So by now you likely heard that the Orioles-Marlins & Yankees-Phillies games have been PPD due to the Marlins having a large number of positive COVID tests. I do not think this is a doom and gloom scenario, but I am not going to waste time or brain cells going into the debate of that for now. I will mention that I believe their solution in the immediate short term is to move the Yanks-Phillies series up to NY because they are going there on Wednesday anyways, and do the same with the Orioles/Marlins series. Although the Marlins have a lot of empty roster spots to fill in the short term.
Otherwise, let's stay focused on tonights games.
- Slate locks as early as 6:10 depending on which site you are on and it appears this will be the norm going forward this year.
- Fun fact: The last game to start tonight is the game that is the furthest East (Boston)
- Toronto at Washington is only on FanDuel
We also have the return of Monday wrap-around homestands! With COVID this year, this could prove to be even stronger. The below teams are home today after being home to start the season as well
- Tampa Bay
Cubs vs Reds - Rain 30%
The biggest RAIN issue spot to monitor. This is a four game series so they have two days to do a DH (Tue/Wed) if they PPD it tonight. As my brain slowly comes out of MLB hibernation I am remembering now that Cincinnati is a field which drains very well and they either cancel it early or wait it out and play. It's an early slate lock as well, so too early for me to call it one way or another. Either way though you aren't using a SP in this game.
Royals at Tigers - Mid 80's, Wind 12+ MPH out to Left Center. 60% humidity.
COMERICA WIND!!!!!!! Less than one week into the season and I have my favorite weather factor spot of all stadiums. The WIND in COMERICA is blowing out around 12 mph to left center field. HUGE boost for RH hitters. HUGE. It's also obviously JULY, so we have a hot game in Detroit which isn't the norm for that stadium.
Mets at Red Sox - 90 degrees, Wind 9 MPH out to Right Center (Deepest part of park)
White Sox at Indians - Light rain, high humidity, wind cross and out to ... wait for it ... Right Field
Here is the bottom line regarding Pitching choices for tonight. We are dealing with a 7 game slate on DraftKings (8 on FanDuel) with games in good hitters parks that have potentially bad weather. So right away on DraftKings you are down to five games and then the highest priced pitcher on the slate (Folty) has been HORRIFIC ever since he got whooped last October in the playoffs. I feel very confident in saying there's nobody out there today who is going to run away with the slate tonight. Don't get negative is the goal but at the same time don't think you are stupid for going off the reservation with a pitcher.
Tyler Glasnow (FD/DK)
So when we have a dicey slate, we can go with the best strike-out flame thrower on the board. Good pitchers park and obviously he has to deal with future HOF Matt Adams (it's a joke) and a really damn good lineup but if his control is on then he will finish with enough strikeouts to make it worth using him.
Steven Brault (DK)
Milwaukee has usually been good in Pittsburgh, however gone are some of the key guys who helped them in the previous seasons and while many will see a heavy R vs LHP lineup today, I don't love this park for righties in general unless they are named Marlon Byrd. Brault's had issues in the past with walks but this is a case of picking on a bad hitting team before everyone realizes they're not that good offensively.
- Some are concerned by the designation on pitchers on DK. Brault is going more than just an opener setup tonight, he is slated to go 3+ innings for sure and at his dirt cheap price I still like him. That said, you don't need that much value on DK today but it's hard to find many options. I mean, I could say Josh Hader who hasn't even pitched yet as he should get an IP and strikeout the side. But I'm fine still with Brault. Don't go Kuhl.
- If you want another wildcard SP on DK, fantasybum likes Graveman - but my wild card SP2 is Wade Miley
Outside of the Box Play
Trent Thornton - (FD)
2020 is so damn weird, I'm recommending Trent Thornton. Unfortunately I cannot use him on DK where I really want too, but the issue with Thornton is always lefties and the Nationals have none with Soto out. Adam Eaton and Eric Thames obviously pose a threat, but the Jays should win this game.
A few thoughts on guys I am not using
- Folty - He is nowhere near right and I don't want any part of him as the highest priced arm until he proves it multiple times out. So basically not until 2021.
- Josh James - I know the talent is pretty strong but no reason to expect him to throw more than 3 or 4 innings. Give me Brault instead.
- Michael Fulmer - He is an opener, pay attention people.
NY Mets vs Boston Red Sox
Pete Alonso, Michael Conforto, Yo Cespedes! and if you are feeling lucky, Robinson Cano
Boston's pitching might be worse than we first anticipated and that is pretty terrifying to consider. Throw in some great hitting conditions and a one pitch lefty pitcher in Fenway and we've got ourselves a major disaster coming up tonight. This kid Osh Kosh B'Gosh for the BoSawx is going to throw his cutter to Alonso and watch it get drilled off the monster at 150 mph, then piss his pants, throw Conforto (who is sneaky vs LHP) a fastball which will get drilled off the monster as well and then after the catcher comes out and says, yo dude, just trust your stuff, he'll go back to the cutter and watch it land through someone's windshield out somewhere on the Mass Turnpike and then we'll have 24x7 news coverage on why because this Osh Kosh B'Gosh pitcher wasn't wearing a mask some Harvard Kid blowing his parents money crashed his car and died from Covid when Cespedes hits a 3 run homer through the sun roof of his Volvo wagon....
And that is just the first inning. After this kid opens tonight we get ... ZACH GODLEY..... Yup. The Mets! Meet the Mets!
Oh I like Xander tonight too
Kansas City Royals
Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon, Maikel Franco & birthday boy MONDESI!
Never go five Royals they say. Yeah well the COMERICA WIND I SAY. In order of preference I would look at Soler and Franco for the power today as Soler murdered Detroit pitching last season and Franco should profile well against Fulmer if he gets to face him (Fulmer being an opener this year). Mondesi's birthday today for those who l like that and it's mostly Whit/Mondesi combination where if you play one you play both because of double steals and the Royals preference to just keep the line moving. Alex Gordon in Comerica is a thing I believe in and hell I didn't even get to Salvy who benefits from the wind as well.
Bottom line, I love the Royals tonight and if you play them, go Soler or Franco as a one off or go 5 Royals on DK.
Other teams that you should look at
- Tigers: Same wind boost as the Royals. Niko/Schoop/Cron/Maybin
Love these guys today, all three in great hitting environments and it's a nice #CatcherMonday
- Yasmani Grandal
- Wilson Ramos
- Salvador Perez
If you pay up anywhere it's for Alonso in my mind. But reading what I wrote above he should be considered heavily + Conforto and Cespedes all together. Cron is part of the Tigers/Royals weather stack.
- Pete Alonso - Tough on DK at that price. But man if someone breaks the slate in a Nelson Cruz way it has to be him.
- CJ Cron
- Josh Bell
Close your eyes and pray, they're all even here today. Play Niko Goodrum on DK at 2B.
- Cavan Biggio
- Shed Long Jr
- Robinson Cano - Old Boston nemesis returns at the age of 79 and hits two scorching singles!
I think most will go Suarez or Bryant here, but I am going to live and die with the one off out of nowhere calls I make and Franco is that today.
- Maikel Franco
- Yoan Moncada
- Kris Bryant
- Xander Bogaerts
- Niko Goodrum
- Kevin Newman
OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore
- Yoenis Cespedes
- Jorge Soler
- JD Martinez
- Philip Ervin
Outfield - Tier 2
- Michael Conforto
- Arisitdes Aquino
- Whit Merrifield
Outfield - Value
- Alex Gordon
- Nicky Delmonico
- Kyle Lewis
- Bryan Reynolds
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- Maikel Franco - 3B - Royals - Chairman
- Yoenis Cespedes - OF - Mets
- Peter Alonso - 1B - Mets
- Yasmani Grandal - C - White Sox
- Niko Goodrum - SS - Tigers
- Jorge Soler - OF - Royals
- Kyle Lewis - OF - Mariners
- Cavan Biggio - 2B - Blue Jays
- BONUS .......................... Xander Bogaerts - SS - Red Sox