MLB DFS: Rob Geriak’s Daily Diamond – 4/30

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Weather and Park Factors

All games play

Royals at Red Sox - Chance for a delay with rain early in the day.

Rockies at Cubs - Temps in the mid-60's with wind blowing out to left-center at 14 mph.

Dodgers at Diamondbacks - Roof should be open.

Yankees at Astros - Roof should be open with temps in the low to mid 70's and wind blowing to left a bit.

Pitchers

Jameson Taillon (PIT)

Taillon faces a Nats team that is just 3-7 in their last ten and is trotting out a lineup that is missing some key bats near the top of their lineup. Taillon's last two starts have been dreadful after starting off the season looking like a breakout year was coming, which could still happen if he can get through this little tough stretch. He's getting a ton of groundballs at a 54.8 percent rate and has a good enough 22 percent K rate. His salary on both sites is a bargain in my eyes as Taillon will get back on track against the Nats tonight.

Jake Arrieta (PHI)

Arrieta has been a stabilizing force thus far in a Phillies rotation that has had some ups and downs. He's been extremely solid allowing just five earned runs in 24.2 innings of work. The former Cy Young Award winner is generating ground balls at a rate of 63 percent, allowing hard contact just 13 percent of the time and has pitched into the seventh inning in each of his last three starts. The park in Miami will favor him and so will the garbage lineup that the Marlins send out there. Arrieta is a play for me on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Charlie Morton (HOU)

Morton had a rough outing in his last start allowing almost as many walks (5) as he had all season leading up to that start (6). The Yankees are dangerous to target but Morton has been really good and the Yankees are dealing with having to fly in from Los Angeles after concluding their weekend series last night on Sunday Night Baseball with the Angels only to start a series with the defending world champs. Fun. Morton is getting ground balls at a 59 percent rate and striking batters out at a 29.4 percent clip. He's been rock solid outside of his last start and I have no reason to think that he won't be good tonight.

Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS)

The Royals don't hit lefties well at all with just a team wOBA of .308 and ISO of .139. I've never been high on Rodriguez but his salary on both sites is attractive if you want to get some big bats in. E-Rod has won his last three starts going at least six innings in each totaling 16 strikeouts and just six earned runs allowed. He's pitching at home and has a 24 percent K rate to go along with just a 27 percent hard-hit rate against. Rodriguez shapes up as a great value option that should draw some ownership.

SP2 Options on DraftKings

Jake Faria (TB)

Faria got into some trouble with walks in his last outing, but his two prior starts were very solid going 11.1 innings, striking out 13, and allowing just two earned runs. The Tigers post pedestrian numbers as a team against right-handed pitching and perhaps that stat that will aid Faria the most is their walk rate. As a team, they walk just 7.4 percent of their plate appearance against righties, the sixth-lowest mark in the league.

Sonny Gray (NYY)

Sonny has looked like absolute shit over his last three starts. Clearly, he's in a funk. Here's the deal, though. No one will roster him, and I mean NO ONE. The Yankees played last night in L.A. but there is NO CHANCE IN HELL Sonny wasn't in Houston already so that's not an issue. The Astros played a home series over the weekend and the bats got going a bit, especially Jose Altuve. I'm not helping Sonny's case much in saying this, but the Astros lineup is potentially going to carry them to the World Series for the second year in a row. I feel like Sonny bounces back tonight, though where we least expect it. It'll be a big-time bonus if Austin Romine catches who is Sonny's preferred catcher, which is possible with Sanchez due for a rest/DH game.

Pitchers to Fade

Jeff Samardzija (SF)

Umm. No. A chalky Jeff Samardzija? Absolutely not. Definitely not for me. Go read the Dongers Club if you want someone to give you Samardzija as a play to spend your money on.

Jon Lester (CHC)

Warmer weather, a lineup that hasn't hit lefties overall but with guys like Arenado, Blackmon, and Story they're still dangerous. Oh, and the wind is pumping out to left-center. Lester will be chalky, like Samardzija and I want NO PART of either of these overpaid frauds.

Favorite Stacks

Brewers

This just in. Brandon Finnegan is awful. The park is in favor of the bats here as the Reds and Brewers lock up in a division series where offense should be leading the charge. Ryan Braun kills in the Great American Ballpark. Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are guys I want at the top of the order and Travis Shaw more than likely cleaning up right behind Braun. It doesn't get much easier than this, people. This isn't sneaky. The Brewers will be one of the higher-owned stacks on the slate but Finnegan and the Reds bullpen will get torched and the Brewers will think they're playing softball.

Diamondbacks

Love the Dbacks against Ross Stripling as they return home to warm weather and an open roof. David Peralta will be ready to rock after striking out four times against GIO GONZALEZ on Sunday (could you imagine doing that and looking yourself in the mirror??? Gio Gonzalez???). I love Goldy and A.J. Pollock here and can't wait for Jake Lamb to come back. Daniel Descalso is value that you should consider, especially if he's hitting fifth.

Pirates

Tanner Roark has been a disaster at home so far with a 4.91 ERA and three home runs allowed in 11 innings. He's also been bad against left-handed hitters overall with a .333 wOBA and 22.2 HR/FB rate. Corey Dickerson jumps out along with Josh Bell and Gregory Polanco all from the left-hand side with Bell being a switch hitter. Starling Marte, although from the right side, is another bat that I like with his power-speed upside and presumable lineup spot hitting third. The Pirates have scored 17 runs in their last three games and I see that train rolling right into Washington against Roark and the Nats mediocre bullpen.

Twins

Something isn't right with Aaron Sanchez and hasn't been right since he started developing arm and blister issues a couple years back. The Twins lineup poses a threat with Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, who is questionable to play, and Max Kepler all reasonably priced and hitting at the top or middle of the order of late. Eduardo Escobar is also worth a look with multiple hits in four straight games including three doubles and a home run.

Cubs

As the wind looks to be steadily blowing out to left, I'm starting to like the Cubs more and more against Kyle Freeland. With so many other attractive teams in good spots tonight, it's possible that the Cubs come in with lower ownership than they should. Javy Baez and Kris Bryant are the top tier guys I really like here. However, the value bats are looking very attractive with Addison Russell and Ian Happ very cheap along with Willson Contreras who's priced fairly on both sites. 

Hitters By Position

*Consider these hitters to fill out your lineups, not necessarily as part of a stack.

Catcher

Buster Posey (SF) - He's fairly priced on DK against a lefty.

Chris Iannetta (COL) - Should benefit from 14 plus mile per hour winds facing a lefty.

Yasmani Grandal (LAD) - Good hitting conditions and two of his seven hits against Greinke have been home runs.

First Base

Cody Bellinger (LAD) - 6/15 with two home runs off of Greinke.

Joey Votto (CIN) - He's heating up and faces Chacin who struggles with lefties.

Justin Smoak (MIN) - Great spot against Lance Lynn.

Mitch Moreland (BOS) - $2,900 on FD in a smash spot against Hammel.

Second Base

Javy Baez (CHC) - Freeland has struggled against right-handed hitters.

Cesar Hernandez (PHI) - Love Cesar against Dan Straily who's making his first start of the season.

Brian Dozier (MIN) - Dozier is due for a big game at home and Aaron Sanchez has been struggling.

Third Base

Geno Suarez (CIN) - 63 percent hard-hit rate since returning from injury.

Evan Longoria (SF) - Five for his last 12 with two doubles and a home run over his last three games played.

Rafael Devers (BOS) - Ownership should be low and the matchup is great against Hammel.

Shortstop

Corey Seager (LAD) - Due to get going and has great numbers vs Greinke.

Trea Turner (WAS) - Taillon has allowed 18 stolen bases on 18 attempts since the beginning of last season and Turner has stolen 12 bases in 28 games.

Xander (BOS) - Has hits in both games since coming off the DL.

Addie Russell (CHC) - Nice value if you want to get Cubs exposure, especially on FD.

Outfield

J.D. Martinez (BOS) - Hammel has had a hard time against righties.

A.J. Pollock (ARI) - He's four for his last 11 with a triple and a home run.

Starling Marte "Partay" (PIT) - Riding a nine-game hitting streak, power, and speed upside hitting third in the Pirates' lineup.

Ryan Braun (MIL) - Should be chalky but he loves hitting in Cincinnati. I'll be on him all series.

Corey Dickerson (PIT) - Roark has given up a ton of production to lefties and Dickerson has four hits in his last four games including a double and a home run.

Ian Happ (CHC) - Has a .379 wOBA and .211 ISO vs lefties this season and heavy wind blowing out to left-center.

Scott Schebler (CIN) - Most people will look to the Milwaukee side of this game but some Reds bats have woken up, especially Schebler who is just 3K on FD.

Eddie Rosario (MIN) - Multiple hits in two of his last three games and facing Aaron Sanchez who's been a mess so far.

Tank Alert

*Value bats (under $3,000 or less on FD and/or $3,500 or less on DK that will homer.

Mitch Moreland (BOS) - ($2,900 on FD)

Domingo Santana (MIL) - ($2,800 on FD, $3,200 on DK)

Justin Smoak (TOR) - ($3,500 on DK)

Max Kepler (MIN) - ($2,800 on FD, $3,500 on DK)

Good Luck!

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