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#UFCVegas12 MMA Betting Preview
Although he has two fights left on his contract, Anderson Silva will be making his final walk to the Octagon Saturday night as the UFC returns from Fight Island and heads back to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva.
Considered by many as the greatest of all time, Anderson Silva will be taking on the always dangerous #10 Uriah Hall, who looks to keep his winning streak alive, with hopes to take one step closer to title contention. Before we get to the main event, we will have a stack of prospects looking to impress as they continue running up the ranks. Expect some fireworks this Halloween, live and available on ESPN+, with things kicking off at 4 p.m. ET for the prelims, followed by the main card at 7 p.m. ET.
UFC Fight Night Details
- DATE: SATURDAY 10/31/2020
- BROADCAST: ESPN+
- VENUE: UFC APEX
- LOCATION: Las Vegas, Nevada
- # of MATCHES: 12
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS
#10 URIAH HALL 15-9 VS ANDERSON SILVA 34-10
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS
ANDRE FILI 21-7 VS #15 BRYCE MITCHELL 13-0
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS
KEVIN HOLLAND 19-5 VS CHARLIE ONTIVEROS 11-6
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS
MAURICE GREENE 9-4 VS GREG HARDY 6-2
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS
BOBBY GREEN 27-10-1 VS THIAGO MOISES 13-4
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS
CHRIS GRUETZEMACHER 14-3 VS ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ 11-3
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS
ADRIAN YANEZ 11-3 VS VICTOR RODRIGUEZ 7-2
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS
SEAN STRICKLAND 20-3 VS JACK MARSHMAN 23-9
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS
COLE WILLIAMS 11-2 VS JASON WITT 17-6
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS
DUSTIN JACOBY 12-5 VS JUSTIN LEDET 9-3
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS
CORTNEY CASEY 9-8 VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA 9-3
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS
MILES JOHNS 10-1 VS KEVIN NATIVIDAD 9-1
MAIN EVENT PREDICTION
#10 URIAH HALL 15-9 VS ANDERSON SILVA 34-10
Barring a curveball of some sort, Anderson Silva is making his final UFC walk to the octagon on Saturday night, just a week after Khabib Nurmagomedov did himself, after going out on top as the #1 P4P fighter in the world. I bring this up because Anderson Silva could have done just the same, after TKOing Stephan Bonnar in one round back in 2012, in a fight that made it 17 straight wins and 10 title defenses with a few light heavyweight superfights sprinkled in. Silva instead kept fighting and has gone on to compile a record of 1-6. The one win was really a gift, where somehow judges awarded Silva a decision against Derek Brunson in a fight many had 30-27 the other way. Silva is now 45 years of age, well past his prime, and has nothing else to prove.
Simply put, he’s a lock on the Mt. Rushmore of MMA. Silva has changed his tune as of late, and after claiming this was his retirement fight, he’s now stating it's his last in the UFC, but not MMA. With two fights left on his UFC contract, it's all a mystery how the end of his career will eventually go down. One thing is for sure; the UFC didn’t do the legend any favors. A dangerous striker, tenth-ranked Uriah Hall will stand across looking to continue his winning streak, setting up a shot against Israel Adesanya down the road. Both Hall and Adesanya have chirped back and forth a bit, and Silva motivated to make one final statement in the UFC, a lot is at stake in the night’s main event.
Silva is one of the most calculated strikers in history. He typically logs his opponents tells and stays very patient out of the shoots, then kicks things into gear switching from counters to being first with every exchange moving forward. Even at this age, he still has some decent movement, though ever since his freak accident against Weidman, he’s had issues taking leg kicks. Most recently, he lost via TKO after taking a kick from Jared Cannonier that landed right on the knee, quickly dropping the legend. His overall fighting stance has never changed, and his leg is usually sitting there for the taking. With the recent damage he's taken against Adesanya and Cannonier, the manual has been written for Hall to take this one. I can’t trust Silva's side even at plus money in this fight.
Hall at over -225 just seems high, and a pass for me as well. To me, and it pains me to say, he has one of the most inconsistent fighter mentalities I’ve seen at this level. He either doesn’t want to be in there or has that killer instinct, looking to finish and in devastating fashion. This is undoubtedly the biggest fight in his career, and he talked himself into a spot where he must make a statement of sorts now. Israel Adesanya has responded to Hall's latest statements claiming the champ is cherry-picking easy fights. Hall has a chance to respond in a big way with a win inside the distance, as Hall could stake a claim that he finished Silva while Adesanya couldn’t.
Both Hall and Silva are outstanding strikers, and while Silva doesn’t have the ability he once had to dodge incoming shots, Hall, on the flip side, doesn't have the best chin. If either fighter catches each other flush, this one is all but over.
So let's air out some thoughts. Silva is 45; he’s 0-7 in his last stretch of fights if you consider what truly happened against Brunson, where he was gifted the win. As mentioned, Hall is one of the most inconsistent fighters from a mentality standpoint. Although we have to wait and see what version of Hall we get, I believe the no crowd will work in his favor. Like less pressure in a sense. Five of Hall’s last six wins have come by KO, and only one of Hall’s last six fights have gone over 3.5 rounds. Silva shouldn’t be fighting, in my opinion, and if he gets in danger, you'd have to think the ref will step in sooner than we typically see, saving the legend from taking unnecessary damage. Silva will take damage in this fight. If you look across his career, only as of late is he now absorbing more strikes than he is landing. Statistically, this has occurred in seven of his last eight fights. It's not a good look heading into this fight, but Hall’s inconsistent track record isn’t either. Yes, he has fight-changing power, but that comes with that suspect chin we discussed. Four of his last five losses are via TKO/KO.
So who wins?
We get a stand-up war on Saturday night to close out the card, and I don’t expect this one to drag out. Yes, Silva has gone to a decision in four of his last five fights, but only two of those were inside of the last four years, and one of the two was the dance-off between him and Adesanya. Couple that with only one of Hall's last six fights lasting into the over rounds, and in all of this, we are talking about three-round fights.
MAIN CARD WAGERS
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: #10 URIAH HALL 15-9 VS ANDERSON SILVA 34-10
- This will be Silva’s last fight with the UFC.
- Silva is 1-6 since 2012, with his one win being a very controversial decision over Derek Brunson, where many had Brunson winning 30-27.
- Win or lose, seven of Hall's last nine fights have ended via TKO/KO.
- Silva went to the decision in five fights straight before being TKOd in his last fight against Jared Cannonier in just one round.
- Silva has been outstruck in seven of his last eight fights.
FEATHERWEIGHT BOUT 145LBS: ANDRE FILI 21-7 VS #15 BRYCE MITCHELL 13-0
- Fili is durable and has gone to a decision in eight of his last nine fights.
- Mitchell has no KO finishes but nine wins by submission, with eight of those in the first round.
- Although busier on the feet, Fili absorbs as many strikes as he lands on average.
- Though accurate, Mitchell has a very low volume on the feet.
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: KEVIN HOLLAND 19-5 VS CHARLIE ONTIVEROS 11-6
- Ontiveros is making his UFC debut and his 185lb debut on just three days' notice.
- Holland will have a 5.5-inch reach advantage.
- Ontiveros has six losses, and all are by KO.
HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 265LBS: MAURICE GREENE 9-4 VS GREG HARDY 6-2
- Hardy has yet to be finished in his MMA career.
- Statistically, Hardy has the advantage in all striking metrics.
- 56% of Greene's wins are via submission.
- 83% of Hardy’s wins are via TKO/KO. (5/6)
- Greene was dropped and almost finished in his last fight vs. Gian Villante, who was moving up to heavyweight. Before that, Greene was finished in two straight fights.
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: BOBBY GREEN 27-10-1 VS THIAGO MOISES 13-4
- While Moises has never been finished in 17 fights, Green has gone to a decision in his last eight fights.
- Green has a significant advantage in all striking statistics.
- Moises is nine years younger than Green.
- Moises is just 2-2 in the UFC.
- Moises recently had Covid.
LIGHTWEIGHT BOUT 155LBS: CHRIS GRUETZEMACHER 14-3 VS ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ 11-3
- Gruetzemacher has been out of action for about 2.5 years.
- Hernandez moved camps after his last fight and now is at Factory X with Marc Montoya.
- In 17 fights, all three losses Gruetzemacher has are via submission.
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: ADRIAN YANEZ 11-3 VS VICTOR RODRIGUEZ 7-2
- This will be the UFC debut for both fighters on Saturday.
- Rodriguez, at 7-2, has never been to a decision.
- Yanez has KOd his opponent in four of his last five victories.
- Yanez has never been finished.
MIDDLEWEIGHT BOUT 185LBS: SEAN STRICKLAND 20-3 VS JACK MARSHMAN 23-9
- Strickland has never lost at this weight. (9-0)
- Marshman is 1-5 outside the UK and 0-2 in the US.
- Strickland has been out of action for over two years due to a motorcycle accident. A car turned out in front of him as he was going 45 miles per hour. He was unconscious for three hours and had knee surgery.
- Strickland’s last fight was an impressive TKO of Nordine Taleb.
- Marshman has just a 20% takedown defense.
- For all four of Marshman's losses, he was taken down in the fight.
WELTERWEIGHT BOUT 170LBS: COLE WILLIAMS 11-2 VS JASON WITT 17-6
- Witt is back after losing his UFC debut on just two days' notice. He is a favorite coming into this fight with full preparation.
- Williams hasn’t fought in about 15 months since his last fight, where he lost via submission in the first round to Claudio Silva.
- Four of William's last five wins have been via TKO/KO finish in the 1st round.
- Both fighters will be looking for their first UFC victory after both losing their debut.
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT BOUT 205LBS: DUSTIN JACOBY 12-5 VS JUSTIN LEDET 9-3
- Ledet, with his back against the wall, has lost three straight.
- Ledet has gone to a decision in three of his last four fights. The other was a 15 second KO loss to Johnny Walker.
- Jacoby will be making his second run in the UFC after going 0-2 in 2011/2012.
WOMEN’S FLYWEIGHT BOUT 125LBS: CORTNEY CASEY 9-8 VS PRISCILA CACHOEIRA 9-3
- This will be Cachoeira’s first fight in the US.
- Cachoeira is 1-3 in the UFC, dropping three straight, then rebounding last February with a KO win vs. Shana Dobson.
- Casey has the advantage in all striking and grappling stats except TD defense.
- Neither fighter has ever been KOd.
- Casey has gone into the third round in seven of her last eight fights. Her one fight that didn’t was a submission win in the first round against Mara Romero Borella last May.
BANTAMWEIGHT BOUT 135LBS: MILES JOHNS 10-1 VS KEVIN NATIVIDAD 9-1
- Natividad will be making his UFC debut.
- Natividad is riding a five-fight win streak, with three coming by way of TKO/KO.
- Johns has gone to a decision in five of his last six wins.
UFC PREDICTION BET SUMMARY
- Fight card predictions overall: 330-169-10 (66%)
- Targeted matchups (wagers): 166-66-5 (72%)
Be sure to check out DraftKings Sportsbook options as well, on top of the daily fantasy tournaments available for Saturday. The sportsbook has lines up and available for fight lines, method of victory, and round betting!
UFC Fight Night DFS Plays & Strategies
- Choose active fighters. Coupling an active fighter on his/her way to a unanimous decision will give you key points for your team. Just like any other DFS traditional sport, you want the active, offensive player that scores. Key metrics here are SLpM and TD AVG/15min.
- Play the heavyweights. The approximate overall finish rate in the UFC is 54%. Most weight divisions range from 40%-60%, while the heavyweights push a 75% finish rate. You will receive bonus points for finishes inside the distance.
- Try always to include the main event or title fights. Five round fights mean more time to rack up points if you pick the right fighter. In some cases, even if you have the loser, the points can be more than a three-round winner.
- Don’t get excited and rush a pick based on stats; consider sample size. Some fighters have limited fights compared to their opponents when looking at metrics. Stats could be exaggerated. Do your research. Watch for spots with debuting fighters as well. Always check the records of the opponents they faced on their way to the UFC. Always pull fight tape as well. You’d be surprised at what you will find.
- Review methods of victory. I supply the finish rates within this article, and as you dive in even more, you can compare method of victory to method of loss for the matchups. For example, you can find matchups where Fighter A has a high percentage of submission victories matched up with Fighter B, with a high number of submission losses.
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC FIGHT NIGHT. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are in MMA DFS. Take a glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents; watch your points rack up quickly. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
UFC Fight Night DFS Recommendations
- Fighters that typically press the action, land takedowns, and/or high finish rates matched up against those that get finished, roster. (see my charts above)
- Fights projected to NOT go to a decision
- Holland/Ontiveros (no number yet, but should be highest on this list)
- Hardy/Greene -270
- Yanez/Rodriguez -250
- Jacoby/Ledet -145
- Hall/Silva -140
- Strickland/Marshman -115
Good luck everyone! I hope to see some of you cashin' after Saturday night! Thanks for all the amazing comments, and I appreciate the follows. If you haven’t done so already, jump on Twitter and find me at @Y2CASEY. Stay cashin’.