The Dongers Club - Saturday, April 27th

srenner

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Welcome to a nice split Saturday afternoon slate with seven games today beginning at 2:10 PM EST and then seven more on the evening slate.

NEWS! Rumor has it that DraftKings will now allow you to late swap any players from a game that is PPD. This means you can now roster players in a rain risk game and if it is PPD after lock then you can late swap to anyone else who hasn't started yet. No confirmation on this yet, but that would change things quite a bit.

TODAY'S WEATHER

All games on the early slate play today.

  • Roof CLOSED in Houston Today
  • Padres vs Nationals - It is very windy in Washington, more of a swirling wind but it likely will blow out and this game will see a HR boost.
  • Rays vs Red Sox - Windy here as well and blowing out to right field. Not as warm as Washington but still an afternoon game in Fenway.
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  1. Jose Berrios (FD: $10,100, DK: $10,000) ... The Orioles days of being pesky are ending and Berrios at home in a spot where he was a little bit of a disappointment vs the same Orioles last weekend is reason for me to believe this is the spot where Berrios hits that 60 point mark on FanDuel again against a bad lineup at home in non extreme hitting conditions (mid 40's).
  2. Derek Holland (FD: $8,100, DK: $7,200) ... Holland is the best mid range option today on both sites. He's bringing in a 30% K rate so far this season and pitches better in AT&T park as expected where the large dimensions help avoid some HR pop to opposing RH bats.
  3. Dakota Hudson (DK: $6,100) ... Hudson is a ground ball pitcher who is getting a whopping 75% GB rate against RHP so far in his limited action in the Majors thus far and has been better at home (mostly because his road included going to Milwaukee, which was a HORRIBLE spot for him). Cincinnati is an offense we can pick on today as they should have lit up Mikolas more last night and Hudson is better than Mikolas. Roll with Huddy today at 6100 on DK as your SP2 with Berrios.
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San Diego Padres ... What in the world is going on with Manny Machado's price? I realize the guy has not been off to a blazing start but back on the east coast and facing Strasburg who should be picked on in a day game with winds blowing out to right is a Manny get right spot. It's time to realize that Stephen Strasburg has not adjusted to Nationals Park being a hitters stadium. He posted a 5.02 ERA at home last year compared to 2.40 on the road and in limited sample size this year it has continued. Nats park is something I noted changing with the building they built around seeming to create a massive HR boost in that ballpark about late 2017 and if this is a real trend that is going to continue then we should jump on it today.

  • CORE: Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes
  • EXTRA: Fernando Tatis Jr

Washington Nationals ... Eric Lauer has started to pitch better and by better I mean he's able to make it to the second time through the order more frequently. He's still a below average pitcher and with the wind conditions today the Nationals will really feast on anything he does leave in the zone. Lauer is someone who doesn't get swing and misses on anything in the zone and the Nationals are a good enough team to hit his medium velocity. The one thing Lauer has going for him is that he has an elite pick off move, and also being a lefty that pretty much negates ANY chance that Eaton or Robles will steal a base off him today. This is a good match-up for Howie Kendrick if he can get the start.

Anthony Rendon sitting today

  • CORE: Victor Robles, Howie Kendrick
  • EXTRA: Anthony Rendon, Kurt Suzuki, Carter Kieboom

OBVIOUS FILLER EXPOSURE SPOTS:

Minnesota & Oakland: The next two pitchers to pick on are from Baltimore (Straily+Pen) and Toronto (Sanchez+Pen) with HR power teams like the Twins and Athletics. Rosario and Davis are the elite plays from both teams today.

MAIN LINEUP FADE - YOUR DECISION MIGHT VARY

St. Louis Cardinals ... Mahle is not someone I am going to try and pump up to you today. I have kinda liked him for a while but he continues to not be great vs lefties and also has to deal with some reverse splits righties in the Cards lineup that can do real damage here and they should be one of the popular 1-3 type stacks this afternoon.

However my pivot on a main lineup is that I love Machado/Xander as my 3B/SS combination which eliminates Carp and DeJong and Goldy as a one off just doesn't fit for me today so this is a fade for roster construction reasons in my mind.

  • Matt Carpenter, Paul Goldschmidt, Paul Dejong
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CATCHERS: Feel free to completely punt this spot on DK today.

  1. Yan Gomes
  2. Thomas Morestead

FIRST BASE: It would be really hard to do a Cardinals 1-3 without Goldy, so if you have Cards then obviously he is your guy here, but I love the spot for Kendrys even though he's really not that good.

  1. Kendrys Morales: He's a 1 hit wonder today, but that one hit likely would leave the yard. Play him with Khrush Davis.
  2. Paul Goldschmidt
  3. Ryan Zimmerman

SECOND BASE: The Nationals decision on who to start at 2B today determines everything for me here. Kendrick preferred but Dozier alternative is okay as well.

  1. Howie Kendrick / Brian Dozier: For some stupid reason Howie Kendrick is 3B on FanDuel.
  2. Jason Kipnis
  3. Michael Chavis

THIRD BASE: Deep, but all the Machado.

  1. Manny Machado: $3600 for Manny vs Strasburg & the Nationals bullpen is a joke.
  2. Howie Kendrick (FD)
  3. Matt Carpenter
  4. Vlad Guerrero Jr

SHORTSTOP: Deeper than third base in my mind today. Love DeJong, Tatis, Spencer in the Cards/Pads/Nats stacks respectively but Xander will be the delivery boy for Boston today.

  1. Xander Bogaerts: X gonna give it to ya
  2. Paul DeJong
  3. Fernando Tatis Jr.
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OUTFIELD:

  1. Eddie Rosario: Weekend at Rosario's...
  2. Franimal Reyes: He technically is the value play and Robles is up here, but Franmil is my #2 OF today. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
  3. Khris Davis: Has gone cold. In a great park vs a pitcher who historically is worse at home.
  4. George Springer: Saturday
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OUTFIELD - Value:

  1. Avisail Garcia
  2. Victor Robles: Lauer has an elite pick off move. So no chance of steals w/ Robles today, so instead he'll rope a triple.
  3. Teoscar Hernandez
  4. Leonys Martin

The Reds lefties -- Winker and Schebler are value options if you aren't rocking with me on Daniel Hudson.

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I have always enjoyed giving out the 8 players in the Dongers Club with 1 from each position and generally it's even a lineup that can fit into DFS contests and will give you a good baseline for starting things off. The Dongers Club has thrived over the years on calling unique homers and pinpointing the one off plays to have. But I felt it was time for a change. Let's be more specific here, and lets make these calls actionable for you to build lineups off of and celebrate when these picks hit rather than saying "hey, 3 of my 9 guys hit homers". Screw that. I want 5 for 5 every day....

CHAIRMAN OF THE DONGERS CLUB ... The top HR call of the night, the leader of the Dongers Club

  • Xander - SS - Boston

VICE-CHAIRMEN

  • Manny Machado - 3B - Padres ... Hits one today and two tomorrow
  • Franmil Reyes - OF - Padres

AT LARGE MEMBERS

  • Eddie Rosario - OF - Twins
  • Avisail Garcia - OF - Rays
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