UFC 240: Holloway vs Edgar
Holloway vs Edgar
MMA DFS & Betting Program
Eight fight cards in less than 2 months? Six weeks in a row? You know it! We are back for UFC 240, headlined by champ Max Holloway vs challenger Frankie Edgar for the 145 LB strap. Building up to that fight, we will have 10 bouts, several of which have solid odds of finishing inside the distance, compared to last week’s decision fest. Speaking of last week, we did well with the UFC bets, picking off +120 Pennington, -105 Hardy, and -135 Edwards in the main event.
Let’s dive into Saturday’s card.
Some quick DFS reminders:
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC 240. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
Here’s the historical significant strikes ratio for each fight where we consider landed versus absorbed comparisons. Take a gander.
WIN PROBABILITY PRIOR TO WEIGH-INS:
QUICK PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:
(Will keep it short, but hit me up if you want to chat more)
Holloway vs Edgar
As I said on the Twitter machine, Edgar’s highlight package this week is pumpin’ out highlights from like 10 years ago. Edgar’s one of the best ever but this is probably his last crack at gold here, and it ain’t looking good. Can he hang around and snag a round or two? Yes. But Max should definitely be able to take 3-4 rounds if this goes late. His reach and size, along with the output should be enough to snag the W and defend the belt. Give Volkanovski the winner regardless. He should be the one we are watching this weekend. As far as DFS, I don’t hate the stack in one of your lineups, and I like the over betting wise. Holloway probably plays it a little safe after the Diamond fight.
Cyborg vs Spencer
Hard to think that Cyborg doesn’t catch Spencer. She got pieced up a little against Megan before getting the sub. Imagine what Cyborg will do. Cyborg by finish has the highest probability inside the distance on the card. If she (Cyborg) loses this, it’s gonna be the story this weekend. Last fight on Cyborg’s contract. I like her in DFS even at the price. I’m banking on RD 1.
REST OF CARD:
Neal vs Price
Price is a stud and he’s been a sexy pick all week for MMA twitter it seems. Even though Niko has that crazy one punch KO power, he just gets hit too much for me. Neal gonna catch him.
Aubin-Mercier vs Tsarukyan
I love the fact that OAM commissioned a MMA capper to do some research on Tsarukyan. Unfortunately, Tsarukyan can wrestle, which has been OAM’s kryptonite. Very very tough to pick against OAM at home. Only way he wins is with some sketchy cards, which is actually possible. Tsarukyan will be game.
Jotko vs Barriault
Jotko is faster, and has better movement than Andrew Sanchez, whom Barriault debuted against and lost. Jotko also looked great this week. Although his chin is suspect, I’m gonna ride with him one more time here. If you roster multiple, sneak Barriault into at least one. He has that punchers chance, but definitely a step up for him if we are being real.
Davis vs Araujo
Araujo should be able to punish Davis, but you know she’ll hang around and take some damage. Davis could make this ugly, but with the shots she takes (and typically opens up) Araujo may be worth a roster in DFS. High output decision/finish opportunity.
Dawodu vs Horie
Dawodu the Canadian, fighting at home here, facing the debuting Yoshinori Horie who’s never fought outside of Japan. I’ve like Dawodu since this match was announced, and even more after the weigh in stare down.
Tucker vs Choi
Tucker tried to stare down Choi at the weigh ins, but he wasn’t having it. Tucker isn’t bad at all, but Choi will be the fighter that will keep coming forward or looking to land that last shot in every round when we hear the 10 second warning. Choi is a tough dude and Tucker has been gone for a couple years, after suffering a four broken bones in his face against Rick Glenn. I wonder if that plays part in the his mental game coming into a tough scrap against a guy that will trade all day.
Pantoja vs Figueiredo
This should be an fireworks fight. Looking forward to it. We could see some back and forth with both guys getting their shine, but I like Pantoja. His stand up is very accurate and will have the clear technical advantage. Most likely Pantoja via DEC.
Robertson vs Frota
Robertson getting a shot at home against a pretty tough Sarah Frota making the trek from Brazil. Frota ain’t horrible on the feet and has some power. Robertson will have to watch for the big shots, and she will. Watch for her to take Frota down (and she will) and look to lock something in. Will be tough to sub the black belt but you never know. We have a rare O/U 1.5 for a chick fight here. I like Frota but gotta select Robertson as my winner at home either by finish or home town’ish type decision.
Stewart vs Koch
Koch hasn’t won in three years, but he also hasn’t been that active. Stewart will look to brawl and I’d suspect Koch actually hang around and eventually look to get it down to the mat. I suspect Stewart to actually be the stronger guy, but Koch could lock something in. I’m not sold on Stewart quite yet, even though vegas is, as he opened -155. Over and goes to the decision still as favorites and two guys that don’t have high end output. Probably a fade for DFS.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS: Cyborg, Holloway, Dawodu, Neal, Araujo
SCRUBS: Choi, Pantoja, Edgar, hail mary’s Frota, Barriault, Davis
Holloway/Edgar O3.5 -127
Cyborg RD 1 -115
Dawodu via TKO/KO +125
A year ago, I signed with Scout/FullTime and committed to throwing out some data for every UFC card on the books for a full year. This weekend, we’ve made the lap. It’s been awesome and the MMA squad we have here I consider fam! What a killer DFS/betting platform we have out there for MMA. Let’s see what the future brings for us! Let us know what you’d like to see.
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