The Dongers Club - Thu, August 13th

srenner

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SLATE INTRO

Thursday's are the worst. Today only has six games scheduled for all of MLB, largely due to the Cardinals being morons in regards to COVID but also because MLB built today in as a day off for everyone while they're sprinting to get the season in. This only helps hitters more IMO and they're starting to get into a groove already.

As for DFS. Both sites will lock early at 4:00 PM as they ignored the 1PM Nationals/Mets game (which is understandable).

However, only DraftKings used common sense and included the Padres-Dodgers game on their slate. So FanDuel is now just a 4 game slate with risk of one game being PPD due to weather. Brilliant. To make matters worse, they also punted on contest sizing and selection today as they clearly opted to just take less revenue today. Smart guys. Realllll smart.

Here are the games today

  • 4:05 EST: Orioles at Phillies
  • 4:30 EST: Rays at Red Sox
  • 5:10 EST: Pirates at Reds
  • 7:15 EST: Brewers at Cubs ... WTF Baseball?
  • 9:40 EST: Padres at Dodgers

WEATHER

The Orioles and Phillies game is the most risky one with rain in the area. If they do not PPD it before 4PM then it will play, meaning if you hear "game delayed" then I expect them to be playing.

This assumes common sense is involved. The Phillies are home on Friday, so they can wait it out and the Orioles have to make up the end of a game w/ the Nationals from their debacle on Sunday tomorrow before a a scheduled game back in Baltimore. So they might be pushing to get this one over with but they have a very short bus ride home.

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Jake Arrieta

Former Oriole Jake Arrieta (man that feels like decades ago) is going to do what hasn't been done all week by Phillies pitchers. Win against the Orioles. Eflin was able to get good strike-out returns last night but alas he didn't walk away a winner. The Phillies will take this game assuming they decide to play it and Arrieta pitches extremely well as one of your DK options.

Yu Darvish

Meh. No doubt he is the highest owned SP on both sites IMO. The logic with Darvish is as follows ...

  • Wrigley night games suck
  • Wind is blowing in
  • The Brewers offense isnt very good

I get all of that and it all fits. Darvish is ramped up to his full pitch count limit as well and should get deep into this game. With it being a short slate there is increased value in going Hiura-Yelich-Braun to counter Darvish as a popular choice today but that would be entirely playing ownership %'s and nothing else. I think Darvish will pitch well today and top 20 points on DK, so I won't be one of those folks getting 'cute'.

Outside of the Box

Corbin Burnes

Sounds like Brett Anderson will be opening this up for the Brewers today and then they go over to Corbin Burnes. The deal on Burnes is dominates RH bats but gets hammered by lefties. Assuming Schwarber (specific guy who can kill him) is out that leaves just Rizzo as a major threat -- who I would recommend he just beans him three teams. Wind blowing in helps and for his cheap price he'll be a SP2 if you venture down the Darvish or even want to go with Paddack as SP1.

Note: With the early slate start today I haven't had 100% time to confirm the plan with Anderson & Burnes, so check it as close to lock as you can & really this is a play only if spending up for some contrarian bats (Dodgers) or going heavy on the Phils big guns (Harper, Realmuto, etc.)

Guys I am not using

  • Paddack - I don't have desire using him against the Dodgers because Paddack doesn't go 8 IP and just not worth it IMO -- that's all.
  • Urias - The leash is too short still and Padres have been sneaky good vs LHP
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Pirates Baby!

Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Who needs friends when they're telling you that you shouldn't stack the Pirates? The Reds bullpen continues to struggle mightly and this ballpark plays too good for anything that hits the air. DeSclafani is coming off a fantastic start against a bad Brewers team but one thing we know about the Italian is that you shouldn't expect him to do it twice in a row.

Phillies

Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins, Didi Gregorious

As you can tell I really hope this game plays. I expect a lot of ownership to shift over to the Rays as folks get tired of playing Rhys Hoskins and company. I wouldn't play Rhys over Bell but I also wouldn't be shocked to see him finally deliver after being heavy chalk the past two days. Happy Didi day!

  • If the phillies are PPD I would pivot to Red Sox (Verdugo, Moreland, Xander)

Reds

Nick Castellanos, Nick Senzel, Freddy Galvis

They gotta get to the Pirates bullpen because the Reds are too lefty heavy vs Trevor Williams (hammered by RH bats more), but if they can then this full team can go off in a great hitters park.

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CATCHER

  1. J.T. Realmuto
  2. Francisco Mejia

FIRST BASE

  1. Josh Bell
  2. Rhys Hoskins
  3. Mitch Moreland

SECOND BASE

Rare is the day when I can say that I am very confident in Adam Frazier, Mike Brosseau and Scott fricken Kingery. But I am!

  1. Adam Frazier
  2. Mike Brosseau
  3. Scott Kingery

THIRD BASE

  1. Yandy Diaz
  2. Manny Machado
  3. Colin Moran

SHORTSTOP

  1. Didi Gregorius
  2. Xander - Pivot off Didi if PPD

OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore

  1. Nick Castellockos ... It's righties vs T-Will the thrill. Starting my lineup with him.
  2. Gregory Polanco
  3. Bryce Harper

Outfield - Value

  1. Hunter Renfroe
  2. Nick Senzel
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Today's Contrarian Builds

Some of ya'll want a contrarian build on a short slate. Just get weird and build it out. Here's the top cores to do for that logic

  1. Padres -- Tatis (SS), Profar (2B), Myers (OF)
  2. Brewers -- Hiura (2B), Yelich (OF), Braun (1B), Narvaez (C)
  3. Paddack / Urias SP Gamestack
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  1. Nick Castellanos - OF - Reds - Chairman of the Dongers Club
  2. Josh Bell - 1B - Pirates
  3. Gregory Polanco - OF - Pirates
  4. Scott Kingery - 2B - Phillies

BETS

  • Brewers / Cubs UNDER whatever they post it at
  • Pirates ML
  • Red Sox ML
Comments

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