The Dongers Club - Tue July 28th

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SLATE INTRO

So by now you likely heard that the Orioles-Marlins & Yankees-Phillies games have been PPD due to the Marlins having a large number of positive COVID tests. I do not think this is a doom and gloom scenario, but I am not going to waste time or brain cells going into the debate of that for now. Yes, I totally just copy/pasted what I wrote yesterday about those games. De Ja Vu.

Hopefully this is a DeJaVu slate from last night as well, although the Maikel Franco gift game isn't something you get every day and when it comes along I'll see it and say it and then let's make sure not to get cute and try to force chase it elsewhere. It was a damn good night, I took down about $5k total winnings between the two sites and it likely would have been more had I trusted FantasyBum with the Graveman SP2 because my SP2 dart was a disaster. I'm very happy though that everyone hit me up with their winning screenshots and that ya'll are doing well following along with the advice.

We're on to Tuesday. Our FIRST TUESDAY of the 2020 season!

  • DraftKings locks at 7pm, so it's only a 10 game slate there.
  • FanDuel is set to lock at 6:40 with the Braves/Rays and Cubs/Reds games being on that site. They are both relevant too.
  • White Sox and Indians are playing two today, with the first game this afternoon and then they roll right into the second game. Lineup confirmations before lock could be an issue in this spot.

WEATHER

There are no issues today, but a few things to make note of

  • We have the Comerica Wind situation again today, although it appears slightly less. The wind is blowing out to left center, which doesn't mean just homers to left as the ball has some weird carry to right center in this stadium when the wind is going out to left center as well. It's odd, and I can't explain it. But the Royals set a franchise record for home runs in a game last night for those who are wondering how well the theory holds up. Again, slightly less today, but still solid.
  • I'm curious when the Rangers are going to get pissed and force the roof open. When it does open it has to help slightly, but I still view this as a Pitchers park.
  • All games play
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In coaching whenever you lose by a ton you always look at the tape and say it wasn't as bad as it felt. When you win by a ton you look at the tape and always say it's not as clean as it felt. Tonight is a dumpster fire pitching slate on the surface. That's not the actual case though. Last night was a dumpster fire because we had a limited amount of options and most of them were likely to only throw 3 innings (like Josh James, who was somehow chalk on DK!?!?!?!?!).

Tonight on the other hand, we just have guys who don't blow your socks off but in my mind we're going to be looking back at the end of the night and saying there were a bunch of pitchers who wound up doing good enough to not destroy your lineups.

Merrill Kelly

The downside of Kelly is that when he gets squared up the ball travels far and since he has come back to the U.S. his trends have been to get squared up by RH batters more than anything else. What better ballpark to pitch in than the graveyard (I think that is our winner. Yes, The Graveyard is the winner for the new Texas Stadium. Trademark it!). The ball is dead here and as long as they're keeping that roof closed I'll keep looking here for pitching choices. The Arizona Diamondbacks are the better team so I like Kelly to win and he can strikeout enough Rangers to make him easily a good pitching choice on this mediocre slate. Everyone will immediately run away from his $10K price tag on DK and I can't click it fast enough.

Jeff Samardzija (DK SP2)

The fact that the Giants have kept pushing him back is a big concern for me - but I'll let him being a veteran and facing a mediocre lineup cancel it out for only $6500 on DraftKings tonight. Giants home opener in their new smaller dimension stadium but it doesn't bother me at all. Cool temps and I like how the Shark matches up against everyone except Hosmer who is questionable.

Kyle Wright (FD Only)

SUPER bummed this game is not on DraftKings. Wright is the 2nd best SP in the Braves rotation right now behind Soroka. He has velocity (upper 90's) on his fastball and he has the breaking stuff that he can mix up against both leftites and righties as an out pitch. The Rays do offer strike-out upside and I'll put my FanDuel lineup on the risk that Mike Zunino of all people won't homer in back to back games. He would be a no doubt guy to consider on DK if this game was on that slate too (you can play him early there). The stuff is good and I am optimistic about him working with the younger Braves catchers who have been forced into action.

Outside of the Box Play

Walk Out The Door GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

Carlos Martinez

10 Signs You Know You're Socially Awkward | Her Campus
Video | This dude looks like a final boss in some American video ...

OK, so hear me out ...

That awkward moment when... | Family guy meme, Funny cartoons ...

You know what, nevermind.... Just give it some thought, ok?

14 GIFs Of Cool Guys Walking Away From Explosions | Wolverine ...

Seriously though. His first start in the rotation since 2018, and I think he's going to be super motivated and focused -- which is 99% of the problem with Carlos Martinez. Yadier won't let him completely fuck up and the Twins coming back home and seeing their families for the first time in a while could lead to a slow start + ... okay, I lost your attention. If you read this far you are on board with the play or just really bored.

A few thoughts on guys I am not using

  • Walker Buehler - Not yet. Not until I am confident he can go over 90 pitches and given that he's facing Houston there's just no reason to force this in today. Walker at home maybe, but not here.
  • Kyle Gibson - I just have this terrible feeling about using Gibson with the way the Rangers are playing poor defensive right now. Should generate some grounders against Arizona and get BABIP'd to death, plus I want the win with Merrill Kelly which I feel is a good play today.
  • Zach Davies - My lifetime allotment of using Zach Davies in DFS has been met.
  • Daniel Mengden - Oakland's plan is clear. Starters go 4 innings tops then turn to the pen.
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I do not have ONE team above all others today. I like this slate for spreading out exposure to multiple spots.

Detroit Tigers

Niko Goodrum, Jonathan Schoop, CJ Cron

Ah. Kyle Zimmer gets the start for Kansas City and they claim he will throw 50 pitches. So he might make it out of the first inning. Zimmer is immune to strikes at the big league level, the former Royals prospect has almost run out of chances and really is just an arm until their waive of prospect pitchers comes up. So let's examine how the first inning should wind up for him today.

  • Niko Goodrum walks on 6 pitches
  • Jonathan Schoop doubles to right field, Goodrum scores.
  • Miguel Cabrera walks
  • CJ Cron, ball in play, run(s), homers on a fly ball on a 2-0 count to left field.
  • 4-0 Tigers

And then we get the Royals bullpen!

Oakland Athletics

Matt Chapman, Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Mark Canha, Sean Murphy

The only way I see this entirely working out is if you get some unders on the early games and I would full Oakland stack with another team because this is either first or last play. Senzasmella is not good at missing bats and the Athletics should be licking their chops on his poor fastball. Oakland staying at home could be getting into a nice offensive groove here with the Rockies and their mediocre pen coming into town. Unfortunately this is a yucky hitters park with mediocre weather -- but Oakland will find a way to score 7.

Other teams that you should look at

  • Cardinals: Between Carpenter and Molina they have seen over 400 pitches in their long lives from Homer Bailey. And the results are incredible for Carp/Molina. Obviously a lot of that is in Cincinnati, but them along with two guys who should rake in this park Goldy/DeJong makes the Cardinals too hard to ignore.
  • Royals: They have murdered Detroit last year and so far through one game the results look good no? Nobody the Tigers roll out should be a major issue for considering the Royals again today and I do believe that is Alex Gordon's music I hear playing.
  • Angels: I don't think Rendon is back but I wouldn't focus on him as much as Fletcher-Trout for a late night exposure from the Halos back at home vs Sheffield and the Mariners.

FADES

  • Boston
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CATCHER

  1. Willson Contreras (FD)
  2. Yadier Molina ... I respect the Twins bullpen, but a 4 man Cards stack MUST include Yadi. It simply MUST.
  3. Sean Murphy

FIRST BASE

Someone please turn the lights off on the reservation because I am going off it tonight at first. Sure Rizzo on FD against Mahle and sure Alonso hit's bombs and yeah Ryan Braun gets Derek Holland. Cron and Freeman homer tonight.

  1. CJ Cron
  2. Matt Olson
  3. Freddie Freeman (FD)

SECOND BASE

  1. Jonathan Schoop
  2. Ketel Marte
  3. Keston Hiura

THIRD BASE

Very solid position tonight. Fletcher+Trout sleeper combo for late night hammer crowd.

  1. David Fletcher
  2. Matt Chapman
  3. Matt Carpenter
  4. Justin Turner

SHORTSTOP

  1. Amed Rosario
  2. Niko Goodrum
  3. Paul DeJong

OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore

  1. Mike Trout ... Give me Trout over JD Martinez by a mile tonight for high priced OF.
  2. Jorge Soler
  3. Yoenis Cespedes
  4. Jason Heyward (FD)

Outfield - Tier 2

  1. George Springer ... His 1st AB is everything
  2. Whit Merrifield ... Two hit whit
  3. Lorenzo Cain

Outfield - Value

  1. Mark Canha
  2. Alex Gordon - Primary Royal to focus on today.
  3. Michael Brantley - Criminal pricing on DK, you want a punt OF besides these other boys then he's the guy.
  4. Dexter Fowler
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TODAYS HITTING THOUGHTS

I am not as high on going "All In" per say on teams like the Mets, Red Sox, Cubs, Reds, Twins as others might be today. To me they have plenty of one offs in those games to consider but you could also make a strong case for going heavy on the Astros against a Walker Buehler who isn't up to his full speed yet and Houston could DEFINITELY jump on him early tonight (why I like Springer). But for me I would either try to go with a 2-2-2 type core build from the popular spots I just mentioned or trust a 4 man build of the teams in the hitting breakdown. It's that kind of build night.

It's the kind of night where we MUST be confident in fading a team from a hitting perspective.

I am fading the Reds, Red Sox and every Met not named Amed Rosario

BEST CONTEST REFRESHER

These are the things I look for the most and encourage you to do it as well. We are all going to chase big $ contests w/ multiple lineups and that is fine, but you need balance in your MLB portfolio, so add the Dongers Club Growth Funds:

  1. 10x to first: This one is going to be hard for many of you but it's the #1 golden rule to staying profitable during the MLB grind. You need these contests mixed in more than you realize. What is 10x to first? It means that the prize for 1st Place which everyone obsesses with is 10x the entry fee. So yeah, that means a $10 contest pays out $100 to first. Or my favorite $100 pays out $1000. You are thinking what's the point? These type of contests usually aren't as common and they're a waste of time, I want my 50x to first!! Well, guess what. You will find that you win these 10x to first contests far often and that type of boost is way better than any other you will find. They're smaller and usually have folks who are late registering their contests in them. Find these. Play these.
  2. Less than 1,000 Users: Very simple rule. Avoid contests that have too many users. A big misconception is that MME is hard to beat and you cant beat someone with a single lineup if they have maxed out the limits on a contest. Not true. The more lineups they are putting in the chances are more bad lineups as well. It comes down to the TOTAL number of users you have to beat. Fewer is better.
  3. Get out of the $1 and $3 and $5 contests: If you are living here, you aren't about making money. Sorry.
  4. Play a 3-man to bust a slump: Yes, they are full of what folks call Sharks. No, they are not invincible. When you're in a slump, play one of these.
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  1. CJ Cron - 1B - Tigers - Chairman 
  2. Mike Trout - OF - Angels ... I have rules about not making Trout the Chairman because that's too easy, otherwise he would be.
  3. Willson Contreras - C - Cubs
  4. Amed Rosario - SS - Mets
  5. Justin Turner - 3B - Dodgers
  6. Jonathan Schoop - 2B - Tigers
  7. Alex Gordon - OF - Royals
  8. Jason Heyward - OF - Cubs
  9. BONUS .......................... Freddie Freeman - 1B - Braves