UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare vs Hermansson
UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare vs Hermansson
MMA DFS& Betting Program
It’s good to be back from Disneyland! I’m ready to roll and I hope you are as well, because we have a solid card on deck! First, shout outs to JMondeci77 for putting up his thoughts on last week’s card for the crew while I was probably riding the tea cups with my wife and three-year old. Now onto this week. I love it when we have a card with a group of guys that will look to stand and bang it out. We have several fights where these guys will NOT be looking to score points, just to edge out some score cards. Rather, we have six fighters that have odds to finish inside the distance, and some others matched up that will be looking to do the same at any cost. We have a couple “don’t blink” fights, hands of stone, Jacarelookin’ for that title shot, Greg Hardy is back for another chance, and I am freakin’ pumped for Perry vs Oliveira and you probably are too, solet’s cash some winners!
Speaking of winners…
Anyone who tweets and promotes the write up and tags me, I’ll random off some signed MMA swag.
13 matches this weekend:
Some quick DFS reminders:
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC on ESPN+ 8. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
UFC on ESPN+ 8: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday night.
UFC on ESPN+ 8: Win Probabilities based on odds.
(Implied probability of winning based on betting odds)
UFC on ESPN+ 8: Fight Finish Odds Probabilities
(Implied probability of TKO/SUB based on betting odds)
PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:
For the breakdowns:
- WINNER I’M PREDICTING IN BOLD
- PREDICTION: My opinion of what will go down, or what we may see on fight night.
- DFS: Input specific to DFS only.Things to consider when building your lineup(s).
- BETTING: Opinion on wager positions only.Not official plays unless noted at bottom of article, in Scout slack chat, text, Twitter, or email.
Jack Hermansson +180 $7300 vs Ronaldo Souza -220 $8900
Jacare has been promised a title fight with a win on Saturday night against Hermansson. Hermansson is rolling as of late and just disposed of David Branch last month in 49 seconds. He’s won three in a row to get to this spot and could shock the MMA world with a win against one of the best BJJ guys out there. Not sure how it happens though. Jacare was all business as the weigh ins and really all week. Jacare needs to stay defensive on the feet and not absorb too much. If he does so, he could actually win a stand up fight, but 100% should win on the mat if it gets there (even after the recent showings from Hermansson, subbing Branch and Meerschaert back to back). Jacare is risking a lot here. I can’t look past the fact that in his last six wins dating back to September of 2014, he’s finished them all, and against big names. Weidman, Brunson (boo), Boetsch, Belfort, Camozzi, and even Mousasi. He has three losses mixed in there, but I really believe he actually beat Romero and Gastelum, who both got split decision wins their way. I gotta go with Souza, but Hermansson could shock some folks.
Both guys are in play with the five rounds to work and both having actual legit chances to win. I like Souza myself and by sub. Very important to note with this one that the line is currently -735 that the fight DOESN’T go to the decision.
Dmitrii Smoliakov +285 $6900 vs Greg Hardy -345 $9300
What are we doing here? Hardy got DQ’d in his last “co-main” shot and here we are again, like we don’t remember what happened. The dude got nine lives? Now we set up a match with a guy that isn’t even in the UFC, and on top of that is Hardy’s old training partner? Weird stuff. I guess the script says Hardy by KO and some stories about the old Dallas Cowboy locking up a UFC win on ESPN later that night?
Hardy is the play. Would be amazing to see him lose again though after how much the UFC is pushing to get him a win. Smoliakov could ruin a lot of DFS players night Saturday if he goes rogue if you know what I mean.
REST OF CARD:
Alex Oliveira -170 $8800 vs Mike Perry +150 $7400
My favorite fight on this card right here. Both guys will be looking for the knockout, or so they say. Perry took this on four week’s notice and Friday stated it was the toughest weight cut he’s ever had. He’s ready though. Cowboy Oliveira is known for tapping fast when in sub trouble, but we won’t see that here. If anything, if/when he gets cracked, he will take Perry down and attempt to lock something in. He may just do that out of the gates and forget about the whole looking to KO him thing out the window. Perry’s way to victory will be KO, while Oliveira could hang on the feet, or do whatever he wants on the mat if it gets there. More ways to win in my opinion as long as he doesn’t quit! This will be fire.
Perry has value if he can get that KO. Worth a shot for the multi lineup players. Oliveira via sub is very possible as well. I do not see this one going to the final bell.
Glover Texeira -125 $7900 vs Ion Cutelaba +105 $8300
Although known for his standup, Glover probably doesn’t want to keep this one on the feet. Watch for him to take Cutelaba down and either mount or sink in a choke.
Although Cutelaba has some crazy power, Tex at $7900 is looking pretty nice. I like his chances to get this one to the mat.
Cory Sandhagen +125 $7700 vs John Lineker -145 $8500
I really think I’m going to do it here. I’m going to take Sandhagen. He’s gotta watch out for the incoming body shots, but you have to think he knows what Lineker’s gameplan is right? Sandhagen will have the much bigger size/reach advantage and will need to control the distance big time. Lineker can change a fight with one punch at any time. Sandhagen does weird stuff in there though and if anyone can lock up Lineker in something, it’s this guy.
Multi lineup players, probably want to take a shot at both. Remember Sandhagen weathered the storm against Alcantara, well not sure if he can here against Lineker if he gets cracked. Sandhagen does have a chance to steal this one though in my opinion.
Roosevelt Roberts -450 $9500 vs Thomas Gifford +360 $6700
Da fu*? Roosevelt Roberts with the gangster tats and Thomas Gifford looks like a WWF jobber. Their birth names just don’t match what I’m seeing here. Although Gifford has all his wins via finish, I just don’t see him securing another here. Huge step up for him even though Roberts is young in his UFC days as well. Roberts looked great against Darrell Horcher and I see him finishing this one however he wants.
Roosevelt if you have salary. I will be highly surprised if he doesn’t get a finish.
Ben Saunders +175 $7200 vs Takashi Sato -210 $9000
Yes, Saunders has that durability concern, but man he isn’t too shabby when he is on. He’s 1-4 in his last five and doesn’t have much of a chin left. Sato is a counter puncher and has some decent power. Sato isn’t afraid to go to the mat and usually does, but he hasn’t faced many with a ground game like Saunders. Sato is the right favorite based on recent history for both guys, but at this price, I like the value in taking a shot with Saunders. If Saunders was the favorite, I’d be taking Sato.
If you take Saunders, he will either destroy your lineup or take you to the top. I’d suggest if you build multiple, sneak him into at least one at $7200.
Andrei Arlovski +125 $7800 vs Augusto Sakai -145 $8400
Could be one of those boring heavyweight decisions. Sakai packs that 265lb power, but really didn’t impress me much against Chase Sherman. He struggled to get him out of there and it actually took him until the final minute of that match to TKO Sherman. Sakai was gassed himself. If Arlovski can avoid getting touched on the chin, he should be able to win with the better technical standup game, and experience.
I don’t trust Sakai and we haven’t seen him really hurt yet, just gassed.
Carla Esparza +105 $8200 vs Virna Jandiroba -125 $8000
I’ll be fading Esparza here. Jandiroba basically gave up the Invicta belt to get this shot in the UFC and it says something to match her up immediately against a former champ in Esparza. Jandiroba is 14-0, highly motivated, and could sneak a sub but it will be a long shot. Still a dog play for me.
Jandiroba or pass for me. I don’t see Esparza reaching value unless she secures a handful of takedowns. Could be dangerous to do so though in this spot with the sub game Jandiroba has.
Gilbert Burns -270 $9100 vs Mike Davis +230 $7100
Burns had a tough cut and was actually last to weigh in. Looked like a completely different fighter though at the ceremonial weigh ins later and got right up in Mike Davis’ face. Davis fought just a month ago and is coming in on a week’s notice, but with no travel. Will be a big step for him regardless.
I don’t hate the Burns play but there are others at this price point that could be better. Davis hung around with Sodiq Yusuff and eventually lost via decision, but the rest of his fights are KO/TKO victories (6) of course against lower tier fighters.
Jason Gonzalez +125 $7600 vs Jim Miller -145 $8600
Gonzalez looked amazing on the scale and will have size against the vet Miller. This could be it for Miller as he will be fighting in front of his kids for the first time in his career. (Might be the reason they are in attendance? Dunno) Anyhow, both guys are coming in after battling off injuries. Gonzales hasn’t fought since 2017, and Miller since late 2018. Not much of a layoff for Miller, but he hurt his shoulder in his last match against Oliveira five months ago, and he has disclosed that its still bothering him and he’s delayed surgery. He actually felt it again while catching a meatball that slipped from a spatula mid-delivery to his daughter’s plate. I have a suspicion that this one will end up on the mat, and Miller will find a spot where he will lock in something sneaky, and deliver a win in front of the fam, even with all the red flags we are getting this week.
Win or lose, Gonzales has never gone to a decision. This could be a fight to roster, just which guy is on the winning lineup. Fight is -245 that it doesn’t go to a decision. I side with the vet as noted above. One time for the kids!
Angela Hill -600 $9400 vs Jodie Esquibel +450 $6800
Hill will probably come out looking to really rebound in a big way, after getting murked by Randa Markos, losing via submission in round 1 about a month ago. Hill has already proven to be a very busy fighter, and currently has the most knockdown’s in straw weight history, and the 3rd most strikes in the division. I expect her to pour it on and roll to a decision win fairly easily.
I can’t pull the trigger on Hill. Only hit 95+ twice in nine DFS scored fights.
Court McGee -175 $8700 vs Dhiego Lima +155 $7500
Money has been coming in on Lima. Most recently, he shocked Chad Laprise (and a ton of bettors) with a round 1 KO in about a minute and a half. He comes in looking to string two UFC wins in a row for the first time in his career against a very durable Court McGee. McGee has only been KO’d once in his career, and that was via TKO against eventual title contender Santiago Ponzinibbio back in 2016. Since then, he’s gone 2-2 against bigger names than Lima, and all have gone to decision. In my opinion, he should have gone 3-1, but the judges gave Ben Saunders the edge in a fight where McGee was busier and actually took Saunders down in the 3rd. Overall, since the Ponz fight, McGee has been the busier fighter in all his matches with the exception when he faced Sean Strickland. As shown above on the output meter, McGee should be considerably busier than Lima on the feet Saturday night, and should also be able to take Lima down, exposing his 50% takedown defense. Lima is typically a slow starter, and will really look to land a power shot versus being the more active guy. That’s where Laprise failed, as he got clipped and slept. I don’t see McGee making the same mistake and he should be able to take at least two rounds on his way to a decision.
Not sure if we see McGee hit value, unless he can sneak a finish. This could be a very contrarian roster, as Lima has been known to get hurt and fold (5 of 7 losses he’s been finished). Consider before utilizing this match in DFS, that odds makers have this fight as a 3 to 1 favorite to reach the final bell, which doesn’t favor rostering either guy really to hit value. McGee has only surpassed 90 points twice, and Lima either scores 100 or like 5.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS: Souza, Hardy, Roberts
SCRUBS: Teixeira, Perry, Sandhagen, Saunders
Souza via SUB +134
Roberts via ITD -180
Anyone who tweets and promotes the write up and tags me, I’ll random off some signed MMA swag.
More in the Slack Chat!
Enjoy the fights! I’ll catch you in the chat!