NFL DFS: Week 13 RB Report
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
Todd Gurley (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,800): After a bye week and a short outing in what looked like an explosive game in Week 11 vs. the Chiefs, Gurley wasn't on the Rams' injury report on Wednesday. In three of his last five games, Todd gained fewer than 100 combined yards (86, 79, and 94). His TD streak ended at ten in his last game. Gurley gained over 100 yards in seven games with 17 TDs and 56 catches while averaging 23.0 touches per game. The Lions are 24th in the NFL defending RBs with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. They allow 4.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring with RBs scoring 11 TDs. I expect him to bounce back in a big way in this game. Possible 50+ yard TD in the run game with a very good chance of hitting on another long play in the passing game.
Christian McCaffrey (DK – $8,800/FD – $8,800): McCaffrey posted three explosive games in his last four starts (32/70, 36.80, and 46.70). His great game last week (237 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches) puts him on pace for 1,985 yards with 15 TDs and 103 catches or 370+ Fantasy points. In Week 9, Christian had 156 combined yards with two TDs and five catches against the Bucs. Tampa ranks 26th defending RBs with six teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bucs allowed over 5.0 yards per rush in five of their last six games with RBs scoring 18 TDs with failure vs. RBs in the passing game in two outings (NO - 9/112/1 and CHI - 7/121/1). A very winnable matchup with multi TD upside.
Kareem Hunt (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,900): Hunt failed to gain over 100 yards rushing in each of his last seven games, but he did score ten TDs over this span with strength in five games in the passing game (5/105/1, 5/55/2, 5/36/1, 1/50/1, and 3/41/1). Kareem averages 19.6 touches per game while being on pace for 1,748 yards with 20 TDs and 38 catches. Oakland is 23rd defending RBs with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points from the RB position. The Raiders allow 4.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs. Possible best game of the year in rushing yards with a chance at double-digit TDs.
Aaron Jones (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,600): Jones played well over his last five games (539 combined yards with five TDs and 15 catches) while averaging 16.8 touches per game. Green Bay had him on the field for about 80 percent of their plays over the last three weeks. His best success came in Week 10 (172 combined yards with two catches and three catches) and Week 11 (103 combined yards with two TDs and five catches). The Cardinals ranks 29th defending RBs with failure in five games (49.10, 38.90, 33.30, 41.00, and 54.10) due to 32.2 rushes per game and game score. Arizona allows 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring 17 TDs. A popular player this week due to his salary and matchup.
Phillip Lindsay (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000): Lindsay had a season-high 63 percent of the RB snaps last week. Over his last two games, Phillip gained 216 combined yards with three TDs and four catches while averaging 14.5 touches per game. Over the last five games, he had 84 touches (16.8 per game) for 508 yards with five TDs and ten catches. Cinci allows the second-most Fantasy points to RBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Bengals allow 4.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring 17 TDs. Trending forward with a fair salary and favorable matchup.
Lamar Miller (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,300): Miller hit on a 97-yard TD last week setting up his best game of the year (167 combined yards with one TD and one catch). Lamar played well over his last five games (555 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches) on 18.2 touches per game. The Browns are 27th defending RBs with four teams scoring over 35.0 Fantasy points per game. Cleveland allows 4.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring 15 TDs with 60 catches for 616 yards and one TD. Favorable matchup for a team that continues to run a balanced offense while winning games.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Saquon Barkley (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,600): Barkley continues to be a beast. Over the last two games, Sagauon gained 294 combined yards with five TDs and nine catches pushing him to second in RB scoring in PPR leagues. He's now on pace for 2,050 combined yards with 17 TDs and 103 catches. The Bears rank sixth defending RBs while showing more risk in three of their last six games (36.80, 39.50, and 41.80 Fantasy points). Chicago allows only 3.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring all of their TDs (5) over the last four games. Offenses have used their RBs in the passing game more vs. the Bears over the last six games (NE - 9/70/2, BUF – 10/32, DET – 12/98/1, and DET – 11/79). Barkley’s pass-catching ability does set a high floor in most weeks while the key to his upside is his ability to score TDs. Slightly against the grain.
Nick Chubb (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,700): Over the last two games, Chubb gained 336 combined yards with four TDs and six catches helping Fantasy owners make a nice push to league championships. Since taking over the lead RB role in Week 7, Nick gained 582 yards with six TDs and nine catches in five games while averaging 23.0 touches per game. The Texans are 10th in the NFL defending RBs with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Houston allows 3.8 yards per rush with RBs scoring five rushing TDs. A rising salary and tougher matchup on the road points to an easy avoid.
James White (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,800): With Sony Michel back on the field over the last two weeks, White finished with two boring games (26 combined yards with five catches and 88 combined yards with one catch). His playing time fell to 53 percent last week, which was below his season average (59.7 percent). Rex Burkhead will be back this week as well suggesting more competition for targets. James is on pace for 97 catches and 14 TDs, which sets a nice floor in most weeks. His best value will come in a chaser game. RBs have 54 catches for 536 yards and three TDs on 75 targets vs. the Vikings. Not a great matchup, but Brady will look to get the ball out quickly. White's key will be the role of Burkhead in this game. Priced too high for me.
Sony Michel (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,000): Michel regained his previous form (145 combined yards with one TD and two catches) after a slow game in Week 10 (11/31). Sony has been very good in his three home starts (328 combined yards with four TDs and two catches) while averaging 23 touches per game in New England. The Vikings allow only 3.7 yards per rush with RBs scoring only three rushing TDs. Below par matchup with minimal value in catches.
Tevin Coleman (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,200): Coleman came up short in his last three games (9.30, 11.50, and 11.30) after his best game of the year (156 combined yards with two TDs and five catches). Tevin averages 13.7 touches per game with seven TDs and 29 catches. The Ravens have the second best RB defense in the NFL with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. RBs gain 3.9 yards per rush with ten TDs against Baltimore. Not a great matchup, but Coleman is playing at home with a low salary.
Peyton Barber (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,800): Over the last five games, Barber gained 364 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches on 86 touches with a short game vs. the Panthers (40 combined yards with two catches on 13 touches). Carolina sits eighth vs. the RB position with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points from the RB position. The Panthers allow 4.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring five rushing TDs. Boring option with a low upside matchup.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
Marlon Mack (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,900): Mack was knocked out of last week's game with a concussion. He missed practice on Wednesday, and he doesn't appear trending in the right direction to play on Sunday. Over the last six games, Marlon gained 604 combined yards with five TDs and ten catches on 109 touches (18.2 per game). The Jaguars have the best Fantasy RB defense in the league with no team scoring over 25.0 Fantasy points. A poor matchup with questions with his playing time.
LeGarrette Blount (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,600): Blount will get an upgrade in his projections in the next update with Kerryon Johnson treading toward not playing. Last week he posted a surprising game (103 combined yards with two TDs and one catch) while facing a good defense against the run. Over the seven previous games, LeGarrette gained only 2.0 yards per carry with three TDs on 50 rushes. More of a fluke than a smart play this week with the Lions expected to throw to stay competitive in this game.
PLAYING TIME / INJURY RISK
Gus Edwards (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,400): Edwards gained over 233 yards and one TD over the last two games with 40 touches while receiving about 61 percent of the RB snaps. As great as he played in two favorable games at home, Gus did land on the injury report mid-week with an ankle issue. The Falcons allow the third-most Fantasy points to RBs with seven teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points from the RB position. Atlanta allows 5.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 rushing TDs. Need more info on his injury, but he does a favorable matchup.
Kenyan Drake (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,200): Drake played well last week (96 combined yards with two TDs and five catches on 13 touches), but he's landed on the injury report this week with a should injury. Kenyan scored over 20.0 Fantasy points (24.50 and 23.50) in two other games with failure in four other games (3.00, 2.60, 7.50, and 5.80). Drake averages 11.5 touches per game with seven TDs and 38 catches). RBs have 66 catches for 520 yards and three TDs vs. the Bills with RBs scoring 12 rushing TDs. Decent matchup while remaining in a split role, but a Fantasy owner needs more info on his health.
David Johnson (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,500): Johnson had tough sledding on the road in Week 12 against the Chargers (79 combined yards with two catches) after looking much better in his previous two games (327 combined yards with two TDs and eight catches). David averages 19.9 touches per game with poor results in yards per rush (3.7). The Packers are 12th defending RBs with one team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Rusher gain 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring 12 TDs. Johnson should be more active this week with a TD, but he should still fall short of being a winning play in the daily games.
James Conner (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,900): Conner has been quiet in his last three games (14.30, 10.90, and 12.50 Fantasy points) while scoring one TD with 11 catches. James has over 100 yards receiving in five games while scoring two TDs in four contests. He averages 22.7 touches per game with success in TDs (11) and catches (49). The Chargers are just above league average defending RBs with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. LA allows over 5.0 yards per rush over their previous five games before last week with RBs scoring seven TDs. Conner should be much better at home leading to over 150 combined yards with a TD at the minimum.
Joe Mixon (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,400): Mixon picked up some garbage points last week, which led to a nice game in combined yards (155) and catches (7) while failing to score the needed TD to fill his salary bucket. Over his last seven games, Joe gained 680 combined yards with five TDs and 25 catches while averaging 18.4 touches per game. Denver is 14th defending the RB position with four teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Broncos give up 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring nine TDs. The Bengals will be playing this game with a backup QB with a chance to get A.J. Green back. Only a neutral matchup for me.
Dalvin Cook (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,200): Cook played reasonably well in two of his last three games (109 combined yards with four catches and 76 combined yards with one TD and three catches) while averaging 68.8 percent of the RB snaps in Minnesota. Over the last three games, Dalvin averaged 13 touches per game. The Patriots are 13th vs. the RB position with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. New England allows 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven TDs with some upside in the passing game (66/590/3). Getting better with each game, but his touches aren't where they need to be to played in the daily games.
Matt Breida (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,400): Breida gained over 100 yards rushing in each of his last two games (132 combined yards with one TD and one catch and 140 combined yards with three catches) while averaging 18.5 targets. From Week 4 to Week 9, Matt gained only 297 combined yards with two TDs and five catches while averaging 11.5 touches per game. Seattle fell to 19th in RB Fantasy defense after having huge problems vs. Christian McCaffrey last week (237 combined yards with two TDs and 11 catches). The Seahawks allow 5.3 yards per rush with RBs scoring 12 TDs. Seems viable, but Breida could be a trap.
Tarik Cohen (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,100): Last week Cohen caught seven passes for the fourth time this season, which led to 59 combined yards with a TD plus missed TD on a pass that was slightly overthrown. Tarik averages 10.3 touches per game with six TDs and 47 catches. RBs have 50 catches for 363 yards and five TDs on 71 targets against the Giants. Not as exciting as his early season success plus the Bears may be starting their backup QB against this week. More steady than explosive.
Dion Lewis (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,500): Lewis struggled in his last two games (32 combined yards and one catch and 41 combined yards and seven catches) while seeing his playing time fade over the last four games (84, 75, 70, and 54 percent of the RB snaps). Over the last five games, Dion gained 418 combined yards with one TD and 20 catches on 17.8 touches per game. The Jets are 20th defending RBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points from the RB position. New York allows over 200 yards rushing in their last two games at home with three rushing TDs. The Jets allow 4.4 yards per rush with RBs scoring 12 TDs. One of the Titans’ RBs will come in this week, so don’t overlook Lewis after he stole you Fantasy cash over the last couple of weeks.
Chris Carson (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,300): Over the last couple of games, Carson gained 146 combined yards with two TDs and two catches on 17.5 touches per game. In his last six full games, Chris gained over 100 yards in three games with four TDs. Last week Seattle had him on the field for 52 percent of their RB plays while continuing to rotate in two other RBs. The 49ers are 18th defending RBs with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. San Fran allows 4.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring eight rushing TDs. Volume type back who may score, but also be beaten by another RB stealing a goal-line TD.
LeSean McCoy (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,700): Over the last two games, McCoy gained 171 combined yards with two TDs and two catches on 45 touches. LeSean has fewer than 100 yards rushing in nine of his ten games. Miami allows the fifth-most Fantasy points to RBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points from the RB position. The Dolphins allow 4.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 15 TDs with some value in the passing game (66/520/3). Rate highly, but Fantasy owners have trust issues here.
Theo Riddick (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,300): Riddick has 25 catches for 174 yards on 28 targets over the last four games with minimal value on early downs (3/12). With Kerryon Johnson trending toward not playing this week, Theo should be active in the passing game for the Lions while expected to play in a chaser game. RBs have 62 catches for 352 yards and three TDs on 80 targets against the Rams. Only viable for me if tied to Matthew Stafford.
Duke Johnson (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,400): Johnson came up short last week (39 combined yards with one catch) with the Browns playing from the lead. Duke gained 132 combined yards with three TDs and three catches over the two previous games while averaging 8.5 touches per game. RBs have 62 catches for 414 yards and five TDs on 84 targets vs. Houston. Probably the better RBs to own this week in Cleveland with the Browns expected to chase on the scoreboard.
T.J. Yeldon (DK – $4,400/FD – $4,800): Yeldon should get the start this week with Leonard Fournette punching his way out of this week's lineup. Over the last three games, T.J. gained 128 combined yards with nine catches as the RB2 for the Jaguars while out snapping Carlos Hyde (74 to 58). Over the first eight games, Yeldon averaged 14.75 touches per game with five TDs and 37 catches. The Colts fell to 22nd in RB Fantasy defense after allowing over 35.0 Fantasy points to two of their last three games. Only a mid-teen option due to his expected timeshare in touches and playing time.
Doug Martin (DK – 4,200/FD – $6,100): Martin scored his first TD last week leading to a steady game (72 combined yards with three catches). Over his last five games, Doug gained 380 combined yards with one TD and ten catches while averaging 12.0 touches per game. The Chiefs allow the most Fantasy points to RBs with seven teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. KC allows 5.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring 15 TDs. Tough to get excited about a Raiders' player, but Martin does have upside in his matchup at home while gain score may lead to him riding the pine in the second half.
Jordan Howard (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,700): Howard can't find his rhythm in 2018. He came up short in two of his last three games (32 combined yards with one catch and 15 combined yards and one catch). Over the last two games, Jordan was on the field for over 62 percent of the plays run by Chicago, which was his highest rate since Week 2 (73.0 percent). The Giants allow 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring ten rushing TDs. Seems like a donation while emptying Fantasy owners pockets along the way. May surprise while having plenty of downside as well.