MLB DFS Fastballs & Flyballs 7/30/2019
A 14 game slate with some Coors Field and other solid hitting environments tonight. A lot of options and listed below are my favorite pitchers, teams and hitters.
Odorizzi has been mediocre with a few blow ups as of late. Tonight he gets an excellent matchup vs the Marlins who are not hitting well vs RHP over the past 30 days with a .228 average and 27% K rate. On the year Odorizzi is holding RHH’s to a .178 average and a 24% K rate. The Marlins lineup mainly consists of right handed bats. I can see him going 6-7 innings allowing 2 runs and striking out 7 hitters.
Also consider Griffin Canning vs the Tigers.
Canning started off the year pitching well, but has going down hill as of late. Tonight he gets a very good matchup vs the Tigers who are coming in hitting .218 and striking out at a 30% clip vs RHP over the past 30 days.
Wainwright has pitched very well at home this year posting a 2.33 ERA, .233 average and under 1 HR/9. He has also pitched well vs the Cubs lineup in the past. Cubs are striking out at a 26% clip vs RHP over the last 30 days.
Mugrove has pitched well for the most part this year. He has limited HRs to around 1 per game and keeps the ball on the ground close to 50% of the time. Strikes out RHHs at a 25% clip and the Reds current lineup is striking out at a 27% clip vs RHP on the year. Cheap option that should go 5-6 innings allow a few runs and strike out 6-7 hitters.
NY Yankees vs Taylor Clarke(Clarke has allowed a .319 average, 2.4 HRs/9 and a 40% HC rate to RHHs this year).
*8 out of the 9 hitters have over a .200 ISO vs RHP on the year.
*Hicks, Judge, Voit, Torres & Higashioka are my favorites.
Sneaky team- Diamondbacks vs Happ (allowed over 2 HRs/9 vs both sides of the plate at home this year). Hot with wind in New York tonight.
*Marte, Escobar and Kelly all have over a .300 ISO vs LHP this year with Walker and Flores hitting well also. Yasmany Tomas who hits LHP Well and hit 29 HRs in AAA before coming up.
Urias vs Freeland.
Dodgers get the better matchup as Freeland has been getting crushed this year.
~Freeland has been a bit worse vs RHH’s but has been getting crushed by both sides. He has pitched a bit better over his last 2 starts and the Dodgers have struggled a bit vs LHP on the year. Over the last 30 Days the Dodgers are hitting .212 with a 26% K rate vs LHP. If you decide not to use the Dodgers Freeland is dirt cheap and could go 4-5 innings and strike out a few batters and pay off his salary.
*Pollack, Turner my favorite bats with Bellinger coming in next.
*Urias has pitched well enough against the Rockies.
Bell has elite power (.403 wOBA and .323 ISO vs RHP) and he heads into one of the better ballparks for HRs. Tanner Roark is in the mound for the Reds and in the year he has struggled vs LHHs allowing them a .393 wOBA and just shy of 2 HRs/9. Bell has shown he can hit Roark with 4 hits in 9 at bats. All of those hit went for extra bases ( 2 HRs and 2 doubles). Stack with Dickerson, Moran and Reynolds.
This is an elite spot for Ohtani and the Angles tonight as the face VerHagen who has allowed 6 or more runs in the past 2 games. On the year Ohtani has just shy of a .400 wOBA. .279 ISO and 50 % HC rate against RHP. Let’s look at VerHagen’s pitches. He throws mostly sliders and sinkers. Ohtani hits the slider well and destroys the sinker. Good chance he goes yard tonight. Stack with Trout, Thaiss & Upton.
Beckham is coming into this game with some nice increases to battered ball. His hard contact has seen an increase of 11%, hit distance is up by 63 feet and fly ball rate of 56% over the past 15 days. Excellent spot tonight vs Jurado who struggles vs RHH’s. On the year Beckham has over a .250 ISO vs RHP. Game is in Texas tonight with close to 100 degree weather. Ball should fly out. Stack with VogelDong & Nola.
*Also consider AndrewBenintendi- He is coming into this game on fire and has shown he can take Morton deeeeeep.
* Travis d’Arnaud Has destroyed LHP this year. Will be very hot in Fenway with 10 mph wind blowing out.
Matt Thaiss- kid has pop. Hits both of VerHagens top 2 pitches very well.
Adam Duvall- swinging a hot bat since coming back up. Nice matchup vs Fedde. Value stack with McCann and Inciarte.
Tyler Austin- HR tonight!
Matt Duffy/d’Arnaud Mini stack.
Yasmani Tomas- lefty crusher