We have a short three-game slate on both sites this afternoon which obviously limits our options, specifically when building multiple lineups.
In this article, I’m going to lay out the groundwork to build off in three to five entry max contests. When playing these types of contests, I find that I have the most success when I have a core, (generally one pitcher on FD and two on DK with a three-player stack and one to two one-off bats) that will find their way into 100% of my lineups. The idea of locking in a core is to limit, for lack of a better term, “randomness” across our lineups. By mixing and matching a few bats around our core across all lineups, we’re able to rule out some tough lineup decisions we may face while not getting completely overwhelmed with a large pool of players.
Below I’ve outlined the pitchers, stacks, and one-offs that I’m considering incorporating into my core for tonight.
Michael Fulmer (DET)
Fulmer is priced at 7.2K on both sites this afternoon and is the guy that I'm locking in on both FD and DK. Simply put, I don't trust Danny Duffy against a Tigers team that hit lefties well and I don't feel the need to pay up for Dallas Keuchel, a guy who in my mind has limited upside, specifically against a dangerous A's team. Those reasons mainly are what make me lean on Fulmer. The righty was limited to 77 pitches in his last start, his first start in over a month after a DL stint but should be a full go in this outing tonight. At his salary, he will help you pay up for some appealing bats while being productive against a Royals team that he's had success against.
Alec Mills (CHC)
Mills is the SP2 play I'm locking in on DK. He's priced at 5.8K and is coming off of a good outing against the Reds in which he went 5.2 innings, allowed three hits, one earned run, and struck out eight. The wind will play a bit of a factor here blowing in from left at 10-plus miles-per-hour. The Mets have scored 24 runs in their last 9 games and in two of those they scored six and five respectively. The offense is atrocious on a day to day basis. Mills will pitch well and should go five-plus again and earn a win at a great salary.
Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo, David Bote
Jason Vargas is a disaster and has been just that of late other than a good start against the Nationals who have pretty much quit as a team, outside of beating the fuck out of the Mets bullpen this past weekend and beating the Phillies bullpen last night. Vargas has been killed by the Orioles and Phillies with a 6.49 and 4.47 FIP respectively. Righties have a .393 wOBA against Vargas and he's allowed 2.02 HR/9 along with a 17.5 HR/FB rate. Baez has a .397 wOBA, .288 ISO, 31.8 percent HR/FB rate, and a 39 percent hard-hit rate against lefties. Bote, who's burst onto the scene, has a .428 wOBA, .273 ISO, 48 percent hard-hit rate, and a 25 percent hard-hit rate against southpaws. Rizzo slides in here hitting the ball well over his last 13 games with a 41 percent hard-hit rate and a 37 percent fly-ball rate. Over this stretch, Rizzo has six doubles, five home runs, and seven multi-hit games. God knows what the lineup Joe Maddon throws out here, but ideally, these three bats will be in the top five of the order this afternoon and be productive.
Top One-off Bat
More often than not these are value/underpriced high upside bats, otherwise, they could be bats that I simply have to have in all of my lineups. At times they’ll serve as salary relief allowing you to mix and match some exposure with higher-priced bats throughout our lineups.
Nick Castellanos (DET)
Castellanos has been a lefty killer all season and faces one whom he's had some moderate success against in the past. While he's 10-36 against Duffy (.278 average for the people that still care about batting average) four of those hits have gone for extra bases (two doubles, one triple, and one home run). Against lefties, this season Castellanos has posted a .460 wOBA, .225 ISO, 51 percent hard-hit rate, and a 23 percent HR/FB rate. Castellanos will be the first outfielder I lock in today.