NFL DFS Quarterback Report - Week 13
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,600)
Mahomes seems so 2018 with Lamar Jackson lighting up the QB position almost every week of late. After starting the year with five straight games with over 300 yards passing with his best success in TD coming over the first three weeks (3, 4, and 3), Mahomes only has one game (446/3) of value since Week 5. He did miss two weeks plus left another game early with his knee cap issue. His best game of the year came in Week 2 vs. the Raiders (443/4). Oakland fell to 30th in QB defense (25.23 FPPG) after allowing over 30.0 Fantasy points in four of their previous six games. They allow 8.4 yards per pass attempt with QB tossing 26 TDs. Three different teams passed for over 400 yards with three TDs or more in each contest. Great matchup, and Mahomes needs to put his name back front and center on the QB map.
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,700)
Over the last three games, Jackson attempted only 61 combined passes, but he still threw 12 TDs with no Ints while gaining 10.1 yards per pass attempt. At the same time, he rushed for 239 yards and a TD. Jackson scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in seven of 11 games, which includes the previous four starts. He’s on pace for 3,520 passing yards and 1,274 yards rushing with 44 combined TDs. His only poor showing came at Pittsburgh (231 combined yards with one TD). The 49ers sit second in QB defense (13.76 FPPG) with more risk coming over the last month (25.45, 19.90, and 28.20 Fantasy points). San Fran has shown failure defending the run (4.7 yards per rush) while holding QBs to only 5.5 yards per pass attempt. I expect Jackson to have some value on the ground while possibly struggle to throw the ball. The 49ers have 44 sacks, which will be the key to their success defending Jackson in all areas. Tough buy in the daily games while still having a playable floor in season-long contests.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,500/FD – $8,100)
In an important game on the road, Rodgers struggled to make many plays beyond the line of scrimmage in the passing game. He completed 20 of 32 passes (62.5 percent) against the 49ers, but he gained a measly 3.2 yards per pass attempt with only one TD and five sacks. His lack of options at WR was exposed again in this game. The Packers remains almost a one-dimensional offense with the best success coming from their RBs on the ground and in the passing game. Over his last three games, Rodgers passed for only 498 yards and two TDs with his WR gaining only 66 yards last week. He slipped to 8th in QB scoring with value in three games (31.70, 48.05, and 30.15 Fantasy points). The Giants have allowed over 23.0 Fantasy points in nine of 11 games with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (37.45 and 30.30). New York allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt, which points to somewhat of a rebound game for Rodgers. His floor looks to be about 25.00 Fantasy points.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,700)
Murray returns to action after a bye week showing growth in Fantasy points over his previous three starts (25.45, 31.00, and 28.20). His success pushed him to 6th in QB scoring (22.90), but he still passed for under 245 yards in four of his last five games. His value as a runner (67/418/3) is a significant step below Lamar Jackson while also trailing in overall TD production (17). The Rams’ defense was embarrassed in Week 13 vs. the Ravens (39.90 Fantasy points to the QB position), but they remain 15th in QB defense (20.36 FPPG). Earlier in the year, two other teams scored over 30.0 Fantasy points against LA. The Rams allow only 6.8 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 18 TDs (13 in three games vs. TB, SEA, and BAL). Murray has a higher floor, but he hasn’t reached the level to produce an explosive game in this type of matchup.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,600)
Last week Winston attempted only 28 passes with Tampa playing from the lead. He still passed for 313 yards with three TDs while continuing passes to the other team (two Ints). Winston passed for 300 yards in six straight contests and eight of his last nine games. His best value came in Week 3 (380/3 and Week 4 (385/4). He remains on pace to set career highs in passing yards (4,932) and TDs (32). The Jaguars lost their way defending the QB vs. the Titans (35.95 Fantasy points) with much of the damage coming on the ground (7/40/2). Jacksonville rank 19th in QB defense (21.70 FPPG), with only one other team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (KC – 378/3). The Jaguars have risk vs. the run, which may lead to less upside in passing TDs in close for Winston. Tampa has two stud WRs, which helps Winston is the Bucs fall behind early.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,600)
It’s too bad Cleveland played so bad four weeks ago against Denver in a winnable game with the Broncos starting a third-string QB. They’ve since won three straight games at home with Mayfield playing better (758 passing yards with seven TDs and one Int). On the year, he now has only 14 passing TDs and 13 Ints. His best value came in Week 13 (327/3) helped by the rise of Jarvis Landry over the last month (29//339/5). Mayfield passed for 193 yards and two TDs in Week 11 vs. the Steelers. Pittsburgh climbed to 9th in QB defense (18.34 FPPG) after holding five of their previous eight opposing QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. At best, 250 yards with a pair of TDs in what looks like a grinder game.
Sam Darnold, NYJ (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,600)
After a slow start to the year for the Jets with Darnold missing a month with mono. New York won three straight games with Darnold shining back-to-back starts (293/4 and 331/3). Since returning to the starting lineup, he has 12 TDs and ten Ints with one other game of value (338/2). The Bengals have a ton of risk vs. the RB position while also ranking 28th in QB defense (24.68 FPPG). Before last week’s game, Cinci allowed over 23.0 Fantasy points to the QB position in six straight contests. The Bengals allow 9.0 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 16 TDs. I like that Andy Dalton is starting at QB for Cinci as it will help the game be more competitive on the scoreboard. Trending forward, but this could be the matchup where Le’Veon Bell shines.
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,900)
The QB train wreck over the last few weeks has to be Goff. He scored fewer than 10.0 Fantasy points in three straight games (9.15, 7.95, and 8.60) with no TDs and 628 yards passing. His best game came in Week 4 (517/2) while delivering only 11 TDs with 12 Ints on the year. In 2018, he passed for 470 yards with two TDs in two games against the Cardinals. Arizona has the worst QB defense (29.03 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Cardinals allow 8.3 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 29 TDs. His resume screams stay away, while his matchup may inject a pulse is his sliding season.
Jacoby Brissett, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,200)
The injury to T.Y. Hilton has led to Brissett losing his value over his last few games. He passed for fewer than 210 yards in three straight starts with only one passing TD. Brissett did pick up some value in the run game (8/36/2). He did play well earlier in the year in three games at home (310/2, 265/3, and 326/4). Earlier in the year, he passed for 146 yards with three TDs vs. the Titans. Tennessee is league average against QBs (20.50 FPPG), with one team producing an impact game (KC – 446/3). Moving in the wrong direction and Hilton may not play this week.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,300)
For the fifth straight game, Wentz produced one TD while failing to deliver impact yards (191, 172, 239. 214, and 256). His TD to INT ratio (17:6) is attractive, but he’s gaining only 6.5 yards per pass attempt with his only game of value coming in Week 1 (313/3). The Eagles continue to lack talent at WR, which hurts his big-play ability. Miami ranks 29th defending QBs (24.85 FPPG) with two disaster games (44.45 and 36.40 Fantasy points). Not quite a value as far as salary while having a favorable matchup. Tough to get excited.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,300)
I chased Tannehill around for multiple weeks in the daily games, but I parked him on the sidelines last week. He finished with 299 combined yards with four TDs while his top WR (A.J. Brown – 4/135/1) produced a big game. Over the previous five games with four coming at home, Tannehill averaged 279 combined yards and 2.6 TDs per game. The Colts ranks 11th in QB defense (19.23 FPPG) with no QB scoring over 23.0 Fantasy points over the last eight games. Getting more attractive, but this game will have a lot of runs while the Colts will try to slow down the game.
Nick Foles, JAC (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,500)
In his two starts since returning from his injury, Foles passed for 284 yards per game while tossing only two TDs. His completion rate (68.4) looks positive, but he gains only 6.0 yards per pass attempt. Tampa ranks second-worst in QB defense (26.48 FPPG) with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bucs play well against the run (3.3 yards per rush) with QBs tossing 26 TDs. An excellent chance at 300-plus yards with a run at three or more TDs.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $5,600/FD – $8,000)
The 49ers have thrown the ball a lot better over the last month, which led to Garoppolo passing for 1,242 yards and 11 TDs in four games. He did light up the Cardinals in two contests (317/4 and 442/4). His only other game of value came in Week 2 (296/3). He’s now on pace for 3,972 yards passing with 30 TDs. The Ravens moved to fifth in QB defense (16.42 FPPG) after holding QBs to under 18.0 Fantasy points in their previous six games. Not ideal, especially with both teams wanting to run the ball.
Daniel Jones, NYG (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,400)
Jones played better over his last four games (1,104 combined yards with 11 TDs and one Int) while playing three games on the road. Over nine games, he has three contents of value (364/4, 322/4, and 308/4), leading to 19 TDs and eight Ints. Green Bay sits 10th in QB defense (18.48 FPPG), with six of 11 opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. The Packers allow 8.2 yards per pass attempt, but QBs only have 14 passing TDs. His receiving core is getting healthier, while Saquon Barkley may steal the show in New York.
Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,200)
Allen has a nice rebound game (256/3) after getting run over the previous week vs. the Falcons (325/0 with four Ints). Over his last three starts, he passed for 888 yards and four TDs. His top WR D.J. Moore is a rising stud based on his previous four games (35/480/2), plus an elite pass-catching back. After nine games, Allen only has 13 TDs while averaging 242 passing yards per game. Washington is 17th in QB defense (20.91 FPPG), with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Redskins allow 7.8 yards per pass attempt with QB tossing 20 TDs. More of a coin flip with Christian McCaffrey being the critical factor in his scoring plays at the goal line.
Derek Carr, OAK (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,200)
Last week Carr had his worst game of the year (127/0) while struggling to make plays all day. He gained only 4.7 yards per pass attempt with s season-low in his completion rate (55.6). Over his previous eight games, Carr passed for 2,037 yards with 13 TDs and three Ints while completing 72.8 percent of his passes. In Week 2, he passed for 198 yards and one TD at home vs. the Chiefs. Kansas City is 23rd in QB defense (22.40 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Chiefs allow 7.1 yards per pass attempt with four teams delivering three passing TDs. With no games with over 300 yards passing and one showing with three TDs, Carr looks more boring.
Philp Rivers, LAC, (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,300)
Rivers has two TDs or fewer in each of his last ten games while passing for over 300 yards in seven contests. Over his previous seven games, he threw 12 Ints with only eight TDs. The Broncos held him 211 yards with no TDs and two Ints in Week 5 at home. Denver has the fourth-best QB defense (15.87 FPPG) in the NFL, with nine teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. The Chargers have receiving talent, but their offensive line remains a problem. I don’t expect the Broncos to score a lot, which will limit the passing game for Rivers.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,100)
In his ten games played for the Dolphins, Fitzpatrick has ten TDs and ten Ints with his best game coming in Week 9 (288/3) at home. Over his previous three games, he passed for 706 yards with two TDs and three Ints. The Eagles worked their way to 12th to QB defense (19.34 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points over the last four games. Earlier in the season, four teams had success at QB against Philly (380/3, 320/3, 422/2, and 333/4). Possible let down games for the Eagles’ defense, which may lead to the Dolphins surprising in the passing game.
Devlin Hodges, PIT (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,800)
The Steelers will roll with Hodges in Week 13 after he led the Steelers to a win last week. Over three games of action, he passed for 318 yards with two TDs and success in his completion rate (67.5). Pittsburgh’s QBs only have 14 passing TDs in 2019 while gaining 6.8 yards per pass attempt. The Browns fell to 22nd in QB defense (22.02 FPPG) after struggling vs. the QB position twice over the last three games (28.10 and 27.20 Fantasy points). Hodges has a short resume, while both teams need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I see more runs than success in the passing game.
Andy Dalton, CIN (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,000)
With their winless streak mounting, the Bengals will turn back to Dalton as the starting QB in Week 13. Over eight games, he passed for 2,252 yards with nine TDs and eight Ints with his best value coming in Week 1 (418/2) and Week 2 (311/2). Over the past three games with Ryan Finley starting at QB, Cinci passed for 474 yards and two TDs with huge weakness in their completion rate (47.1). The Jets rank 18th in QB defense (20.96 FPPG), with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. New York plays well against the run, which will force Cinci to pass. Dalton is a professional QB with a favorable salary. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him pass for a couple of TDs with 250 yards leaving him within string distance of an impact game.