The Dongers Club - Thu, Aug 6th
Three straight days of being right down the middle and I must say it's very odd for me in 2020 to not have my finger on the pulse that is Chase Field - but those Arizona Diamondbacks against the Astros bullpen as I outlined on Tuesday decided to come through last night. It was the Angels who were key for me as the disaster that is the Mariners pitching is showing it's ugly head.
Today is a split Thursday and the two site's have different MAIN slates, so the article is coming out a little earlier than normal
- FanDuel is a 5 game slate beginning at 7pm
- DraftKings is a 7 game slate beginning at 6pm which includes the Yankees/Phillies and Reds/Indians games. Both of these are on the FanDuel early only slate.
So this article will have a lean to DraftKings pricing.
Great news, we have Camden Yards on the slate.
Bad news, it's still the Marlins and Orioles
Lingering Showers between Miami and Baltimore, which is listed as a Marlins home game even though it's being played in Camden Yards.
Even though nobody is really hitting right now the pitching choices seem to be scary on the surface. So my job today is to find who the best option is even if he won't deliver a dominant performance.
The Astros have done quite well the past two days against the Diamondback's lefty arms, but today they'll be a little Lactose Intolerant against Zac Gallen. Gallen is not at the Flaherty, Buehler, Bieber level of next tier elites in the game but he is right behind them with the ability to throw four different pitches w/ quality and an extremely rock solid curve ball. Houston can hit anyone, but then so can the Dodgers -- who Gallen had no problems with in his first start of the season. The form is good, the length should be fine and the strikeouts will be there too.
This really feels like a bad play to me but Chatwood has been rock solid in two starts against very poor offenses. Today he gets another poor offense and one has to wonder how lucky this guy is right now -- but also how BAD of a beating he is going to take when he finally faces a great team. You don't have to have Chatwood today though. I know he has struck out 19 batters and only walked 4 through two games. Both of those were at home in Wrigley which has been like Texas this season. This is still a guy who has control issues but the Royals aren't a team who takes a ton of walks either (they're dead last for those who want the stats to back things up). Lot's of reasons why Chatwood should get 16+ points on DK today which on this slate is fine. Yes, I said only 16, don't go out there expecting another 38 or 28 from this guy today.
Guys I am not using
- Luis Castillo - Should win but I suspect you see fewer K's than you'd like.
- Carlos Carrasco
It's been a rough couple of days for the #1 team in this section in terms of putting up a huge score. But the entire league is down offensively, which really continues to shift towards what I ranted about yesterday in terms of going all in killing your upside (despite saying go lots of Twins). This is mostly due to the extra arms in the bullpens but I also sense hitters are the ones who are suffering the most from lack of energy in stadiums. Maybe that's been the key to the Athletics and Rays being so good with pitching all these years. Who knew?
So here are the teams I'd focus on.
Toronto Blue Jays
Bo Bichette, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Teoscar Hernandez
Generally against RHP they have had Teoscar batting lower in the lineup and this should bode well for him today to not have the pressure of being at the top of the order. It has been Bichette that I have been monitoring the most and was glad to see him have a good game last night. If you had Bichette and Vlad yesterday they weren't bad outside of Vlad being at a position that wen't off. They are the two best plays here but I really expect Teoscar to get ahold of one too.
Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada
I am not a believer in Lindblom at all. Chicago was swinging the bats fairly well until they ran into a tough Adrian Houser last night and the good Brewers pen. This slate drives us back to Chicago though as the White Sox top of the order Robert-Moncada combination looks prime today.
Andrew McCutchen, Jean Segura, Rhys Hoskins
One might say they have a hard time imagining the Yankees NOT popping a few out against Zach Eflin and they'll be chalky as usual and with Coors gone we'll see all the auto-play choices pivot to the white hot Aaron Judge. But the side I prefer and lean on here is the Phillies who to me grade out more consistently in which batters to target.
It might be a Thursday, but you are spending money at catcher today unless you go Tucker B.
- JT Realmuto
- Willson Contreras
- Tucker Barnhart
Box score watchers will see that Joey Votto went 0-4 yesterday. What they won't see is that while leaving 4 men LOB he ended up bailing out the Indians pitchers (Sunshine mostly) late in the count and was just missing on two loud outs. He was locked in and is a guy who never strikes out obviously so the BABIP of being a LiC is no doubt going to fall in his favor tonight.
- Joey Votto
- Vladdy G
- Rhys Hoskins
- Ketel Marte
- Jon Berti
- Yoan Moncada
- Brian Anderson
- Jean Segura
- Bo Bichette ... Don't be that guy who played him Tue & Wed and then didn't play him on a short slate.
- Freddy Galvis
- Francisco Lindor
OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Aaron Judge
- Luis Robert ... I am not a beleiver in Lindblom and the White Sox are the prime bounce back team to look at tonight.
- Andrew McCutchen
Outfield - Tier 2
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Austin Hays
- Jonathan Villar
- Nick Castellanos
Outfield - Value
- Shogo Akiyama
- Anthony Santander
- Eloy Jimenez
BEST CONTEST REFRESHER
These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:
- 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it's the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what's the point? These type of contests usually aren't as common and they're a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They're smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
- Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
- Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren't about making money. Sorry.
- Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you're in a slump, play one of these.
- Joey Votto - 1B - Cincinnati Reds - Chairman of the Dongers Club
- JT Realmuto - C - Philadelphia
- Teoscar Hernandez - OF - Toronto
- Francisco Lindor - SS - Cleveland
- Brian Anderson - 3B - Miami
- Luis Robert - OF - White Sox
- Aaron Hicks - OF - Yankees
- Mike Moustakas - 2B - Cincinnati
- BONUS ........................... Rhys Hoskins - 1B - Phillies