This article is a quick look at some of my favorite pitchers, teams and hitters on this massive 15 game slate. For a more detailed article take a look at Steve Renner’s Dinger Club.
This will be the first time Cole gets to face his old team and I see him stepping it up a tonight. The Pirates don’t tend to strike out much, but they are facing the top strike out arm tonight with his 38% K rate. Add in that the Pirates are in the bottom 5 in HRs and bottom 10 in runs scored. I don’t see many paying up today due to the large slate and big $ bats and if they do I see them going towards Scherzer. Both are in good spots, but I prefer the savings on Cole in his revenge spot. Looking at 7 innings 8-9 Ks and 1 ER.
I was all over Drew Pomeranz last night and his is a much better situation. Pom went 5 innings struck out 11 Rockies. On the road this year the Rockies are not the same team and have a much higher K rate (30 % K rate on the road this year and over the past 30 day). Bumgarner is a better pitcher than Pomeranz and should go 6-7 innings with 7-8 Ks and 2 ERs.
VALUE ARM/DARK HORSE
Chavez was named the 5th starter last time out and we saw 5 solid innings from him. Could see him throw closer to 70 pitches today and a nice value vs the Tigers at only 5.3 K on DK. Tigers have a 26% K rate and a .233 average vs RHP over the last 30 days and are not any better in the year. Looking at 5 innings 2 ERs and 6 Ks.
Attacking 2 of the worst pitchers and bullpens.
The Padres head into Camden Yards, which is a nice park upgrade and get some warm weather tonight. They face off against Yacabonis for a few innings then Rogers (allowed 5 HRs in 11 innings) and the Os bullpen (6.84 ERA and 2 HRs/9 over last 30 days.
Padres have a good amount of power in the lineup and could hit 4+ HRs tonight. Most of team is in play tonight.
CORE: Machado, Renfroe, Reyes
VALUE: Kinsler, Hedges
Phillies face off against Walker Lockett and the Mets bullpen at home tonight. Mets pen has allowed a 7.85 ERA and 2.3 HRs/9 over the past 30 days. Excellent hitters park with some nice weather.
CORE: Hoskins, Harper, Realmuto, Bruce
Dodgers get a nice park upgrade And some hot weather with the roof open tonight. They face Robbie Ray who has allowed over 2 HRs/9 to LHHs Putin’s Max Muncy in play and a bit over 1 HR/9 to RHHs at home. Hernandez, Turner and Taylor are are all reasonable priced. Barnes or Martin make nice catching options.
Conforto hit very well last night going 3-4 with a double and HR in his favorite park Citizens Bank Park. Over the past 3 years (18) games he is hitting .342 with 10 HRs and 3 HRs this year in only 4 games. He gets an excellent matchup tonight vs Jake Arrieta who has trouble with LHHs allowing a .383 wOBA and 2.2 HRs/9. Along with the good matchup and park Conforto is hitting the ball well as of late with a increase in battered ball and a 42% FB rate. Should be another good night. Conforto cane be used with McNeil, D. Smith, Alonso.
Hoskins and the Phillies face off against Walker Lockett who got lit up in his first start for 6 runs over 2.1 innings. He is coming into this game hitting the ball well as of late with increase in battered ball and HRs in 2 of his last 3 games. The Phillies are at home in some very nice weather and get to face the Mets bullpen once Lockett is done (7.85 era and 2.3 HRs/9 over last 30 days).
Machado is back in Camden Yards on Fire in a revenge spot. Muliple hits in 8 of his last 10 games with a few 3 and 4 hit games and 6 HRs in that timeframe. Os pitching staff is trash and Camden Yards is an excellent hitter park. Hard to pass up on him and some of the Padres tonight. Machado and Renfroe my favorite, but can use most of Padres.
Good spot for the Red Sox tonight with most people focusing on the Yankees 7.4 run total. Betts is starting to heat up and gets an excellent matchup agains Carson Fulmer tonight at home. Betts, Martinez and Bogaerts are always a good combo RvR with some Bradley Jr. and
Jackie Bradley Jr.- streak is not over yet and gets a nice matchup tonight.
JacobyJones- vs a RHP that struggles with righties.
Alex Dickerson (OF)- Kid has some power and gets a nice matchup tonight.
Kike Hernandez- should lead off vs a lefty. nice park for bats.
JT Riddle- .5% HR tonight.
Manny Pina/Austin Hedges (C) both in excellent spots tonight