The Dongers Club - July 30th

srenner

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Tuesday, July 30th

Near full 14 game slate tonight with a ton of great new series opening up. Below will be a quick thought breakdown on those new series popping up and how to approach series in general. I swear it's something I have referenced before, but I figure it was a good time to reference it again.

Dongers Club Appreication Championships Update

Only one person used Marte last night! -10 for the other guys. I'll have leaderboard updates once they move into the week.

WEATHER

All games play.

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What a bad slate for pitching we have tonight. Justin Verlander, Charlie Morton, Shane Bieber are the three highest priced arms today and all three are in spots where the strikeout potential should be lowered and the win risk is also greatly lowered. Verlander and Bieber are facing each other so one could look for a nice pitchers duel here but I lean this being an offensive game with two red hot offenses. Morton facing the Red Sox for the second time in a week? He will pitch well for 5 innings but I don't wanna pay that price for an SP against Boston even coming off a Yankee series.

Then we have what I think are BAD.... No... HORRIBLE chalk options tonight. Two guys who have pitched TERRIBLE and a classic case of perception and reality not aligning up. I am speaking about Jake Odorizzi and Griffin Canning who face the Marlins and Tigers respectively. Two of the bottom in the league offenses against RHP.

Jake Odorizzi ... Let's go over him first against the Marlins. He's not keeping the ball anywhere near grass of late having given up 2 HR in 4 of his last 7 starts overall and he really hasn't had a good start since early JUNE for crying out loud. Yeah, it's a nice park to pitch in. Yeah, the Marlins are a soft team (who just went off last night). Odorizzi has shown ZERO point ZERO chance in the last 8 weeks of topping 21 fantasy points tonight on DK. Recent form matters and his form sucks.

Griffin Canning ... Speaking of recent form sucking for $5,000 Alex. This definitely feels like a get right type of spot for Griffin Canning, but then you need to completely remove his name and that new shiny object love affair that ppl have with pitchers in MLB DFS and realize that he has been worse than Odorizzi has. He had his last start skipped because he was forced to pitch 2 innings in relief against the Orioles in a marathon game -- but I'll throw that game out the window because a starter being forced to pitch in relief is always weird. Canning was really good when he first game up and even had a nice start against the Tigers, but he's completely fallen off a cliff like most of the Angels pitchers have. He's mediocre at best and by mediocre I mean not that great. Furthermore, I think BABIP is the mother of all stupid stats that is referenced as to a PITCHER getting unlucky. But lets go down this rabbit hole for a second. Canning has had what we're supposed to believe is a bad stretch of luck lately giving up a BABIP over .500 in his last 4 appearances. Yeah, you know why? Because he's getting squared the hell up. His first pitch strikes have plummeted and anything he throws near the plate is getting touched up. A good game from Canning tonight would be 5 innings, 2 ER and 5 strikeouts.

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So there, if you wanna roll Canning and Odorizzi chalk and then cry when they dont hit 20 be my guest. I'll take some other longshots tonight.

MY PLAYS

Now that we got that out of the way -- here's some guys I am actually recommending tonight. Granted, I cant wait for someone to just skim this article and say I wrote up Odorizzi and Canning as my top two plays.

Joe Musgrove

With risk comes great opportunity, or so I think that's a famous quote... With lots of mediocre pitching options that dont offer upside I would take a risk tonight and I expect Musgrove to pitch well here. He's rarely had two horrible starts in a row and is a very emotional pitcher who should be ready to bounce back tonight against the Reds.

Noah Syndergaard

I am not in love with considering a pitcher who is on the trade block, but Thor's pitching decent of late and has a really good match-up compared to the other high priced arms today. Chicago gives him a spot where he can get 8+ strikeouts and a good chance at a win tonight. Most upside is with Thor IMO. Just beware of the pulled because of a trade risk which is very HIGH.

Chris Bassitt

Milwaukee falls into middle of the road when they go on the road, big ballpark and Bassitt is actually a nice under the radar option today. He has shown great command and Milwaukee is a nice ~24% road strike-out team. Even getting the DH that doesn't help them enough tonight and none of the Brewers hitters stand out to me today. I'll take this risk over Canning and Odorizzi.

DK PITCHER PAIRINGS RANKED

  1. Thor and Musgrove
  2. Musgrove & Bassitt

FD ARMS RANKED

  1. Thor
  2. Musgrove
  3. Bassitt
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Projected Chalk: Coors, Nats, Yankees Angels ... Relatively speaking the ownership will be spread around tonight. Nothing obscene..

Tonight is a slate that has mini-combo and mini-stack all over it. Lots of teams who are in good spots and thus I love the idea of going 3-3-2 and 2-2-2-2 tonight to balance your player pool around as a differenator while others go all in.

RANGERS 

We need to monitor if Mike Leake gets scratched but if he doesn't then this is a money spot with a team who should hit plenty of homers tonight back in the Texas 100 degree temps. Noma Mazara is a must and Asdrubal Cabrera has pretty much only hit at home this season. But ultimately with Texas you want those homers so getting exposure throughout is a logical move today.

GIANTS (2% OWNED ON DK)

I kinda documented in Drew Smyly's last start that I am not too much of a fan of his. He got by against a Pirates team who obviously sucks vs LHP but will make his first start at home in Philly against a sneaky good team (at least in the second half) going into a MASSIVE park shift in the Giants. That along with one EXTREME GOLDEN TICKET NUGGET HERE. The Phillies are the absolute WORST team in the league out of the bullpen against LH hitting. Worse than the Pirates. And no chance Vargas is available to pitch out of the pen for them tonight. So with all these Giants lefties and the fact that Smyly probably hits 5 innings tops we get a bonus 6-9 inning stack accelerator.

ADD: Phillies ... This game is gonna have some fireworks in it. Kingery-Segura-Rhys-Franco

ASTROS

LiC aside, Houston is rolling along and murdered non Trevor Bauer Indians pitchers in Cleveland last season and with their current hot streak from Springer to Altuve and Alvarez and Correa now picking it up for Gurriel who was carrying them they have the depth to turn the line-up over and over again. But yeah. Yordan LiC Alvarez and Michael Brantley returning home are good spots to start here today.

  • Bregman, Brantley, Alvarez, Correa, Reddick

SNEAKY / 3 man stacks

INDIANS ... Hot team and facing someone who has had some big mental challenges pitching in this ballpark.

  • Lindor-Ramirez-Santana

ATHLETICS ... Adrian Houser is terrible and if anyone bets the first inning team total tonight, I would throw in the Athletics there. Park and their recent stretch isn't the best but Chapman-Olson Davis to me make for a nice late night hammer.

  • Olson-Chapman-Davis

FADES

  • Coors Field
  • Yankees/Red Sox: I fade them when they play first game after facing each other. I just do it and it usually works out.
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So here's my confidence level with C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS tonight ....

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And then here is my feelings on the OUTFIELD position tonight

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Below are the plays that I will be looking towards for my main lineup tonight.

CATCHER

Can't say I love anyone at this position today besides TDA, but if you are spending down on pitching like I am then it's worth taking a guy above 3K.

  1. Travis MF d'Arnaud bitches!!
  2. Buster Posey
  3. Willson Contreras
  4. Omar Narvaez

FIRST BASE

On a 14 game slate going to Matt Olson against the Brewers in big Oakland feels .... unique. But yeah, picking on Houser is where I'm at here.

  1. Matt Olson
  2. Josh Bell ... Has really cooled off, gets Roark, in Cincy. Kinda thinking that changes tonight.
  3. Anthony Rizzo
  4. Tyler Austin

SECOND BASE

This is a really bad position again today. Altuve is white hot, and certainly when he is rolling and on the road you gotta consider him, but Cano's price makes a ton of sense to justify using him.

  1. Robinson Cano ... Factoring in price he is the top play here today.
  2. Jose Altuve
  3. Ketel Marte

THIRD BASE

Update ... Lots of options here but none are amazing IMO and Donaldson being a gut call is nice and all but Justin Turner will get something tonight and thus I'll eat that chalk

  1. Josh Donaldson ... Rendon last night, JD tonight.
  2. Jose Ramirez
  3. Asdrubal Cabrera
  4. Kyle Seager ... Oh hey there Kyle Seager, welcome to the 2019 season. So nice of you to join us.

SHORTSTOP

  1. Francisco Lindor
  2. Xander Bogaerts ... If there's one guy I'll touch on Boston, its X. One of the hottest hitters of late and hits C-Mort well.
  3. Miguel Rojas ... When someone like Miguel Rojas is hot, its worth noting.

OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore

Love these guys and would get 2+ on any one off lineup you build.

  1. Yordan Alvarez
  2. Nomar Mazara ... Imaging playing Mike Trout against Mike Leake, but not playing Nomar Mazara against him?
  3. Juan Soto
  4. Scott Kingery

OUTFIELD - Tier 2

  1. Michael Brantley
  2. David Peralta
  3. Ronald Acuna Jr
  4. Shin-Soo Choo

OUTFIELD - Value

  1. Khris Davis ... Sigh, can't believe Im going here again -- but yea -- revenge game here too for you narrative folks.
  2. Adam Jones
  3. Brian Anderson
  4. Niko Goodrum
  5. Josh Reddick
  6. Adam Hasseley
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THE CHAIRMAN

  1. Yordan Alvarez - OF - Astros - #LiC

THE REST

  1. Anthony Rizzo - 1B - Cubs
  2. Travis d'Arnaud - C - Rays
  3. Robinson Cano - 2B - Mets
  4. Josh Donaldson - 3B - Braves
  5. Francisco Lindor - SS - Indians
  6. Brian Anderson - OF - Marlins
  7. Juan Soto - OF - Nationals
  8. BONUS ........... Nomar Mazara - OF - Rangers
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