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Another low scoring night last night across baseball. The pitchers didn't start clean but they got there and it was one of those nights where a couple guys carried the field.
Normally we would be looking at a 14 or 15 game slate today. Instead it's a day of 17 MLB games today so if you are a gambling degenerate on the games, you'll love that.
But for DFS purposes, it's only 10 games as the sites want these 7:10 lock times for the main slate.
Good news is, both DK and FD are 10 games each so the break down can be straight forward.
- Outside of a typical Atlanta random thunderstorm nothing appears worthy of discussing today.
DK Pricing on arms is once again soft.
We continue to see inter-league games being the ones that are the most beneficial for offense. I have been saying this for well over a week and while I am not letting that blindly drive my plays, it should be something you are considering with yours.
Yes, Houston scored 11 runs yesterday but if you look back the Cubs-Tigers and Royals-Cardinals were nice games to consider overall on the slate last night. Does this mean we should blindly ignore match-ups? No, but it's some good information for you to be stashing away right now. Especially considering some of the pitching choices today.
He is my guy today for a lot of the same reasons Bauer was the guy for folks last night. The Brewers offense despite some early work on Beer Chuggin Bauer is not one that scares me off of Castillo today who has yet to have that 10+ strikeout game for a second time since opening day when he struck out 11 Tigers. Castillo had a longer than normal layoff before his day game start at Kansas City last week but will be on regular rest today in an environment that's controlled and oh yeah -- not an interleague game. And thankfully for those who have been following me, you know it's not a Castillo Friday which means we won't take it in the groin (no GIF needed)
There are three guys today who all fall into that interleague theme but two of them are at home and against bad teams. I am referring to Paddack (vs SEA), Giolito (vs PIT) and Cole (at ATL). Out of all of these we should expect Giolito to be a fairly popular play on FD, while Paddack is a popular play on DK. I don't know how many will trust Cole in Atlanta but I certainly am not one to go that route tonight. The logic on Paddack to win here is not just his price discount but because Seattle has been much better against LHP lately and is a very top heavy lineup and then it falls off fast. The Pirates atleast can argue that they have enough lefties to force Giolito into deeper counts which can negate paying up for him more. All in all, there's no reason for me to force Giolito in on DK when I have Castillo locked in as SP1, so the Paddack 6 inning, 2 ER, 7 strikeout spot is perfecto today.
Outside the Box
He struggled big time in Seattle, always has a quick hook and is facing a team that's been raking vs LHP. Uhhh, wait a minute... Nope, cross that off your mind folks, this is the sleeper play tonight. If the slate wasn't so top heavy on pitching then I would have him in the tier above. Urias has not had issues with San Francisco, and the fact that he did go so quick last game lends me to think they give him more tonight as they continue to progress him into a consistent 6+ IP arm. The Giants will begin to come back to earth and Urias knows how to start that off.
Will pitch decent but I don't trust today, or ever really.
- Sean Manaea
- Rich Hill
Guys I am not on
- Gerrit Cole ... Atlanta wins.
- Shane Bieber ... Yes, LiC (lefties in Cleveland) is still a thing and yes, he can strike out eight guys and also give up 5 ER. Not a good spot for him.
Wow, lots of spots tonight that I like. So am going to break them down as quick as possible because I wouldnt load up on just one spot but rather mix your distribution around and so I'm listing my two core plays from each team.
San Diego Padres
Fernando Tatis, Wil Myers
Nobody will have San Diago today. But getting a soft tossing fastball lefty coming off a good start in Marco Gonzalez has me liking San Diego. Their power needs no explanation and unless you are going White Sox and Yankees as your CORE stacks today you are different, so might as well use a good team vs one of the worst pitching staffs in the league. Seems logical enough to me.
Chicago White Sox
Eloy Jimenez, Jose Abreu
One of the hardest hitting teams draws someone who isn't giving up a ton of hard contact but also walks a ton of batters and doesn't get much in terms of swinging strikes. Pirates pen isn't exactly world beaters either and if you wanna just take a few easy plays then Tim Anderson, Jose Abreu and Eloy Jimenez are all logical spots here. I'd avoid Moncada just because his lower body isn't quite there yet and he does better vs RHP -- but we should monitor him all week because the schedule is favorable for an outbreak.
Update: So Moncada is batting lower and Eloy is moved up to #2. This actually helps Moncada because if White Sox go off he will only see Brault once. But I am still avoiding him for now.
VALUE TEAM TO CONSIDER
Kansas City Royals
Maikel Franco, Hunter Dozier
The whole world will see Harvey here and want to pick on him -- and quite frankly I do not blame them. Goldy and Bader for sure, but the real juice to me is on the KC side in this likely high scoring affair. Both SP are old and don't have a ton of juice left and Waino having a poor fastball is a big boost for Merifield, Dozier and ... believe it or not .... Adalberto Mondesi Jr.
My sleeper HR calls from KC today though are Maikel Franco and Alex Gordon. Given the temptation for many to maybe roll out Castillo & Giolito or Castillo & Bieber/Cole just for their high floors you can look at these Royals on DK (Franco, $3000; Gordon $2700; Mondesi: $2800, Dozier: 3200) and have no issues with lineup construction today. Get a Royal or two for value.
OTHER SPOTS TO CONSIDER
Ketel Marte, Starling Marte
Yes, Story in Colorado vs a Lefty and Arenado in Colorado vs a Lefty. Got it.
Okay, now for the real sharp play. Attack German Marquez.
He is a recent form pitcher if there ever was one as he will go three up, two down, three up, two down... He's trending down and the Diamondbacks breakout started to show signs of life last night. Walker smashed one to the moon, Calhoun almost had a second and this is a great spot for Starling Marte.
Max Kepler, Eddie Rosario
Don't be that guy who goes heavy on LiC one day and then doesnt the next. Ask former Indians Ace's Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer how facing the Twins at home went....
Death, taxes, Taysom Hill and value bats hitting home runs when there's lots of high priced SP who are likely gonna under-perform. It happens all the time and thus why you shouldn't have nothing but stud OF for example in your lineup today. There's lots of value bats I love -- labeled with (V).
- Yadi Molina
- Willson Contreras
- Tucker Barnhart (V)
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Eric Hosmer
- Jose Abreu
- Mike Moustakas
- Jurickson Profar
- Jonathan Schoop
- Manny Machado ... On a heater and still very cheap.
- Angry Nolan Arenado
- Maikel Franco (V)
Not much sense going value here with the value in OF today.
- Trevor Story
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Tim Anderson
OUTFIELD - Mt. Rushmore
- Eloy Jimenez
- Eddie Rosario
- Aaron Judge ... Fits the profile to destroy Ian Anderson, but at 5700 on DK it's not the best use of your salary as a one off IMO. Pair him with Hicks if you play him on DK.
- Wil Myers (V)
OUTFIELD - Tier 2
- Starling Marte / Kole Calhoun
- Franmil Reyes
- Kyle Schwarber
- Hunter Dozier
OUTFIELD - Value
- Alex Gordon (V)
- Harrison Bader (V)
- Aaron Hicks (V)
The Dongers Club
- Manny Machado - 3B - Padres
The Rest of the Club
- Max Kepler -OF - Twins
- Wil Myers - OF - Padres
- Eloy Jimenez - OF - White Sox
- Trevor Story - SS - Rockies
- Mike Moustakas - 2B - Reds
- Hunter Dozier - 1B - Royals
- Willson Contreras - C - Cubs
- Nolan Arenado - 3B - Rockies
- Padres/Mariners OVER (8)
- Royals/Cardinals OVER (9)
- Braves ML (+156)
- Reds ML (-104)