The Dongers Club - Fri, Aug 7th
So we have arguably our first 'normal' slate of the season today. Everyone is playing but only 13 games are on the DFS main slates with two 6pm games (Baltimore vs Washington, which is likely PPD and New York vs Tampa in Tropicana Field). The Tigers return to our lives today and I know that everyone here is equally excited as me to see the Tigers and Pirates square off today.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals ... You know what. Fuck the Cardinals. Let's just remove them from the MLB season and move along? Yeah, more positive tests from these morons who cannot follow procedures. Fine them and suspend them.
Moving on. We have seen scoring come way down this year as the league wide batting average has been hovering in the .230's. A couple reasons for this. Number one is the expanded bullpens has been a big favor to the pitching side as they're able to always have a fresh arm despite having played many consecutive days.
Number two though is the one you should be monitoring and that's my eye test on seeing batters take "tired" swings or just not squaring the ball up very well. I think there's some logic to put into the fact that they all sat for months and have been doing nothing but batting practice type swings for a long time and now they're doing real PA and basically giving up deep into counts. Somewhere I could go pull the metrics on how many HR have been hit deep into counts but I'd venture to guess it's not as many as in years past as hitters are just settling to put the ball into play rather than doing the HR swing of years past. Something that should benefit players is a single day off (not many days, just one) and we saw that yesterday with Miguel Sano, Freddie Freeman, and Christian Yelich all who sat the day before and all homered yesterday. It's worth monitoring.
This weekend we have No Coors, No Camden, No Yankee Stadium, No Wrigley Wind, No Great American Ballpark. In other words, there's no easy button opto for folks to use simply because of weather/stadium environment. However. My analysis tells me this...
The bats will wake up this weekend, starting today.
12 games, sites lock at 7PM.
Oh, and it is Mike Trout's birthday as he heads to his favorite stadium in ... oh wait, they removed his favorite stadium and replaced it with a Graveyard... Happy Birthday Mike!
- Partly Cloudy in Philadelphia but with lots of humidity in the air due to rain/storms around the area. Chance for delays but game likely plays.
- Marlins / Mets - Same deal ... Some rain showers but game should play.
We have a slate where I think you have to consider the $ for the pitchers based upon the site you are on. Take note of that as someone is a different level of value based upon their site.
This is a case of FanDuel over DraftKings where Greinke is only $8,800 compared to Trevor Bauer and his $11,400 price tag on FanDuel. They're $400 apart on DK so over there you'd likely go with Bauer who has a better strikeout match-up and is facing a lineup not quite as imposing. That said, Greinke might be finally settling in with Martin Maldanado as his catcher coming off a superb start last outing in Anaheim and with a tired bullpen I hope Dusty Baker decides to take a nap in the dugout and let Greinke get to 100+ pitches today. Oakland has poor metrics against the junk/change-up threat that Greinke has and should not do much damage in their big home park today.
But on DraftKings, Bauer is the preferred play.
Canning is right on the edge for me, but going into the Texas Graveyard always presents a favorable reason to use a pitcher. He's been better at home but also good against lefties in his career and in a short span the Home/Road splits can be thrown out IMO because he pitches in a decent park compared to some others in his division. The Texas Rangers hit a little bit on the road but hit absolutely nothing at home.
OUTSIDE OF THE BOX
I don't feel comfortable outside of the top two guys above, but here's some mid range choices for DK
Not in love with it, but he'll win today as I expect Colorado to hit Kikuchi and do well vs the Mariners pen. Senzatella falls into the Chatwood category of someone who's gonna fall off soon but this is a day we can trust him on DK if paired with Bauer.
As hot as the Marlins might appear, it's their pitching which carries them.
2020 is so damn wild.
Guys I am not using
- Yusei Kikuchi - My lord this has to be the biggest trap play on the board. You are chasing if you go with Yusei
- Matt Boyd - Typically the Pirates have been a team to attack with LHP and one could argue for Boyd on FD at $7900, but do you really want a Tigers pitcher on a 1 SP site???
I said above I see the hitting spots waking up and there's more than just these teams who could fit into that category today but these are the most certain ones in my mind.
Toronto Blue Jays
Teoscar Hernandez, Vlad Guerrero Jr, Beaux Bichette, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
So Tesocar Hernandez might not be at the level of a Freeman or Yelich per say (duuuuh) but he did get yesterday off and holy hell Teoscar Hernandez in Fenway Park. Just 20 games he has 9 home runs in Fenway Park while getting shitty Ryan Weber and a blah bullpen behind it. We all benefited from the lock Beaux Bichette homer last night, but Teoscar and Vlad Guerrero Jr are monster plays in this spot.
Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Franmil Reyes
Here's a live look at Francisco Lindor upon arriving to Chicago for this weekends series knowing that Jose Ramirez is alive and well ahead of him now. The Indians were a little cold, but a homer from Franmil a couple days ago followed up by Jose Ramirez and the rest of the team EXPLODING in one inning last night is a fantastic sign for them going into a spot they have excelled in over the recent years. Really like Cleveland today anchored by Lindor, Bubba and Franmil Reyes.
Marcell Ozuna, Freddie Freeman
Probably the most logical spot on the board against Vincent Velasquez who has never had much luck against these Braves. One can easily make a case this is the best offensive environment on the slate and using one of the best lineups so far this season makes too much sense. Weather is an issue here, but mostly an issue for the pitchers.
WEST COAST HAMMERS
So far through the season the late night games have been the most beneficial offensively and I see that shifting a bit but there are three very tempting spots later tonight
- Arizona: They always do well in PETCO, especially Peralta and Escobar
- Colorado: Kikuchi is trash and the Mariners bullpen is worse.
- LA Dodgers: Probably the most chalky one of them all.
- Travis d'Arnaud ... I think he murders Philly if I am not mistaken.
- Robinson Chirinos: There's a long running joke about the DK algo putting guys way overpriced for no reason and them going off. DK algo knows it's Friday.
- Curt Casali - Best value at C today.
- Freddie Freeman
- Vlad Guerrero Jr.
- Yeah, no, I'm not even gonna bother trying to find a third option.
- Cesar Hernandez
- Luis Arraez ... Seriously trying to imagine how the hell Junis gets him out and ... Yeah, I got nothing.... And he isnt playing. I guess that's how he doesnt have a 4-4 game.
- Cavan Biggio
- Bubba Ramirez
- GOAT (Nolan)
- BABY GOAT (Riley)
- THE MAYOR (Shaw)
I know I hyped up Lindor a ton but be smart on your salary $ on DK today. Guys like Didi Gregorius and Xander Bogaerts' savings is significant here and they're equally good plays today as well as Jorge Polanco who feels like the safest play on the board to get you a good medium score.
- Francisco Lindor
- Beaux Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore
- Marcell Ozuna
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Max Kepler
- Ronald Acuna
Outfield - Tier 2
- Franmil Reyes
- Starling Marte
- Michael Brantley
- Andrew McCutchen
Outfield - Value
- Nick Senzel - DK Bargain of the day
- AJ Pollock
- Jay Bruce
- Cole Kahoun
BEST CONTEST REFRESHER
These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:
- 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it's the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what's the point? These type of contests usually aren't as common and they're a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They're smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
- Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
- Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren't about making money. Sorry.
- Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you're in a slump, play one of these.
- Teoscar Hernandez - OF - Blue Jays - Chairman of the Dongers Club
- Cesar Hernandez - 2B - Indians
- Marcell Ozuna - OF - Braves
- Vlad Guerrero Jr - 1B - Blue Jays
- Nick Senzel - OF - Reds
- Austin Riley - 3B - Braves
- Jorge Polanco - SS - Twins
- Travis d'Arnaud - C - Braves
- BONUS ........................... Francisco Lindor - SS - Indians