UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs Lee
UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs Lee
MMA DFS & Betting Program
Some quick DFS reminders:
As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC on ESPN+ 10. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual match-ups below.
UFC on ESPN+ 10: Dos Anjos vs Lee
Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.
We’ve had some significant line moves this week. Below is the change in odds from open to post weigh ins Friday morning, in comparison to DK pricing released.
PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS:
Kevin Lee -105 $8000 vs Rafael Dos Anjos -115 $8200
Looking forward to this one. Lee coming up in weight and I think it should benefit him. RDA has struggled against guys that can wrestle, and Lee should be able to take him down eventually. As long as Lee sticks to gameplan, and exposes the lack of TD defense that RDA brings (58%) this one should look similar to the Barboza/Lee fight a year ago. I’ll side with the dog and Kevin Lee getting back on track.
Lee either via Decision of finish for me. Yes, he is coming up in weight, but like Poirier and others, I’m thinking it’s a good move here. Not sure how he fairs against the rest of the killers in the division, but he should be ok here. At 8K, and five rounds, if he is able to maintain control where the fight goes the majority of the time, I like it.
Vicente Luque -1000 $9400 vs Derrick Krantz +650 $6500
Congrats to Derrick Krantz on his UFC contract signing, but sorry it has to be this way.
If Luque doesn’t finish him, he has some talking to do.
REST OF CARD:
Antonio Carlos Junior -185 $8700 vs Ian Heinisch +160 $7500
Interesting fight. I can see where opinions could go either way. I’ve even been torn on this one. End of the day, Heinisch was impressive in his debut against Ferreira, and if Daniel Kelly can land and TKO shoeface, Heinisch could as well. He’s a durable guy, and scrappy enough to turn the momentum his way unlike some past opponents were able to do against ACJ. As long as he keeps him off his back, he can win this one. Another dog spot for me.
Tough one DFS wise. I like both at this price, but like the dog more. If this goes deep, I think Heinisch does enough to win. I also think he can tag ACJ and finish him too. It’s Junior’s fight though if he can lock something in, which would crush some lineups if you side with the dog. In DFS though you have to find some sub $8K spots and I like this one.
Megan Anderson -165 $8500 vs Felicia Spencer +145 $7700
Striker vs grappler. Megan will look to utilize her range while Spencer will look to close without taking too much damage and wrestle in the clinch. Zingano didn’t have a chance to do that in the last match as she caught that toenail across the eye. Sounds like Spencer has been prepping for the disadvantage with the reach, so take as she is quoted, “six inches doesn’t impress me much.” I’m always looking for a dog spot or two, so I will take one here. I’m hoping to see Spencer get some takedowns and frustrate Anderson. Every round starts on the feet but this chick is relentless at closing and staying on her gameplan.
Fight is Anderson’s to win, but value on Spencer at $7700. She’s 6-0, and a decent test in the flyweight division, even while making her debut.
Charles Oliveira -365 $9300 vs Nik Lentz +305 $6900
Trilogy match! In 2011, they went to NC after an illegal knee by Oliveira. In 2015, Oliveira submitted Lentz via choke in 3. Now here we are for a third matchup. Oliveira has looked great as of late, stringing four in a row against some decent names. He is the most dangerous submission fighter in the UFC in my opinion and can always sneak a choke. Lentz is a tough dude, but tough spot here.
When looking at the top tier pricing, Oliveira isn’t a bad spot in the group. Even if it goes to the over rounds, he has enough output to hit value even with a late finish.
Davi Ramos -445 $9200 vs Austin Hubbard +355 $7000
What are we doing her? Hubbard isn’t even the best lightweight out of Iowa. Ramos always is looking for the kill, while Hubbard is a volume guy, with less mustard. Ramos via finish either in one or two.
At this price, gotta bank on Ramos finishing in one round, and I think he has a shot to pull it off. Might be a popular play.
Aspen Ladd -290 $9100 vs Sijara Eubanks +245 $7100
Rematch for these two. First match went to Ladd, as she cruised to a unanimous decision win in Invicta back in 2017. Ladd has looked even better since, TKO’ing both Lansberg and Evinger back to back in the UFC. Eubanks herself and won two in a row, but I see Ladd outstriking her with slightly more output when comparing the two. Eubanks coming up in weight after having some struggles at fly making weight. Ladd looked great on the scale and ready to go. Going with the younger, busier fighter.
Aspen Ladd most likely by decision. She could be a popular pick after what we saw against Evinger in her last fight, but we gotta remember its not always “what have you done for me lately.” Yes, Eubanks could rip off a win, but highly doubtful, and even if she does, I don’t see her scoring high enough to make it worth a spot on the roster.
Desmond Green -550 $9500 vs Charles Jourdain +425 $6700
Jourdain is small for a lightweight in my opinion, and that may come into play against Green. Green should cruise and send Jourdain down to 45.
Although Green and his experience and size should cruise, I’m not sure on the price. “Air” Jourdain will probably throw some spinning shit, but Green should be dominant. Jourdain has never been finished and Green rarely does himself.
Danny Roberts -245 $8900 vs Michel Pereira +205 $7300
Watch Pereira go for some weird stuff in there. Should be fun. With that said though, Hot chocolate avoids getting touched on the chin and will technically win the fight on the feet and quite possibly finish Pereira
Roberts is a gamble, but one I may be willing to take.
Mike Trizano -140 $8300 vs Grant Dawson +120 $7900
Beer bet in the slack that Dawson lands at least one takedown. Should be a pretty close fight, but Dawson will most likely look to take it down to the mat to avoid getting hurt. I like him and the value in the dog spot, and this fight will most likely head to a decision. Keep in mind, Trizano is dropping down from lightweight, so as long as the cut goes well, he should be the bigger guy in there Saturday night which could cause some issues with Dawson and the grappling edge. Pick em fight to me and I’m going to side with Trizano and his striking and leg kicks, 86% TD defense, and the fact that the fight is in Rochester, and he’s from New Jersey, so could have the crowd.
If Dawson can land multiple TD’s and control across three, he could hit some value.
Patrick Cummins -240 $8800 vs Ed Herman +200 $7400
Cummins and his scar tissue vs Herman and his 60% takedown defense. The D1 wrestling from Cummins will come into play as long as he avoids getting cracked from Herman early. Cummins always likes to stand for some reason which will make me nervous, but if he leverages the wrestling, it should be a boring decision siding with him.
Herman has value if he can land as Cummins is chinny. Other spots look more attractive to me if you are looking at Cummins and this price. Herman or pass for me, and I’m most likely passing.
Zak Cummings +130 $7800 vs Trevin Giles -150 $8400
I like Giles here. Probably his toughest test so far, but Cummings has been getting hit more and taking more damage as of late it seems and just isn’t looking like the old. Giles is 11-0 and a solid prospect in the division with enough speed and a jab that should land enough to win some rounds.
Trevor Smith actually had his moments against Cummings in his last fight, and I’d say Giles is a tougher test here. Giles coming off of two straight TKO victories, but Cummings has never been KO/TKO’d in his career. Most likely a decision win for Giles, but he could possibly score 80+ if he stays the course.
Julian Erosa +475 $6600 vs Julio Arce -650 $9600
Lack of defense will be visible in this one… am I’m talking about Erosa. He gets hit more than he hits on the feet on average, and while Arce doesn’t necessarily throw bombs or anything, hell be more technical and find the range that score. If Arce doesn’t finish him, he will cruise to a decision victory.
Arce’s fight here unless something crazy happens. He’s never scored more than 80 so at $9600 he’ll probably need a first round finish to hit value. Erosa has been finished in the first twice by KO/TKO, which happens to be Arce’s lowest method of victory (20%) Most likely a pass at this price.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS: Luque, Ramos,
SCRUBS: Lee, Heinisch
Ladd via DEC +105
Enjoy the fights!