The Dongers Club - Wed, August 12th

srenner

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SLATE INTRO

Mid week shorter slate with only 8 games on the docket tonight. For those who want the early slate action of Royals-Reds, Coors Field and the Blue Jays in Buffalo, go time travel back to 3PM and set a lineup on FanDuel, because you missed it!

This means no Coors Field tonight and when I do my rankings of the games to look at, I identify them as Tier1, Tier2 and Tier3. Well, today I identified zero Tier1 games on this evening slate, which tells me that we will likely see teams creep up as popular who shouldn't be and they will solely be popular based upon the implied run total rankings. Lots of times the implied run totals are justified on bigger slates but on these half slates the #1 ranked team according to Vegas is just noise.

WEATHER

I see no issues tonight.

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Zack Greinke

Thank goodness the Giants got their win last night because I strongly felt they would get one in this series and didn't want to have to fear that coming into today against Greinke. Yes, I have been on him all season long and he has been pitching very well despite some bad luck results. The Astros bullpen is reeling so I hope that Dusty Baker continues to trust Zack now in his fourth start of the season to go deeper and deeper.

The veteran isn't going to wow you with his spin rate or some incredible velocity. He is going to pitch with deception, experience and wind up with a very reputable score tonight.

Kenta Maeda

Kenta has been an exception to the NL->AL pitcher move this season as a main bright spot in the Twins starting rotation and in a short sample size he's been walking almost nobody and not getting hit much at all. He gets another solid matchup today against the highest strikeout team on the board in Milwaukee. I prefer Greinke over Kenta Maeda on FanDuel, but I expect both of them to get 20+ on DraftKings today.

Masahiro Tanaka

Very cheap on DraftKings when you consider how much Atlanta is striking out on this young season. He's obviously always a concern but someone I would greatly trust today on DK to get enough points to do well, but I really believe Dansby Swanson will take him deep and expect some other tough outs in this lineup today (Freeman, Duvall), but either way it's probably a lower scoring game.

Outside of the Box

Taijuan Walker & Jordan Lyles ... These two get the benefit of pitching in Texas, and if the roof remains closed it's a spot I gotta consider. Walker had a good first start and then went back to what I expected in his second outing where he once again had a hard time keeping runners off base. You do not need to spend down on pitching today, but I can see both of these guys doing decent for their price.

Guys I am not using

  • Zack Eflin ... Orioles bats actually grade out well for me today, especially top of the lineup and the Phils pen is blowing everything these days.
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The Minnesota Twins

Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario

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I have Eric Lauer as the lowest ranked pitcher on the slate. The Twins struggled offensively against a KC Royals team that even I have underestimated but they're legit in the top end from a overall staff perspective, but the Twins have started to show signs of life in Milwaukee and the now hot Eddie Rosario + Jorge Polanco getting one last night brings me lots of confidence in this lineup having a huge game. Lauer gets into trouble a lot and so there's good upside with doing a 2-3-4-5 type stack where the line keeps moving.

The Tampa Bay Rays

Austin Meadows, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz

Tampa Bay Devil Rays Primary Logo | Sports Logo History

Yup. I'm back.

Dear Zack Godley. Your time is up. Godley lives on throwing trash and getting guys to chase on shit outside of the zone. Lots of the Rays might appear tempting to get some strikeouts with but the Meadows-Lowe-Diaz potential at the top of this lineup could come out today and light him up for 2 homers and 3 ER. Yandy is one of the most disciplined hitters on the team with a 18% swing rate outside of the zone. The 6% swinging strike bump Godley has gotten thus far is going to fade and it fades with a blast in the first from Tampa.

Other Spots to Consider

Dodgers ... It's going to be much warmer in L.A. than it has recently, so lets get this Dodger train going shall we? Davies is not good and is coming off an excellent start, the time to jump on him is now, but be cautious as to how many Dodgers. Just go HR hunting with the top of the lineup.

Orioles ... Can they win again? Why not. The Orioles top of the lineup is doing a great job getting on base and the Phillies bullpen cannot get out of their own way right now. Lots of upside here.

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CATCHER

  1. Pedro Severino
  2. Austin Nola

FIRST BASE

  1. Rhys Hoskins ... I know, I know. He sucks. But what do sucky players do? They beat up on other sucky spots.
  2. Miguel Sano
  3. Luke Voit ... Not gonna waste space telling you Yankees up above. It's random homers and Judge. Voit is a good spot today though.

SECOND BASE

  1. Brandon Lowe
  2. Hanser Alberto

THIRD BASE

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After being such a great position the past few days it seems to fall off like a cliff today. Which means Yandy Diaz will be locked and loaded 100% for me today assuming he gets a relatively normal lineup spot. Something between 1-9 will do.

  1. Yandy Diaz
  2. Jeff McNeil

SHORTSTOP

  1. Dansby Swanson ... One off to leverage against Masahiro Tanakaaaaa on DK. I had him here and in the Dongers Club before he was announced as leading off. Today's Trea Turner.
  2. Jorge Polanco
  3. Fernando Tatis Jr.

OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore

  1. Austin Meadows ... This time for sure Rocky!
  2. Anthony Santander ... He and Alberto are rolling right now, great value on FD.
  3. Nelson Cruz
  4. Aaron Judge

Outfield - Tier 2

  1. Mookie Betts
  2. Joc Pederson
  3. Juan Soto
  4. Eddie Rosario

Outfield - Value

  1. Willie Calhoun
  2. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
  3. Wil Myers
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BEST CONTEST REFRESHER

These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:

  1. 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it's the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what's the point? These type of contests usually aren't as common and they're a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They're smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
  2. Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
  3. Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren't about making money. Sorry.
  4. Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you're in a slump, play one of these.
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  1. Yandy Diaz - 3B - Tampa Bay Rays - Chairman of the Dongers Club
  2. Nelson Cruz - OF - Twins
  3. Pedro Severino - C - Orioles
  4. Rhys Hoskins - 1B - Phillies
  5. Juan Soto - OF - Nationals
  6. Brandon Lowe - 2B - Rays
  7. Dansby Swanson - SS - Braves
  8. Austin Meadows - OF - Rays
  9. BONUS ........ Willie Calhoun - OF - Rangers

BETS

  • Braves / Yankees UNDER
  • Dodgers Run Line -1.5
  • Twins score first inning: YES
  • Rays score first inning: YES
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