The Dongers Club - Mon, April 1st

srenner

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It is VERY VERY VERY early in the season but I cannot be more pleased with how things have gone thus far. That said, there's no reason to over-react to everything going on right now with very very limited sample sizes, but it would also be extremely foolish and lazy of us to not try to take note of things we have seen and predict what is reality and what is just noise, so here's a few things I have taken note of:

  • The Dodgers MURDER soft tossing RHP at home. MURDER them. This will continue, it makes sense. When they face a RHP we will get Joc, Bellinger, Muncy (he sucks a ton so far, I really think last year was a farse) and Seager in PLUS matchups and guys like Justin Turner and AJ Pollock are good enough vs RHP to contribute. When they face a LHP or a flame throwing RHP we will see them struggle at times. But a soft tossing RHP? They're the #1 team in the league in DFS.
  • I was right about Seattle and if the roof being open is another trend to monitor then we should monitor it as much as it might not make sense. That said, their bullpen might be worse than the Reds pen was in 2016-2017 and that was a horrific pen.
  • People continue to have this weird affiliation with playing the Blue Jays. Why?
  • Cleveland might be worse than I thought.

Looking ahead ...

This upcoming week is going to be a very weird one in terms of scheduling. We have teams who are playing afternoon games as they have their own "Home" Opening Day's and also teams who are playing games early simply because they feel it helps with attendance and also avoids really cold late evenings.

For example, Wednesday and Thursday you can expect heavy split slates and then Friday we only have a few games on the Main slate for a Friday slate as it will feel like a Monday slate.

Tonight there are 9 games on the main slate and 8 of them are in stadiums where the home team played over the weekend to start the season off.

WEATHER

The one benefit of a bunch of games in the same stadiums is that they're mostly good weather or domes. No weather issues tonight.

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This is a terrible pitching slate. I feel there's frankly very few options to get us up to 20 points tonight but a couple guys who won't be considered at all. There's also some serious price differences on a few guys between the sites, so when in doubt, assume I am going the cheaper guy listed here based on the site.

David Price (DK: $10,100, FD: $9,300) ... Driving Price's ownership down will be that he's 1400 more than Urias, on the road and facing a good team (Oakland). But this is also a team who is a little weaker vs LHP and Price has never struggled in Oakland -- which makes sense because Price does well in places where nobody is right on top of the stadium or at the stadium at all. Where as he struggles when the whole world is watching or is packed and right on top of him (smaller parks). I hate the Price (it's a pun, sort of...) for David in the big picture but on this slate, it might be just right. Price has the highest ceiling of anyone today and I think he will be clear to throw 6-7 IP if doing well -- which is more than we can say for anyone else throwing today.

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Julio Urias (DK: $8,700, FD: $7,200) ... Urias was one of the Dodgers arms who was healthy and pitched most of the spring and will draw a Giants lineup that is among the worst in the league over the first few games and should continue to be picked on. Even in Dodger stadium which has been a home run derby park to start the season, we'll take the Urias chalk and move on despite knowing he probably doesn't go more than 5 innings. There's just too many other bad choices tonight to completely overlook him.

Kyle Hendricks (DK: $7200, FD: $9,000) ... Faces Atlanta who played the late Sunday night game and had to travel. Honestly not that huge of a deal and Hendricks is Mr. JAG (Just a Guy) who never has that huge K game (nor is this a good K spot) and doesn't go very deep into games. To which you are wondeing, then how the hell does he make the list?

SNEAKY ARMS

Drew Pomeranz (DK: $7,100, FD: $5,600) ... I don't love game stacking arms because the goal is definitely to get two wins out of Pitchers, however in case you haven't noticed I have played some part of the Dodgers every day so far this year. Facing a RHP? Dodger bats. Facing a LHP? The lefty. But Pom to me has a hard time getting the win tonight facing off against Urias, however if you want to avoid some of that LA Dodger chasing chalk then he would be a leverage play without fading Urias too.

David Hess (DK: $5900, FD: $5700) ... Toronto's not a great lineup, but Hess isn't a great pitcher. That said, he did get some quality experience last year and on a slate where we don't have to force pitching in we can consider a punt with someone like him.

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ANGELS ... Imagine this. A team that people like for offense walks into a massive pitchers park against one of the better improved defenses and one of the best bullpens in the majors and guess what. They don't do much. Shocking, right? I haven't been on the Angels much outside of Pujols/Simba on Friday night and that will change now that they head north to Seattle where they draw a Mariners team they have historically beat up and who really have no secret weapons in their bullpen that are going to magically appear anytime soon. Yes, Mike Trout vs Felix Hernandez (he has dominated him in their careers together in the AL West). It's about as obvious as me touting Taysom Hill on a showdown slate. He's in play. Duh. But guess who else is now magically in play? Justin Bour. No, not because he is specifically hitting behind Trout -- that's dumb, you want the guy hitting in FRONT of Trout. But today I suspect we see Felix pitch completely around Trout -- so actually I am contradicting myself here and justifying Bour because of that reason. Any rate. Green light is up on Bour today, he's a good play.

  • Calhoun, Trout, Bour, Cozart ... You want Calhoun for when he faces the bullpen

ASTROS ... The most obvious play on the board is Houston going into Texas. A spot they should always rake and always be popular in. The Chirinos revenge narrative certainly comes into play, but we don't really know how long Smyly will last as the starter today, I don't think it will be long so that rolls us into the Rangers unpredictable bullpen. If you roll with Houston you are basically looking for a bunch of HR so the usual suspects are in play. Shortstop is pretty weak today, I like some value guys there but am always a sucker for Correa too.

  • Alex Bregman, Robinson Chirinos, George Springer

SNEAKY

DIAMONDBACKS ... Padres bullpen is good, but Strahm is a joke and wont last long IMO. He might strikeout 5 but Ahmed, Peralta and Escobar will do some damage here in PETCO tonight and with Stram leaving after a few innings it will flip to a RHP most likely which has benefits for Peralta and Escobar.... If I thought Strahm would be a lock to go 5+ innings I would use him, he wont....

  • Nick Ahmed, David Peralta, Eduardo Escobar.

RANGERS ... Asking the Rangers to do it three games in a row is dicey and the Astros pen is no joke, but I mentioned the lefties could give Peacock fits today.

  • Gallo, Mazara, Odor, Guzman, Choo ... In that order, try to get 2 of these guys if you touch on the Rangers.

ROCKES / RAYS ... Rare is the game stack in MLB, however I love going Nolan-Story-Meadows-Pham-Choi as a 5 man game stack here today. Third lineup type stack for me, but I'll have this tonight on both sites.

  • Arenado, Story, McMahon, Pham, Meadows, Choi

FADES

Dodgers, Red Sox, Athletics

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Favorite one off players per position in BOLD

CATCHER: Catcher Mondays, 2019!

  • Wilson Ramos: Water Buffalo on Monday's.
  • Robinson Chirinos: First of many games against his former Rangers Pitche..... wait, Drew Smyly???? Shit... Still in play, just for different reasons.
  • Wilson Contreras

FIRST BASE: 

  • Justin Bour: Bour, 2-run HR first inning after Trout walks.
  • Ji-Man Choi: I like Meadows and Pham top of the order for the Rays, so Choi would be the RBI correlation to add to that mix
  • Eric Hosmer

SECOND BASE:

  • Jose Altuve
  • Rougned Odor: Has tee'd up Peacock in 12 AB with a .425 xwOBA and as I mentioned I like the Rangers lefties today.
  • Lourdes Gurriel

THIRD BASE: This is the deepest infield position on the slate.

  • Alex Bregman
  • Ryon Healy
  • Zack Cozart: An extra sneaky play in the Angels stack

SHORTSTOP: Bad position, really sneaky play I love is Story.

  • Fernando Tatis Jr
  • Nick Ahmed: Double yesterday and a good bat to attack the Strahm chalk with.
  • Amed Rosario
  • Trevor Story: At a position that is very thin, Story homering off Yarbrough out of the pen is a 5% owned double dong upside play tonight.

OUTFIELD: Outfield is loaded with goodies today.

  • Mike Trout??: Is he a good play? Asking for a friend. OK, all kidding aside, he is obviously expensive as hell. My take is that the Angels are gonna put up some heavy damage today and there's no sense being cute and not playing Trout unless it means you have every other Angel in your lineup.
  • Austin Meadows / Tommy Pham: Prefer to play both together.
  • George Springer
  • Randal Grichuk

VALUE OF:

  • Franchy Cordero
  • Adam Jones: Remains too cheap
  • Lewis Brinson
  • Kole Cahoun
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What is the Dongers Club exactly??? These are the 'special' calls for the slate, or more specifically they originated as players who are being picked to homer from their respective positions on the slate. No more than one player per position and you can generally use these as my favorite play at the position on the day when trying to decide on a tie-breaker. The Chairman is the top overall HR pick of the slate and it will not always be guys who are gonna wind up with 30+ homers -- that's what makes this unique and bold.

CHAIRMAN:Trevor Story - SS - Rockies

  1. Mike Trout - OF - Angels
  2. Justin Bour - 1B - Angels
  3. Alex Bregman - 3B - Astros
  4. Wilson Ramos - C - Mets
  5. Randal Grichuk - OF - Blue Jays
  6. Kole Calhoun - OF - Angels
  7. Rougned Odor - 2B - Rangers
  8. BONUS ...................... Nick Ahmed - SS - Diamondbacks

BETS

  • Diamondbacks ML
  • Angels ML
  • Orioles ML
  • Orioles/Jays UNDER 9
  • Mets/Marlins OVER 7.5
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