Friday big slates, time to dive in with a fourteen game slate (no Sox and Yanks!) that has no weather concerns on it tonight.
As we look high level overview on the slate, I personally do not feel that there's an extreme depth of high scoring environments tonight based on the combination of Pitching + Ballparks + Team Quality, etc.... But there are some really high environments that stand out tonight. To be honest, lots of Friday slates make me jump with excitement. This one, does not.
So yes, I am going to be an honest and open TOUT with you as I always am. I prefer tomorrow afternoons slate a TON over tonights.
Tonight is a slate with heavy depth at the mid range on pitching and lots of potential low $ guys who are worthy of risks too. I'm leaning going the safe route on arms tonight over the flashy name guys.
I don't mind that deGrom just saw Atlanta because the two sides have seen each other a ton obviously. The Mets desperately need a win and the only way it seems they can get that is if their starting pitcher is the one who rakes the field, throws all 9 innings, does the post game press conference himself and then turns the lights out after a shutout performance. Jake is the only one capable of doing that and honestly he is discounted given his dominance of the Braves in the past.
- COMPS: Jose Berrios
Chirinos benefits from his opponent (Texas) being typically a high strikeout team going into the pitching park that is Tropicana Field. At $8400 on DraftKings he's a little higher than ideal, but don't let that bother you from the overall data which shows a guy who holds opposing lefties to a .178 average and a lineup full of lefties who will swing and miss often.
- COMPS: He's a great FD play tonight.
Making his second start off the IL, Clevinger should present enough durability tonight (meaning he'll throw over 90 pitches) against a below average team/lineup in the Orioles but in a dangerous ballpark to pitch in. Clevinger hasn't pitched enough games for the numbers to balance out this year, but his 15K/9 and 35% K to BB ratios are insane and they do reflect his overall talent of being a high strikeout pitcher. It wouldn't shock me to see Clevinger strikeout 10 batters over just 5 innings tonight as his upside, but don't expect a 7 inning performance.
- COMPS: Mike Soroka, Merrill Kelley
A rematch from a week ago but this time down in South Beach in a park that although it hasn't been great for Elisier so far this year, it should really damage the one upside that the Phillies have in their HR pop. A bad road hitting team going into South Beach is our best value target today and one I prefer over Wacha and Lauer
- COMPS: Wacha/Lauer suckage
This slate has some obvious spots in it tonight that are a good two levels above all else, that is not to say that other spots cannot produce as well but I am going to list them separate as full stacks below. If you take a straight up approach tonight your teams are Dodgers, Indians and Rockies in my mind to target.
CHALK FAVORITE SPOT
COLORADO ROCKIES & COORS
Colorado wins this side tonight. They have crushed Ryu in Coors and just saw him last week as well and well, Nolan is going to Nolan tonight. Great Coors weather, two bad pitchers IMO and this is a spot this is the focal point game again tonight for great reason, but don't overlook the Rockies side.
A pricey team to target today going into a medium ballpark but one that I love Turner and Soto to play well in tonight and with Ryan Zimmerman back in the lineup you get some good value in this stack to make it pay off.
ST LOUIS CARDINALS
Hell no, I won't use Eric Lauer even though the Cards have some guys who struggle vs LHP. Gimme all the Ozuna I can have tonight. Pending their lineup to come out to see what is in it, but Bader and Molina are extra pieces to consider here.
KC & TORONTO
Neither team is one that has enough talent ot consider a heavy stack, but I love a mini combo here of Whit-Dozier-Gordon and Gurriel-Teoscar Hernandez.
Now my favorite plays by position...............
Solid position, don't go completely nuke punt here on DK like a donkey today without trying to fit in a good player or someone in a good ballpark like Robertoo Perez.
- Robinson Chirinos ... It's Friday, yo!
- Roberto Perez
- Kurt Suzuki
- Paul Goldschmidt: 4k'ish against Lauer in a Park he definitely knows well.
- Carlos Santana
- Hunter Dozier
- Mark Reynolds ... If he gets the start at $2900 he may break the 2-HR & ownership record for a 14 game slate previously held by Mr. Matt Adams
- Lourdes Gurriel -- On fire and hits LHP very well. OF eligible as well, tough price tag on DK though
- Nicky Lopez
- Ian Kinsler
Do you know how long I have been waiting to do this trio together at 3B this year????? That said, I am 100% playing NOLAN tonight.
- Francisco Lindor
- Nik Goodrum
- Trea Turner
OUTFIELD - Tier 1
- Joc Pederson / Cody Bellinger: Either, duh.
- Ian Desmond
- Alex Gordon
- Marcell Ozuna
OUTFIELD - Tier 2
- Whit Merrifield
- Franmil Reyes
- Oscar Mercado
- Jason Heyward
OUTFIELD - Value
- Jorge Soler
- Jon Jay
- Eloy Jimenez
- Wil Myers
- Nolan Arenado - 3B - Colorado - Chairman
- Alex Gordon - OF - KC
- Lourdes Gurriel - 2B - Toronto
- Robinson Chirinos - C - Houston
- Franmil Reyes - OF - San Diego
- Trea Turner - SS - Washington
- Carlos Santana - 1B - Cleveland
- Joc Pederson - OF - LA Dodgers
- BONUS ............................ Jason Heyward - OF - Cubs