NASCAR DFS: 2019 O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 DraftKings Lineup Plays

Fantasy NASCAR expert Brian Polking gets you ready to win big at DraftKings this weekend with his favorite DFS plays for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
Author:
Publish date:

The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes a stop at Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and after some surprises in qualifying, we have some interesting lineup decisions to make at DraftKings.

Having Jimmie Johnson and William Byron on the front row is strange enough, but we also have both Dillon brothers, Daniel Hemric and Bubba Wallace starting up in the Top 10. With unexpected drivers starting up front, it also means that we have a lot of the heavy hitters starting deeper in the field.

There are going to be a lot of place differential points up for grabs, but the trick is figuring out how to accumulate them while still piling up all those dominator points available in a 500-mile race. Ideally, a few of the bigger names in the back will be able to provide both, but someone starting up front is going to lead at least some laps early on and maybe even a large chunk of the race.

I'm definitely going to skew my lineups to the bigger names with the most upside in the differential category, especially in cash lineups. For my GPP lineups, Johnson is the driver starting up in the Top 5 that I am targeting the most, but I am also looking for some early dominator points from drivers who are starting just outside the Top 10 like Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney.

Check out all of my favorite DFS picks at DraftKings for Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway, and make sure to get your those winning combinations locked in.

Image placeholder title

CLICK HERE TO PEEP OUR TOP-OF-THE-LINE 2019 FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT KIT!

Must-Own Drivers

Kevin Harvick ($10,700)

He has been the Texas master in recent years, reeling off nine straight Top 10s and finishing either first or second five times in that span. Harvick led 87 laps and finished second at Texas last March, and he came back in the fall to lead 177 laps in a win. Starting 23rd, Harvick is going to post a strong score with differential points allowed, and his long-run speed suggests that dominator points could be on tap, as well. He looks like the total package for Sunday's race.

Kurt Busch ($9,500)

Busch will start way back in 30th Sunday, but you shouldn't expect him to stay there long. He has seven Top 10s in the last 10 races at Texas, and he has been a Top 5 threat in both races at 1.5-mile ovals so far this year. Perhaps more importantly, he had one of the strongest cars in Saturday's practice. Busch could easily top 50 fantasy points with earning a single dominator point. He is oozing with upside.

Kyle Larson ($9,200)

If I had to pick a favorite for the win this weekend after practice, it would have to be Larson because of his excellent speed on longer runs. Starting back in 22nd, he has plenty of differential points to gain, and I also expect him to provide a decent amount of dominator points. At this price, you can either build around him or pair him with another elite option.

Cash Plays

Kyle Busch ($12,200)

He tends to be overly critical of his cars, so when you hear Busch say he needs to go faster during practice, you don't want to overreact. His practice times were still strong, and he led 116 laps and won this race last year. He's also been the best driver in the series in 2019. I'm hesitant to say he will clobber the field in Sunday's race, but Busch has some differential upside after qualifying 16th and could still provide some dominator points.

Martin Truex Jr. ($11,300)

Truex hasn't stood out on the practice charts this weekend, but he's a weekly Top 5 threat who is starting back in 20th. He also has seven Top 10s in the last eight races at Texas. I'm not sure he will get enough dominator points to fully justify this price tag, but I think you can safely pencil him in for a 40-plus point performance.

Clint Bowyer ($8,900)

He caught a tough break in qualifying, which has Bowyer starting 25th this weekend. The practice times haven't been great, but Bowyer is usually good for a Top 15 on a bad day. He's a safe bet for a solid point total.

Aric Almirola ($8,400)

Almirola has been a fixture of the Top 10 all season, and he has seven straight Top 10s at 1.5-mile ovals dating back to last year. He starts 21st, but he had some of the strongest 15-lap and 20-lap averages in Happy Hour. At this price, he is a no-brainer cash game play for me.

Alex Bowman ($7,100)

It has been a rough weekend for Bowman thus far, and he will be starting in the back in a backup car. He will also be scored from 24th, which means he has plenty of differential points to gain. Bowman cracked the Top 15 at both Atlanta and Las Vegas, and he should at least be able to sneak into the Top 20 Sunday. With a lot of the cheaper guys starting closer to the front than normal, Bowman should be a safer source of cap relief for cash lineups.

 Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

GPP Plays

Brad Keselowski ($11,900)

Keselowski is still looking for a win at Texas, but he's had some strong runs here, and he had great long-run speed in practice. He's also been one of the best in the business in 2019, and he finished first and second in the two races at 1.5-mile tracks so far, leading a combined 50 laps in those races. He doesn't have the differential upside of some of the other big names, but you have to consider Keselowski a potential source of dominator points.

Ryan Blaney ($10,200)

With guys like the Busch brothers, Harvick, Larson and Truex all starting deeper in the field, Blaney's ownership could be a little late this weekend. As a result, he's one of my favorite plays for bigger contests. He put up Top 5 speeds in practice Saturday, and he finished in the Top 5 in both races at Texas last year, leading 40 laps in the fall. I think he has a great chance to contend for the win and deliver some dominator points.

Erik Jones ($8,200)

An 11th-place qualifying run is going to limit his differential upside and likely his ownership, but Jones has been great at Texas. He finished fourth in both races here last year, leading 64 laps in March. His practice speeds were solid, and he's one of the cheaper options with legitimate Top 5 potential.

Jimmie Johnson ($8,000)

It's been a while since we've seen Johnson be a frontrunner for the win, especially at a 1.5-mile track. Based on what we have seen on the track this weekend, he sure appears to have one of the cars to beat this weekend. Starting on the pole, Johnson is going destroy your lineups if he struggles. On the flip side, he could be a cheap source of a ton of dominator points. I like the idea of pairing Johnson with several of the bigger names starting outside the Top 20.

Chris Buescher ($6,400)

Since he is starting all that deep in the field this weekend (19th), I don't think Buescher will be all that heavily owned this weekend. However, he's still cheap, and he's been a fixture of the Top 20 all year, showing Top 15 upside on occasion.

O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 Starting Lineup:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. William Byron
3. Chase Elliott
4. Daniel Suarez
5. Austin Dillon
6. Denny Hamlin
7. Daniel Hemric
8. Joey Logano
9. Ty Dillon
10. Bubba Wallace
11. Erik Jones
12. Brad Keselowski
13. Ryan Blaney
14. Paul Menard
15. Michael McDowell
16. Kyle Busch
17. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
18. Ryan Newman
19. Chris Buescher
20. Martin Truex Jr.
21. Aric Almirola
22. Kyle Larson
23. Kevin Harvick
24. Alex Bowman
25. Clint Bowyer
26. Matt DiBenedetto
27. Ryan Preece
28. David Ragan
29. Matt Tifft
30. Kurt Busch
31. Corey LaJoie
32. Landon Cassill
33. Parker Kligerman
34. BJ McLeod
35. Ross Chastain
36. Bayley Currey
37. Reed Sorenson
38. Garrett Smithley
39. Timmy Hill

Image placeholder title

Enter a FullTime Fantasy Sports $44 or $88 draft now!