UFC on ESPN+11: Gustafsson vs Smith AKA #UFCStockholm

Casey Olson

MMA DFS & Betting Program

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**RED ALERT**

EARLY FIGHTS THIS SATURDAY

Let’s get to business.

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Some quick DFS reminders:

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As mentioned in the tip sheet above, here’s my MMA DFS Heat Chart for UFC on ESPN+ 11. As you can see, the chart is ranked based on fight finish odds. Fight finishes are where the points are at in MMA DFS. Take a quick glance at the stack, and we will break down the individual matchups below.

UFC on ESPN+ 11

Gustafsson vs Smith

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Two key offensive metrics are strikes and takedowns. They get off on their opponents, watch your points rack up quick. Here's my Offensive Output Meter for the card. With this chart, you can compare historical fighter averages in these two, key metrics as I rank all fighters participating Saturday.

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PREDICTIONS ON THE MATCH UPS

MAIN EVENT

Gustafsson over Smith

Sweden’s own getting five rounds to work in the main event Saturday against Anthony Smith, who’s making a quick turnaround after losing to Jon Jones back in March. Props to Smith for going all five against Jones, in comparison to Gus who was finished in three in December against him as well, but I’m just not buying into the MMA math in this match up. Smith making the trek over to Sweden to fight their best doesn’t fair well for him. I see him either getting pieced up, or turtling up and getting TKO’d later in the fight.

REST OF CARD

Rakic over Manuwa

Tough to side with Manuwa after seeing his recent stretch of losses and chin exposure. Now Manuwa always has that punchers chance and has 88% of his wins coming by way of TKO/KO, but Rakic is solid. He’s never lost in this fashion and has actually only lost once in his career, that being his debut in 2011. Since, he’s rattled off 11 straight, finishing nine of those opponents, and eight via KO. I like Rakic.

Fishgold over Amirkhani

Check the output meter above on this fight. Fishgold will be the more offensive guy and should be able to wear Amirkhani out, even though he’ll be the much smaller guy in there.

Giagos over Hadzovic

Grappler vs Striker. Hadzovic should be able to win this one if it stays on the feet, but he has horrible takedown defense (31%) and doesn’t fair well against guys that have the ability to get it to the mat like Giagos. Not necessarily all in on Giagos and Hadzovic is the rightful favorite, but another value spot for me.

Jo over Teymur

The UFC really doing one last favor for Teymur, giving him a fight at home after going 0-3 so far in the UFC. Literally, what does it take to get a win? Teymur will come out fast and Jo should be able to weather the storm, and eventually turn the momentum, quite possibly into a finish. I just don’t think this Teymur brother is UFC caliber.

Akman over Khandozhko

Dude has some serious hair. If this one stays standing, Akman will have the advantage. Liking the value on the dog and I see it closer than the oddsmakers have it. Akman should be the more offensive fighter and push the pace, and that coupled with him being the hometown fighter should help if this goes the distance.

Evinger over Lansberg

Gift fight for Evinger in my opinion. Lansberg has alternated wins/losses over her last six fights. Although she will be the home town fighter, Evinger should eventually be able to get this one to the mat and do what she wants.

Santos over Ray

Really like Santos here. Although Santos hasn’t fought since October of 2016, I still this he can get it done. His layoff wasn’t due to injury concern, and just couldn’t lock up a fight. Dude will be motivated in my opinion to make a statement.

Camacho over Hein

Short notice fight for Camacho, down to 155. Still like his overall output advantage via historical data in comparison to Hein. Should land more across the three rounds. Typing this before the weigh ins so I’d like to see what we see on the scale first.

Malecki over Santana

Malecki from Sweden. Only reason I see this fight on the card. Two very green fighters with a combined five pro fights. Should be close but siding with the home town girl via decision.

Stosic over Clark

Clark opened +185 and has been bet down to the favorite now. I just can’t trust Clark’s chin against a puncher such as Stosic. Regardless, fight has a decent shot to end before the final bell.

Alvarez over Belluardo

Alvarez very slick on the mat. 14 of his 15 wins via sub. Side with him over Belluardo and his striking. Just avoid the big shot and get this down to the mat.

Worth a look on DFS:

STARS: Santos, Rakic, Gus

SCRUBS: Fishgold, Akman

Betting Plays

  • Fishgold -110
  • Akman +135
  • Stosic +100
  • Gus/Evinger/Santos +165

More later….

Enjoy the fights!

@Y2CASEY

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