JONES VS GUSTAFSSON 2
MMA DFS & Betting Program
We are back! We had a week off, but it seemed like forever! A couple weeks ago, we destroyed it, going 10-2 overall, and cashed several dogs including the +295 Iaquinta main event winner, Barboza +110, Silva +110, and Rodriguez +115. We also nailed some props and I ended up putting in a 2 and 3 play round robin for the 12 suggested plays and cleared upper four figures. So lets keep it rolling!
We have on deck the final card of 2018 with UFC 232, and two title fights, headlined by Jon Jones (22-1) taking on Alexander Gustafsson (18-4) for the vacant light heavyweight title. Co-headlining we have Cris Cyborg (20-1) putting her women’s featherweight belt on the line against 135 lb champ Amanda Nunes, who will look to become a two division champ if she can pull off the victory Saturday night. Rounding out the night, we have 11 additional fights, some talk about pictograms, and probably a solid post fight press conference with some tough questions for the boss Dana White once the fights are over. But before we get to that point, lets win some money.
So, for the 13 match ups, here’s the lineup! First fight goes off at 4:15 MST.
Some quick DFS reminders:
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 232. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
UFC 232: Gustafsson vs Jones
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday night.
PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:
Alexander Gustafsson +250 $7100 vs Jon Jones -275 $9100
Prediction: Some shady stuff going on ladies and gents. Fact of the matter is that Jon Jones tested positive multiple times over the last couple months and for some reason ($) we are still getting this fight Saturday night. I get it, that it is highly possible that we have some left over pictograms, skittles, or whatever from the testing 15 months ago. But, it’s still a positive test. Kudos to the UFC fighters for making the move to Cali, and hell, the UFC for putting forth about a 6 million dollar added expense to make this happen. Lets get to the main event itself. Jon Jones vs Alexander Gustafsson for the vacant light heavyweight title. (Quick shout out to DC for relinquishing the belt)
In their first fight, it was probably the best title fight we’ve seen in the division, most of which because Gus almost pulled it off. Jones had never been beaten, or even tested much till that fight. He was hurt, and really when they read the cards, we still weren’t 100% sure who was going to take the match. Both fighters landed over 100 significant strikes, with Gus having more output every round, while Jones landed more in comparison. One thing that stuck out to me was the fact that Jones was quoted saying regarding their first fight, “I trained for the fight, but I definitely had this thing where I felt invincible. I did a lot of wild stuff leading up to the fight. I definitely didn’t give it my all. Really partying, drinking, staying up all night.”
It’s sad to see a guy like this with so much talent take it for granted. Now he deserves the bad rap he gets and at times embraces it, but I’ve come to the realization that this is him and it’s not going to change. The drama around this week’s testing results is minimal for me, and although technically the fight should not be happening, I truly do not see it giving Jones an edge. What I do believe we will see though, is a Jon Jones looking to go out there angry and looking to hurt Gus, and make a statement, more than we’ve seen before in previous fights. I would not be surprised at all if we see this fight not make the final bell. I really do not believe we see a fight like we did the first go, and Jones could end this early and/or decisively.
Amanda Nunes +205 $7000 vs Cyborg Santos -225 $9200
Prediction: Awesome fight as the 135 and 145 lb champs come together to see who the current women’s P4P really is. Cyborg welcomes Nunes to the 145lb division and will defend her featherweight strap yet again, in a highly anticipated match that’s been a long time coming. In my opinion, Nunes will have her moments early on, and landing on Cyborg will cause a stir from the crowd. This could give her some confidence for a period of time, but Cyborg’s size and technical offense will eventually take over. Nunes has eliminated our gas tank concerns as of late, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we see them shine through again Saturday night. Cyborg should wear her down, turn the tide, and take over the fight across the five rounds, unless she lands early and hurts her. I just cant see Nunes doing enough to take this one, but many are giving her a legit chance. To me, she looked beat already at the weigh ins, and Cyborg looked ready to cement herself as the top female fighter in the UFC. Can Nunes shock the world and hand Cyborg her first lost after winning 20 consecutive? Cyborg via cardio, size, and boxing for me. Cyborg should hit value in DFS with five rounds to work.
Carlos Condit +135 $7200 vs Michael Chiesa -145 $9000
Prediction: Chiesa moving up to 170 for this one after getting worked over in his last two down a division. It’s tough to pull the trigger on Condit, as he’s lost his last four and has gone 3-7 in his last 10. Condit just hasn’t been able to pull the trigger lately. Condit has had lackluster takedown defense and Chiesa always goes right for it. I expect to see Chiesa go on autopilot and look to close quickly and sink something in as quick as he can. Let’s be real, Condit has been taken down seamlessly 10 times in his last three fights, all of which he lost. Even though this is a true 170 vs 155 fight, I believe Chiesa has the strength to get this down at some point. Condit looked very motivated at the weigh ins. I wonder how much Chiesa being such a Condit fan back in the day will mess with him mentally, as he stares at the Natural Born Killer across from him in the Octagon. I like the value on Condit and will pick him just on that, and will bet fight doesn’t go decision.
Corey Anderson +125 $7300 vs Ilir Latifi -135 $8900
Prediction: This good enough?
In all seriousness, Anderson looked great against Teixeira in his last fight, landing takedowns at will on his way to a unanimous decision victory. Latifi will be tough to takedown and he brings a 100% takedown defense which should pose some issues for Anderson a tad, and Latifi’s power shots could bring Anderson back down to earth a tad. I like Latifi to land less, but the more significant shots of the two, which will be the difference maker.
Alex Volkanovski +155 $7500 vs Chad Mendes -140 $8700
Prediction: I’m a big proponent that the skilled fighters with the wrestling base typically should have the edge and usually win. Fact check me if you want, but keep that on the DL. It’s true. That would be all Mendes here. I don’t hate anyone for taking Mendes in this fight. DFS wise, Volkanovski and his striking and overwhelming offense (6.09 SLpM) is worth a look at the dog price. He could rip off a win, as long as Mendes doesn’t land that one hitter quitter shot like he did against Jury, or wrestle him to negate the output. I’m going to take a shot on the dog because you know how I do. I always gotta take a few.
Andrei Arlovski +155 $7600 vs Walt Harris -175 $8600
Prediction: Two things are most likely here. Harris curls Arlovski’s toes, or Arlovski falls on top of Harris and lays there while we watch Harris struggle to get back to the feet. I’ll take the younger guy with the straighter nose. Speaking of, as a southpaw, Harris could possibly cause even more damage to it, which wouldn’t be ideal.
Cat Zingano -145 $8500 vs Megan Anderson +135 $7700
Prediction: Game plan should be fairly obvious here. Cat will look to close the distance asap and get this one to the mat. She does this, she should be able to GnP and win some rounds. Megan will have the size, but Cat is a scrapper. I was at her last fight against Marion Reneau and she looked outstanding. Reneau to me is a tougher opponent the Anderson, but we will see if the size contributes at all and humbles my Zingano pick on Saturday night.
Douglas Silva De Andrade +265 $6900 vs Petr Yan -295 $9300
Prediction: Both dudes are violent. Excellent records as Yan is 10-1 and Silva is 25-2. Silva has some serious speed and pop and can stand with Yan here. Difference maker should be the countering and defense Yan brings, along with his not stop output. The line is right and Yan should take it. Yan was heavily touted in his last fight against Jin Soo Son and I thought it ended up closer than many expected. Silva will be a tougher test and although Yan should be able to win more minutes, Silva is definitely of value to me at an almost 3:1 dog.
B.J. Penn +380 $6800 vs Ryan Hall -430 $9400
Prediction: Not a fan of this one. Huge B.J. Penn fan and I’m just not sure what he has left to prove. Penn hasn’t won a fight since 2010. Only upside (and I’m reaching here) is that this one is at 155, and Ryan Hall isn’t much of a killer. Hall is 2-0 in the UFC and in both fights won via unanimous decision, leveraging his nerdy analytical approach to winning the rounds. Hey, it’s worked I guess. Hall is an amazing grappler and I’d hate to see even B.J. Penn challenge him on the ground. At the weigh ins we see a Penn that is just happy to be there, and not the killer he once was. Hall most likely via decision for me.
Andre Ewell +110 $8000 vs Nathaniel Wood -120 $8200
Prediction: Should be a very close fight. Both coming off of possibly the biggest wins in their careers. Winner will get a decent jump in competition. Ewell, if standing, should be able to jab away and pick apart Wood, just as he did against Barao, but I see Wood looking to brawl and if things aren’t going his way standing, taking it to the mat, where he could quite possibly sink something in. Close fight, but I give the edge to Wood.
Bevon Lewis -120 $7900 vs Uriah Hall +110 $8300
Prediction: The line has flipped with this match up. Hall opened as a -135 favorite, and has been dropped to +110. Lewis is 6-0 and has been talked about quite a bit as a serious prospect from the Jackson-Wink team. Hall is super athletic and already has a handful of highlights in his career in the UFC, but dropped off somewhat quickly. Hall always has that chance to land a finishing shot, but if we look at his recent work, he’s gone 1-4 in his last five, and has been TKO’d in his last three losses. Lewis will need to avoid the early shot, and be the one to land the power shot first, and I like his chances to possibly do just that. I see him as the more motivated fighter in there, and if he gets Hall in danger, he won’t let up. Lewis has been training with some big names, and put on a show in front of Dana to earn his contract by way of the Tuesday Night Contender Series. I don’t see the lights too bright for him Saturday night. I really like what I see from his mental maturity already. If this line keeps moving down on Hall though, I see some betting value with him as a dog but I’d need more than +110.
Curtis Millender -140 $8800 vs Siyar Bahadurzada +130 $7400
Prediction: Two powerful guys that can definitely sleep their opponents, whom both have never been KO’d themselves. Siyar is coming in part of the Jackson-Wink crew with the likes of Jon Jones, Carlos Condit, and Bevon Lewis who are all on this card. He’s looked solid in his last three fights, finishing all three of his opponents, and the last two via KO/TKO. Millender will be the faster fighter, and could frustrate Siyar on the feet if he can keep him at range. Siyar will either need to close the distance and land some inside shots, or expose that 57% takedown defense and control Millender on the ground. Siyar hasn’t been outlanded by his opponent since 2013. Now that sounds like forever ago, but in that timespan, he’s only fought four times. I still though like the chances of Siyar to hang around and make this a match. It’s possible that Millender gets a little too flashy in there and gets tagged by one of Siyar’s power shots at some point because well, all of Siyar’s shots have power.
Brian Kelleher +150 $7800 vs Montel Jackson -160 $8400
Prediction: Jackson came in at 137 lbs and missed weight by a pound, equivalent to 453,592,370,000,000 picograms. This fight is a rebooking so both have been preparing for the match up for some time. Jackson will have about a four-inch height advantage and a freakish 75 in reach, which will be nine inches on Kelleher. Jackson will be a composed striker with a speed advantage, but will absolutely have to watch for the takedowns. In his last match, he got taken down at will by Simon, which eventually landed him a loss via decision. Kelleher himself has landed at least one takedown in each of his last four fights, although going 2-2 along that stretch, most recently getting KO/TKO’d by Lineker. Kelleher won’t be able to take Jackson down as Simon did, and couple that with the high likely that Jackson has been working on the defense, I’m siding with Jackson to score more on the feet on his way to the win. Kelleher has been known to get hit as well, and statistically he absorbs almost 6 significant shots a minute, compared to Jackson at 1.69.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS: Cyborg, Jones
SCRUBS: B Lewis, Volkanovski, Bahadurzada
Jones via ITD +118
Jones/Gustafsson U4.5 -112
Condit/Chiesa doesn’t go to decision -135
Zingano via DEC +155
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