Let's do this a little different, just today. Instead of loading you guys with stats/data and a bunch of acronyms let's keep it light, simple, and straightforward. Sound good? I thought so. Don't worry, We'll get back to the normal book-type write-ups on Monday! YES!
*Important note. There are two doubleheaders today, slates mixed around all over the place between the two sites and general Saturday mayhem on top of everything else. I've outlined all of my preferred plays for the entire day of games (16) and added which slate I like these players on, based on the information I have (i.e. which pitchers are pitching which game of their doubleheader.)
Weather and Park Factors
All games play
Brewers at Cubs (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - Temps in the mid-40's with wind blowing in from left at 14 miles per hour. The wind plays a significant role in Wrigley Field.
Rays at Red Sox (Early) - Temps touching the low 70's with wind blowing out to left at eight to ten miles per hour.
Mariners at Indians (Early) - Wind blowing in from left at 14 miles per hour.
Tigers at Orioles (Main) - Steady wind blowing in from left at around 10 to 12 miles per hour.
Lance McCullers (HOU) (Main)
McCullers has been good in all but one start this season, a road start against the Twins where walks were a major issue. McCullers is pitching at home tonight against a dangerous A's team but McCullers' strikeout upside is through the roof here and throughout his career, he's been a dominant pitcher. He's allowed two or less earned runs in four of his five starts and has gone six innings and seven innings respectively in each of his last two outings. I prefer McCullers on FD at his sub-9K salary on Saturday's main slate.
David Price (BOS) (Early)
Price faces a suddenly red-hot Rays team that has won seven straight and averaged over seven runs per game over that stretch. Price has shut down the Rays twice this season going 14 innings, seven in each start, and allowing just seven hits and no earned runs. Tampa is due to cool off, it's just the facts, people and Price will handle them today. The former Ray draft pick is another guy I prefer on FD rather than DK.
Alex Wood (LAD) (Main)
Derek Carty's favorite pitcher in the world will start game one of the Dodgers-Giants doubleheader in San Fran today. The Giants offense has struggled overall but especially against left-handed pitching with a team K rate of 25.4 percent, ISO of .137, and wOBA of .281. In his first start of the season, Wood shut the Giants down going eight innings and allowing just one hit while striking out five. The lefty is in play on both sites for me as he's sub-9K on FD and DK.
Carson Fulmer (CWS) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK)
The talented prospect bounced back in his last outing going six strong allowing just two earned runs against the Mariners. There's no doubt that this is a value option on both FD ($5,700) and DK ($4,500) against a Royals team that features a few dangerous bats in Moose, Salvy, Whit, and recently Jorge Soler. Lucas Duda has sucked lately so no need to worry about that fuckin' guy (ok, I'm bitter). In all seriousness, I love Fulmer's stuff and have been following him since his days back at Vanderbilt. I can live with taking a chance with him, especially on FD's short rake-grabbing "very early" slate. What the hell is that?? 2 P.M. Eastern is "very early"? Sure.
German Marquez (COL) (Main)
Ok, let's get this straight. The Marlins are terrible. Their lineup is dogshit. I don't care what they did to the greatest pitcher I've ever seen the other night, that shit happens. They are god awful. Marquez has not exactly been confusing anyone with Nolan Ryan here to start the season but he's cheap on both sites, is pitching in a great park, and should get some offense behind him to pick up a win.
Walker Buehler (LAD) (Early)
If I hear another Ferris Buehler joke I'm gonna freak out. Walker will pitch game two of this doubleheader with the Giants and could, COULD see a lineup full of scrubs, which let's be honest, can't be much worse offensively than some of the guys that we regularly see Bruce Bochy trot out there. Walker is good. Really fucking good. I don't care if he pitched against the Marlins in his first start. Seeing Dave "Training Wheels" Roberts let him throw 89 pitches in his first start opened my eyes after I fully expected Buehler to get pulled after 65 pitches in four innings with Robert's saying "hell of a job their kid" or some sentimental bullshit. He didn't do that and it makes me like Buehler that much more tonight against a Giants lineup that can't hit in a good pitchers park, especially at night.
I have a theory on Masahiro Tanaka. He's a fucking fraud. This concludes my analysis... Ok, I'll go a bit further here. Tanaka is one of these guys like Michael Pineda was that is either dominant or a nightmare-disaster. There is no in-between here. In his last start, he allowed one earned run, in the two starts prior to that he allowed 11 earned runs. That's not good. These Tanaka people baffle me, much like the Pineda, Rich Hill, and Kevin Gausman people. Tanaka especially sucks when Gary Sanchez catches him, which I would suspect will be the case as the Yankees will want all of their bats in there against Garrett Richards. In 33 starts spanning over 193.1 innings pitched with Sanchez "catching", Tanaka has a 4.47 ERA, 45 walks, 191 hits, and 38 home runs allowed. Good god. Give me all of the Mike Trout who lives to hit the low ball, Justin Upton, and Ian Kinsler on the top-end as far as salaries go. Luis Valbuena and Kole Calhoun are two guys I like that bring some value.
I love the Mariners early. They were shut down by Kluber last night which was a foregone conclusion in some ways after his Sunday struggles with the Orioles. Carrasco is coming off of three great starts and is scheduled for a blow-up. It's what he does. I've been down this road before and seen this happen too many times. We are well aware that Carrasco has been with the Indians for a while so these numbers are pretty relevant here. Take them or leave them. Carlos Carrasco has pitched in Progressive Field 89 times in his career for a total of 459.1 innings, 73 of those outings are starts. His ERA there is 4.37 and he's allowed 61 home runs. Yikes. Robinson Cano has hit Carrasco well in the past, Kyle Seager loves hitting in Cleveland with a .378 average, 10 doubles, and five home runs there in 23 games, Haniger is still red-hot after going yiketty off of Kluber last night, and Nelly Cruz is starting to come around. Those are my guys.
I'd be a complete moron if I didn't mention them against Mike Leake who got his ass kicked in his last start in Chicago against the White Sox and looked like garbage the start before at home against Houston. The tribe played home run derby last night and will subsequently be chalk today. If you want to eat some of it, I wouldn't blame you. Just remember... lefties in Cleveland. Frankie, Jose, Yonder, Brantley, and Kip in that order of preference for me.
Reds (Very Early on FD, Early on DK)
The Reds and Twins both took some extra BP last night so they should be ready to roll this afternoon. In all seriousness, Jake Odorizzi is in trouble here. He sucks against righties especially and isn't much better against lefties. Better, but still mediocre at best. Target Field favors right-handed hitters with power. Jake sucks against righties. Everyone, IT'S GENNNNNOOOO DAY. I'll start with Geno Suarez and grab Adam Duvall after a good night last night with two doubles. From here, find a bat or two with them that fit with your build. My next three in order after Geno and DongerDuvall are Scooter, Votto, and Scott Schebler with more power upside than Jesse Winker.
White Sox (Main)
The White Sox and Royals play a doubleheader today as well and I love the spot for the White Sox against Erik Skoglund in the nightcap. Skoglund has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his three starts this season. Yoan Moncada continues to rake, Jose Abreu is back, and Matt Davidson hit another two home runs last night. Those are the three bats I would start with and build from there. Yolmer Sanchez is a great value and Tim Anderson is in play as well.
Hitters By Position
*Consider these hitters to fill out your lineups, not necessarily as part of a stack.
Alex Avila (ARI) (Early) - Good platoon matchup advantage against Hellickson.
Wilson Ramos (TB) (Early) - Red-hot facing a lefty.
Beef Castillo (CWS) (Main) - If he's in the lineup for the second game of the doubleheader the matchup against Skoglund is great.
Joey Votto (CIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - Has home runs in four straight games.
Justin Smoak (TOR) (Main) - He's six for his last eight with a home run and a double.
Cody Bellinger (LAD) (Main) - Matches up well with Stratton.
Yonder Alonso (CLE) (Early) - Two straight games with a home run and a good price on FD.
Brian Dozier (MIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - I have a feeling he'll go very low-owned on the early slates on both FD and DK.
Asdrubal Cabrera (NYM) (Main) - Has hits in six of his last seven games and could lead off against a lefty.
Jose Altuve (HOU) (Main) - With the main slate full of mid-priced options at the position, Altuve could be lower owned than he should be.
Nolan Arenado (COL) (Main) - Against a mediocre lefty and after a price drop it's a Nolan day.
Geno Suarez (CIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - Love the matchup against Odorizzi who has trouble with righties.
Raf Devers (BOS) (Early) - Good spot against this Rays scrub after a day off yesterday.
Frankie Lindor (CLE) (Early) - Starting to square up the baseball with a 43 percent hard-hit rate in his last 11 games.
Xander Bogaerts (BOS) (Early) - Came back yesterday and didn't miss a beat with three hits.
Paul DeJong (STL) (Main) - Had his six-game hitting streak broken yesterday, should get back on track tonight.
Jose Peraza (CIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - I'm a day late here, apparently, but Odorizzi has major struggles with righties. We could see another productive day from Peraza.
Christian Yelich (MIL) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - 56 percent hard-hit rate in his last nine contests, the wind IS blowing in in Chicago which doesn't bother me much at all with a line drive hitter like Yelich.
Max Kepler (MIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - Has hits in nine of his last 10 games, hitting over .300, facing Sal Romano who has struggled against lefties, and is just $2,700 on FD.
Eddie Rosario (MIN) (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) - Hitting third and a great value on FD with power upside.
Joc Pederson (LAD) (Early) - I like the game one matchup against Stratton and his $2,200 price on FD.
A.J. Pollock (ARI) (Early) - Has hits in seven of his last eight games including a 3-4 night last night with a triple and a home run.
Mookie Betts (BOS) (Early) - He's red hot and I don't see how it doesn't continue with another Rays "bullpen game" incoming.
Adam Jones (BAL) (Main) - 10/28 lifetime against Liriano with three home runs and a double.
Matt Kemp (LAD) (Main) - With Johnny Cueto starting game two for the Dodgers, Kemp is in a good spot with a .308 lifetime average (12/39) with two doubles and three home runs. Confirm that he's in the lineup after leaving last night's game with quad tightness.
Charlie Blackmon (COL) (Main) - Burned some people last night, should be overlooked on a slate full of high priced bats.
Jorge Soler (KC) (Main) - The hype train couldn't have been stronger with this kid when he was with the Cubs. That never really worked out and he's sucked up until this season overall. At the moment, he's hitting a shade under .300 and is four for his last seven with a double and a home run.
*Value bats ($3,000 or less on FD and/or $3,500 or less on DK that will homer)
Max Kepler (MIN) - (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) ($2,700 on FD)
Adam Duvall (CIN) - (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) ($2,700 on FD)
Joc Pederson (LAD) - (Early) ($2,200 on FD)
Beef Castillo (CWS) - (Very Early on FD, Early on DK) ($3,100 0n DK)
Luis Valbuena (LAA) - (Main) ($2,400 on FD, $3,000 on DK)
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