and A.J. Pollack also hit well vs LHP.
Haniger is starting off this season with a bang hitting in six straight games(no hits in first game in Japan) with 3 of this mutli-hit games. The Mariners face off against Trevor Cahill tonight who got hit up in his first appearance allowing 6 hits and 4 runs over 6 innings. I expect the hot hitting Mariners to do well vs Cahill tonight in T-Mobile Park where the ball has been flying out of.
Nimmo had a solid season last year hitting 14 HRs in 300 at bats vs RHP last year posting a .407 wOBA, .246 ISO and 37% HC rate.
Peter O'Brien- low ownership HR. O'Brien has shown power upside vs LHP in limited time in the majors. .458 wOBA, .333 ISO and 62% HC last year (50% HC in 2016- did not play in majors 2017). He faces off against Jason Vargas who has allowed a 40% FB ratio, 35% HC and just shy of 2 HRs/9 in 2018.
Starting off the season hitting well. Hits in all 4 games this year with 2 HRs. Hits well vs LHP
Jake Marisnick(or Josh Redick, who ever starts) & Tyler White(see Astros)