NFL DFS Quarterback Report - Week 15
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,300)
Mahomes hasn’t been seen at the top QB rankings at the end of any of the previous three weeks. Over this span, he posted 18.00, 21.25, and 17.75 Fantasy points while combining for 730 yards with four TDs and two Ints. Mahomes scored over 30.0 Fantasy points in four contests (31.10, 37.15, 31.60, and 34.30) in 2019 while leaving his Week 7 matchup vs. the Broncos after completing ten of 11 passes for 76 yards with one TD ad two Ints. Denver slipped to 6th in QB defense (17.52 FPPG) after struggling a bit against Deshaun Watson (33.00 Fantasy points). Only one other QB scored over 22.0 Fantasy points. They allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt with QB tossing 15 TDs. Not as sexy as Fantasy owners expected in 2019, but he still has upside in his receiving core even with a below-par matchup.
Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,100)
There is no doubt that Wilson is a great QB who knows how to win late in games when the ball is in his hands. As the Fantasy calendar turned to the championship rounds, a big game was a must. Unfortunately, the Rams dominated the lineup scrimmage on passing downs, which led to no TDs for Wilson with 273 combined yards. LA sacked him five times while forcing him to run for his life on many other plays. Despite ranking fourth in QB scoring coming into the week, Wilson has not been an edge in Fantasy points six of his previous seven games (17.75, 17.50, 19.90, 13.50, 20.30, and 14.30). His high ranking falls on five qualify games (28.20, 45.40, 32.60, 31.85, and 43.00 Fantasy points) over the first nine weeks. Carolina sits 10th in QB defense (19.18 FPPG) with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy from the QB position. The Panthers allowed over 300 yards passing in six of their previous nine games with WRs delivering five big games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, 19/283/1, and 14/271/2). Wilson is due for a big game, and I expect Carolina to at least push the issue on the scoring board. Possible 300-plus yards with a floor of three TDs.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,200)
Over the last 11 games, Winston passed for over 300 yards in nine contests with 24 TDs and 20 Ints. His best value came in three games (380/3, 385/4, and 456/5), putting him on pace for 5,341 combined yards with 33 TDs. Winston came out of last week’s game with a right thumb injury, which he’ll play through this week. Tampa lost Mike Evans in Week 13, which does hurt the explosiveness of the Bucs passing game. Detroit has risk vs. RBs (30th) and QBs (25th – 23.56 FPPG). Three opponents scored over 30.0 Fantasy points from the QB position. They allow 7.8 yards per pass attempt with 26 TDs. His passing yards should be there, but Tampa will score a TD or more on the ground, plus the loss of Evans will make their WRs easier to defend.
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200)
After 13 weeks, Watson remains the second-highest scoring QB (25.70 FPPG) in four-point passing TD leagues. Last week he struggled to make plays, but a pair of rushing TDs and volume of pass attempts (50) led to his second straight games with over 30 Fantasy points (31.30 and 33.00). Watson had five other games of value (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, and 30.55 FPPG). His floor is helped by his value as a runner (68/344/7). The Titans are league average defending the QB position (20.48 FPPG) with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Tennessee allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt with 19 TDs. This game could be played at a fast pace, creating possible upside for Watson and the Texans’ passing game.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600)
Twice over the last three weeks, Tannehill delivered impact games (35.95 and 32.45 FPPG) despite attempting only 45 combined passes in there two outings. In his seven starts, he averaged 26.42 Fantasy points with 18 TDs and four Ints. Tannehill passed for over 300 yards three games. Houston ranks 28th in QB defense (25.03 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Over the past nine games, seven QBs have three TDs or more vs. the Texans, with five teams passing for more than 300 yards. Tennessee continues to improve offensively, giving Tannehill another chance at over 300 yards with three TDs or more.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,700)
Momentum hasn’t been a friend of Mayfield in 2019 as his accuracy and mistakes outweigh any gains in his rookie season (27 TDs in 14 games). After this week, he’ll match 2018 in games played while falling short in TDs (18 in 13 contests) while making too many mistakes (16 Ints). Over the previous two games, he passed for only 388 yards with one TD and three Int. His only game of value in 2019 came in Week 12 (327/3). The Cardinals remain the worst defense in the league vs. QBs (27.98 FPPG), with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Arizona allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 24 TDs. A favorable matchup, but Mayfield averages only 13.25 FPPG game on the road.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,300/FD – $8,000)
Rodgers has been worthless in all Fantasy formats in four (161/1, 233/0, 104/1, and 195/1) of his previous five games. Despite his regression, he still ranks eight in QB scoring (21.75 FPPG) thanks to four impact games (31.70, 48.05, 30.15, and 30.55 Fantasy points). This season Rodgers averages only 33.9 passes per game compared to 37.3 in 2018. The Bears held him to 203 passing yards with one TD. Chicago sits 7th in QB defense (20.80 FPPG), with only one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bears allow 6.6 yards per attempt with no team tossing more than two TDs. The Packers lack depth at WR and TE, force Green Bay to move the ball with their running backs.
Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,800)
Passing yards for Prescott have been plentiful in four (397, 444, 355, and 334) of his previous five games while averaging 44.6 passes per game. He remains a much better player at home (28.05 FPPG) compared to on the road (20.14 Fantasy points). Prescott has over 30.0 Fantasy points in five games. The Rams climbed to 13th in QB defense (19.53 FPPG). They’ve allowed over 30.0 Fantasy points in three contests, but Los Angeles also held nine opponents to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. The Cowboys need a win in the worst way, and their best offensive play tends to come at home.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,300)
After a great game (365/3) at home, Fitzpatrick passed for 245 yards with no TDs vs. the Jets. Over his previous five starts on the road, he passed for 1,100 yards with five TDs and seven Ints. Fitzpatrick did add value away from home on the ground (27/163/3) over this span. His completion rate is much better in Miami (69.2) than on the road (60.1). The Giants ranks 26th in QB defense (24.03 FPPG), with eight of their previous nine QBs scoring over 23.0 Fantasy points. The health of DeVante Parker would be the key to the Dolphins’ passing game along with no bad weather in New York. May surprise, but his resume on the road and higher salary would push me elsewhere.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,700)
Wentz shined late vs. the Giants, which led to 325 yards and two TDs. His success helped keep the Eagles' hopes alive by a thread. He played well in Week 13 (310/3) as well, but Wentz put Fantasy owners asleep over the previous seven games (224 passing yards per game with eight TDs). He threw the ball well in his first matchup against the Redskins (313/3). After 14 weeks, Wentz is the 12th ranked QB (20.23 FPPG). Washington is 19th defending QBs (20.96 FPPG) with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Redskins allow 7.5 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 23 TDs. Over the last three games, Washington posted 17 sacks. Tough to trust with Philly having a ton of injuries at wide receiver.
Jared Goff, LAR (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,800)
Goff scored fewer than 10.0 Fantasy points in three straight games (9.15, 7.95, and 8.60) with no TDs and 628 yards passing. The Rams regained some of their lost value in the passing game over the past two weeks (424/2 and 293/2). His best game came in Week 4 (517/2) while delivering only 15 TDs with 14 Ints on the year. Goff still doesn’t have a game in 2019 with more than two TDs. Dallas sits 12th in QB defense (19.43 FPPG), with most of their failure coming in three (29.55, 25.85, and 35.50 Fantasy points) of their previous four games. Moving in a positive direction, but his mistakes still curtail him upside in the daily contests.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $6,100/FD – $8,400)
Over the previous six games, Garoppolo played at a high level in three contests (317/4, 424/4, and 349/4). His success pushed him to 14th in QB defense (20.11 FPPG), with only one other game of value (296/3). He’s on pace for 3,993 passing yards with 32 TDs. The Falcons rank 29th in QB defense (25.15 FPPG) with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Atlanta allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 24 TDs (only five passing allowed over the last five games). San Fran tends to run the ball well, which points to a midtier game.
Tom Brady, NE (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,600)
The end is near for Brady after a stellar NFL career. There was a time when he made the players around him better in the passing game. In 2019, his weak offensive line and lack of options at WR and TE crimp his ability to make plays when given a short passing window. Brady can still make all the throws while offering excellent decision making when reading defenses, but defenses can now attack at the line of scrimmage with no real fear of being beat with long scoring plays. Over his last five games, he scored low Fantasy points in four contests (17.25, 10.80, 13.50, and 13.45). Brady played the best in three games (341/3, 348/3, and 326/3). The Bengals bumped to 24th in QB defense (23.01 FPPG) with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. His lack of depth at WR and TE limits his upside at the end of his career.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,500)
After disastrous start to 2019 over his first seven games (1,263 combined yards with five TDs and three Ints), Trubisky played more in line with his preseason hype over his last three games (945 combined yards with nine TDs. Last week he looked much better as runner (10/63/1), which had been lost asset in his game in 2019. The Packers held him 228 yards and no TDs in Week 1. Green Bay ranks 8th in QB defense (17.57 FPPG), with eight teams scoring fewer than 19.0 Fantasy points. On the rise, but a repeat performance on the road would be a lot to ask.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,900)
Over his last eight games, Cousins passed for 2,539 yards and 21 TDs with only two Ints. He has three games of value over this span (333/4, 338/4, and 319/3). Last week the Lions didn’t put up a fight on the scoreboard, which led to Cousins gaining only 242 yards with a TD. The Vikings continue to play without Adam Thielen, which limits the upside of the passing game. The Chargers rank fourth in QB defense (16.59 FPPG) with 11 QBs scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. More of a grinder game unless game score gets out of line.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,600)
Ryan offered two steady games (312/2 and 313/2) at home after struggling in Week 12 (271/0) at home. He has two TDs or fewer in each of his last six games. His season started with six straight games with over 300 yards passing and four games of value (320/3, 304/3, 330/3, and 356/4). He lost Calvin Ridley last week, while Austin Hooper may not be 100 percent. The 49ers fell to 5th in QB defense (17.14 FPPG) after getting drilled by Drew Brees (349/6). QBs gain only 5.8 yards per pass attempt with 17 TDs against the 49ers. San Fran has 45 sacks, which is an area of weakness for Atlanta (41 sacks allowed). Fade for sure.
Drew Lock, DEN (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,400)
The most popular jersey in Denver this week is Mr. Lock. He delivered a dominating performance in Houston (324 combined yards with three TDs and one Int), helping him to back-to-back wins to start his NFL career. After two weeks in the NFL, Lock delivered an exceptional completion rate (72.7) while gaining 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Over his last three seasons at Missouri, he passed for 10,861 yards with 95 TDs and 31 Ints with some value in the run game (151/409/8). With a solid play on defense, the Broncos only need him to be a mistake-free game manager with some value in passing TDs in the red zone. Denver has a developing WR1 in Courtland Sutton, and Noah Fant is showing signs of an upside option at TE. The Chiefs worked their way to 20th in QB defense (21.05 FPPG) after allowing fewer than 20.0 Fantasy to their previous three opponents. Kansas City allows 7.0 yards per pass attempt with 19 TDs. I don’t see a three-peat with the Chiefs’ defense on the improve.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,600)
Murray lost his momentum passing the ball over his previous three games (150/2, 163/0, and 194/2). His best two games came against Atlanta (31.00 Fantasy points) and Tampa (32.20 Fantasy points). Murray ha 13 TDs in seven games at home, but he also threw eight of his nine Ints in Arizona. The Browns are 17th in QB defense (20.71 FPPG), with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. A rebound game should be expected, but the Browns may slow down the game with the run.
Derek Carr, OAK (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,300)
With Oakland working their way into the playoff hunt after a win over the Bengals in Week 11, Carr turned three disappointing games (127/0, 222/1, and 263/2). He has two TD or fewer in 12 of 13 games while failing to pass for over 300 yards in any contest in 2019. His best value came in Week 8 (285/3) in Houston. The Jaguars ranks 22nd defending QBs (22.09 FPPG) with two of their previous three opponents scoring over 35.0 Fantasy points from the QB position. Jacksonville allows 8.0 yards per pass attempt with 20 passing TDs. The Raiders will run the ball well, which gives Carr more boring results.
Philip Rivers, LAC (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,400)
After many weeks of no relevant value in the Fantasy market, Rivers had his way with the Jaguars’ defense in Week 14 (314/3). Over his previous 11 games, he had two passing TDs or fewer with five games with over 300 yards. His only game of value came in Week 1 (333/3). His yards per pass attempt jumped to 8.0 while continuing to have too many Ints (15). Minnesota is 11th in QB defense (19.23 FPPG), with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Vikings have regressed defending WRs, which invites possible follow-through for Rivers.
Gardner Minshew, JAC (DK – $5,500/FD – $6.900)
Minshew passed for 147 yards and a TD in the second half in relief of Nick Foles in Week 13 while also earning the start last week. His best value came in Week 5 (27.90 Fantasy points) and Week 8 (27.75 Fantasy points). Minshew passed over 300 yards in two games while producing over two TDs only once in nine starts. Last week he passed for 162 yards with one TD. The Raiders fell to 30th in QB defense (25.48 FPPG) after allowing over 30.0 Fantasy points in five of the previous seven weeks. Oakland allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 30 TDs. A very winnable matchup, but the Jaguars should be without their top WR plus a slow start may lead to Nick Foles regaining some playing time.
Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000)
Over the last two games, Allen sniped two TDs from Christian McCaffrey while delivering 571 yards with three TDs and three Ints. His value as passer improved over his previous five contests (1,459 yards with nine TDs), but he did throw eight Ints. Seattle ranks 21st in QB defense (21.59 FPPG), but no team scored over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Seahawks allow 7.3 yards per pass attempt with no team passing for more than two TDs. Only a steady option with McCaffrey regaining his scoring value.
David Blough, DET (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,300)
Blough regressed in his season start (205/1) while having a lot less time to throw (five sacks). Over two games, he passed for 485 yards with three TDs and three Ints. Tampa ranks 31st in QB defense (25.50 FPPG), with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (none over the last four games). The Bucs allow 7.2 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 29 TDs. The Lions lost their WR2 (Marvin Jones) for Week 15, plus they had an injury to their starting TE in the previous game. Maybe 20.0 Fantasy points, but he’s far from a lock to have success.