NFL DFS: Week 13 WR Report
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
Adam Thielen (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,100): Thielen posted his ninth game with over 100 yards receiving in Week 12 (8/125/1) after falling short of his 2018 success in Week 9 (4/22/1) and Week 11 (7/66). Adam scored a TD in seven of his last eight games while averaging 11.3 targets per game. Over the last two weeks, Thielen showed up on the injury report with multiple minor issues. The Patriots are 12th in the NFL defending WRs (138/1784/12 on 236 targets) with only one team gaining over 200 yards (JAC - 16/246/3), which came in Week 2. NE has one good CB, who won’t face Thielen on many plays. Overall, the Patriots have risk in TDs in their secondary pointing to another high volume game for Adam. A decent battle on the scoreboard should lead to Thielen being the top choice at WR in Week 13.
Davante Adams (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,500): Adams slipped to 4th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Davante gained over 100 yards receiving in four of his last seven games while scoring ten TDs in 11 games. He averages 10.4 targets per game while setting career highs in catches (77) and receiving yards (1022) last week. The Cardinals fell to 14th in WR defense (146/1714/11 on 214 targets). Arizona held WRs to fewer than 200 yards in nine straight games while allowing nine TDs over the last five games. The Cardinals perceived success defending WRs is helped by their poor run defense (354/1593/16). CB Patrick Peterson won’t shadow Adams leading to a favorable CB/WR matchup with David Amerson who the Cardinals picked up off the scrap heap a couple of weeks ago. High floor while the Packers may lean on the run game, which may hurt Davante’s targets. I believe in his scoring ability and targets, which points to 25+ Fantasy points at a minimum.
D.J. Moore (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,400): D.J. shined in his last two games (7/157/1 and 8/91) while receiving 17 targets. The injury to Devin Funches helped his value and opportunity of Moore. Over the last four games, D.J. was one the field for over 85 percent of the WR snaps. In Week 9, he caught one of his two targets for 16 yards against the Bucs. Tampa allows the third most Fantasy points to WRs (150/1831/17 on 194 targets) with most of their failure coming over the first seven games of the season (NO - 23/268/2, PIT - 20/200/2, CHI - 10/147/4, ATL - 19/278/1, CIN - 15/219/2). I expect the Panthers to play much better offensively giving a Moore a chance to redeem himself after his poor showing in the previous matchup.
Corey Davis (DK – $5,500/FD – $5,900): Davis played better in two of his last three games (7/125/1 and 135 combined yards with one TD and four catches) pushing him to 23rd in WR scoring in PPR leagues. His only other game of value came in Week 4 (9/161/1) at home. The Jets allowed over 40.0 Fantasy points to WRs in six of their last eight games leading to him sliding to 28th in WR defense (162/2070/12 on 260 targets). CB Morris Claiborne allows a low completion rate with some mistakes in big plays and TDs. Davis is priced favorably with some of his best success coming at home.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,200): Valdes-Scantling looks to be overrated this week based on his failure in his last two games (1/8 and 1/3) while receiving five combined targets. Marquez appeared to be trending upward over his five previous games (21/361/2 on 35 targets) mid-season. The Packers had him on the field over 80 percent of the WR snaps over the last seven games as the WR2. Valdes runs most of his routes out of the slot, which points to upside in this matchup. Marquez won’t give a Fantasy owner a warm feeling before game time, but counting dollar bills may be his outcome.
Chris Godwin (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,400): Last week Godwin has WR2 snaps for the Bucs for the second straight game, but he still delivered to boring games (3/50 and 4/42) while receiving seven targets. Chris scored four TDs over the first four games with his best game coming in Week 10 (7/103). With DeSeanJackson battling a thumb injury, Godwin may end up with a nice bump in targets in this game. Viable option at this level while drawing a favorable CB matchup. Possible TD with game flow being the key to his upside. If Jackson doesn’t play, Chris will draw the green tag.
Curtis Samuel (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,500): Samuel is rated highly heading into this weekend with the idea that Devin Funchess won't play again. Funchess made some progress with his back issue, which may lead to both D.J. Moore and Samuel being downgraded as options in the daily games this weekend. Last week Curtis was on the field for a career-high 92 percent of the WR snaps, but Carolina only gave him three touches leading to 42 combined yards with a TD and two catches. Samuel has five TDs over his last six games. He did have the best game of his career in Week 9 (58 combined yards with two TDs and two catches) against Tampa.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Julio Jones (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,600): Jones pushed his way to 5th in WR scoring in PPR leagues after earning his sixth straight games with over 100 yards receiving. Julio has flown under the radar in 2018 due to low TDs (3), but he now has eight strong games with over 100 yards receiving while averaging 11.4 targets per game. The Ravens have the second best WR defense in the NFL (123/1417/9 on 215 targets) while holding their last six opponents to fewer than 200 yards receiving at WR. Their biggest struggles vs. WRs came in vs. CIN (12/18/4) and CLE (17/218/1). Baltimore doesn't have one CB that looks elite while CB Marlon Humphrey has the most talent. A hot player who tends to struggle scoring TDs. Against the grain play while being a lower percentage own.
Stefon Diggs (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,700): Diggs has eight catches or more in four straight games leading to three nice games (10//119/1, 13/126/1, and 8/77/1). Stefon is now on pace for 126 catches for 1,264 yards and ten TDs while averaging 11.4 targets per game. This week Diggs will draw CB Stephon Gilmore in coverage on most plays. Gilmore allows a low completion rate while making some mistakes in TDs. Not the best matchup, which points to a fade for me.
Julian Edelman (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,200): Edelman finished with a steady game in Week 12 (4/84/1 on five targets), but lack of competition on the scoreboard left him short of an impact game. Over his last four games, Julian has 28 catches for 363 yards and one TD on 37 targets. The Vikings have the fifth best WR defense (123/1547/8 on 194 targets) with only one poor game defending WRs (LAR - 21/379/4). CB Mackensie Alexander will allow a high catch rate with no damage in TDs and minimal big plays. Not ideal, but Brady may look his way more often this week if Minnesota attacks Tom Brady in the pass rush.
Tyler Boyd (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,100): Boyd played well last week (7/85/1), which gave him his sixth game with over 20.0 Fantasy points (6/91/1, 6/132/1, 11/100, 7/62/2, and 9/138/1). Tyler is on pace for 92 catches for 1,223 yards and nine TDs on 8.1 targets per game. Boyd runs most of his routes out of the slot, which matches him up with CB Chris Harris. Not an impact matchup with fewer chances expected if A.J. Green does indeed return.
Calvin Ridley (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,400): Ridley is the 19th ranked WR in PPR leagues with four strong games (7/146/3, 4/54/2, 6/71/1, and 8/93/1). Last week he had a career-high 13 targets. On the year, Calvin averages only six targets per game with six games with fewer than 10.0 Fantasy points. After being limited heading into last week's game, Ridley missed a couple of practices this week with elbow and ankle issues. CB Brandon Carr hasn't allowed a TD in 2018 with a low completion rate, but he can be beaten for some long passes. Possible long TD if he plays, but his chances won't be elite without a battle on the scoreboard.
Sterling Sheppard (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,400): Shepard has been a poor play in five of his last six games (3/37, 4/34, 2/9/1, 2/22, and 4/37) in the daily games. His best success came in Week 3 (6/80/1), Week 4 (NO - 10/77/1), and Week 7 (5/167). Sterling averages only 6.4 targets per game. CB Bryce Callahan will allow a high catch rate and yards after the catch with minimizing the damage in TDs. Against the grain play with the talent to surprise if Eli Manning decides to look his way more often.
Christian Kirk (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,700): Kirk struggled to make plays in each of his last five games (3/57, 3/42/1, 2/8, 3/77/1, and 4/41) while catching only 51.7 percent of his targets. Christian has three TDs while never receiving over eight targets in any game this year. CB Jaire Alexander rates highly in coverage despite facing the Rams, the Vikings (2), NE, and SEA over the last eight games. I don't believe in Kirk in this matchup while respecting the cover skills of Alexander.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,300): Westbrook gained fewer than 45 yards receiving in each of his last six games, but he did score three TDs while delivering only 19 catches over this span. Dede averages six targets per game with two games of value (4/82/1 and 9/130). The Colts are 7th defending WRs (124/1510/12 on 179 targets) with ten of their 11 opponents gaining fewer than 200 yards from the WR position. CB Kenny Moore will allow a high completion rate with short value in yards per catch. The change in QB may very well prop up his stats, but Westbrook still falls into the risky category.
David Moore (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,300): After three quiet games (2/16, 1/16, and 4/57) with 18 targets, Moore posted the best game of his career (4/103/1) vs. the Panthers. David showed upside from Week 5 to Week 7 (3/38/2, 2/47/1, and 4/97/1), but Seattle only looked his way 11 times over this stretch. He'll draw CB Richard Sherman in coverage, which looks unfavorable. Low volume WR (4.9 targets per game) with scoring ability.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,600): Hilton played his best ball of the season over the last two weeks (9/155/2 and 7/125) while receiving 19 targets. T.Y. now has six TDs with two other games of value (7/83/1 and 4/115). He averages 8.1 targets per game. In Week 10, Hilton has three catches for 77 yards on seven targets vs. the Jaguars. Jacksonville is 4th in the NFL vs. WRs (119/1570/7 on 194 targets) with one failed game (PIT - 17/260/1). Jalen Ramsey is one of the best CBs in the league, but he is listed as questionable for this week's game with a knee issue. Like his direction, but this is the type of matchup a Fantasy owner needs to play in the daily games.
NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)
Tyreek Hill (DK – $9,100/FD – $8,400): Hill moved to second in WR scoring in PPR leagues after posting back-to-back impact games (7/117/2 and 10/215/2). Tyreek was a beast as well in Week 1 (7/169/2) and Week 6 (7/142/3). The Raiders are 11th defending WRs (111/1602/16 on 188 targets) while holding WRs to fewer than 170 yards receiving in their last six games. Oakland has risk vs. the run game and TEs in the passing game, which pulls away chances an upside from the WR position. CB Gareon Conley will give up TDs, but WRs tends to have a short catch rate and minimal TDs. I don’t fear his matchup at all, but game score may not give him the lion's share of chances. Nice floor with explosiveness, but a third straight game with over 35.0 Fantasy points may be a lot to ask.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK – $8,200/FD – $8,800): Hopkins saw his five-game scoring streak end last week after coming up short in catches and yards for the fourth time in six games (5/63, 3/50, 5/56, and 5/74). DeAndre has eight targets or fewer in five of his last six games as the Texans transitioned to a running team. Deshaun Watson attempted 25 passes or fewer in his last six starts. The Browns are 26th in the league defending the WR position (156/1996/12 on 263 targets) with four teams gained over 200 yards from the WR position (PIT – 15/218/1, OAK – 18/239/2, TB – 18/228, and ATL 18/210/1). The Browns have one developing young CB in Denzel Ward who tends to play more on the opposite side of the field on most plays. Even if Cleveland tried use Ward in shadow coverage, one-on-one coverage would be an upgrade for DeAndre. Great player who needs Houston to throw more to offer an impact game. Capable of 200+ yards receiving with double-digit catches and multiple TDs while being overlooked by Fantasy owners.
Mike Evans (DK – $8,100/FD – $7,900): Evans is the 10th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with over 100 yards receiving in four of his last six games (7/107, 6/179/1, 6/120/1, and 6/116) with a high level of success in Week 1 (7/147/1) and Week 3 (6/137/1). The Panthers fell to 19th in WR defense (149/1962/12 on 232 targets) with struggles with WRs in three of the last four games (TB - 13/170/2, PIT - 12/226/2, and SEA - 15/268/2). Mike came up short in Week 9 (1/16 on ten targets) against Carolina. James Bradberry isn't a great CB while having risk in big plays and TDs. He won the last battle with Evans, but it won't happen again on the road. Possible bounce back game with a TD while his salary seems high for his path and matchup.
Odell Beckham (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,200): The Giants never attacked the weakness in the Eagles' secondary in the deep passing game last week, which led to Beckham posting his lowest game (5/85) since Week 6 (6/44). Odell has over 100 yards receiving in five of his 11 games while scoring five TDs in his last seven games. Beckham averages 10.5 targets per game. The Bears struggled vs. WRs in three of his last seven games (MIA - 18/281/2, NE - 16/207/1, and MIN - 24/241/2). Chicago sits 21st in WR defense (161/1978/10 on 249 targets). CB Kyle Fuller will give up plenty of yards and some risk in TDs. A neutral matchup with the passing window for Eli Manning being the key to his upside.
A.J. Green (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000): Green doesn't have any projections at this point in Week 13, but he does have a decent chance of playing on Sunday. A.J. turned in a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday, which may not be enough for him to suit up this weekend. Over eight games, Green scored five TDs with over 100 yards receiving in two games (6/112 and 7/117) while averaging 9.5 targets per game. The Broncos struggled vs. WRs in Week 12 (PIT - 28/32/1) while ranking 20th in the NFL (152/1924/12 on 232 targets). Nine of the previous ten opponents gained fewer than 200 yards receiving from the WR position. CB Tramaine Brock won't pose much of a problem while Cinci will be playing with a backup QB. I need to see a game before playing Green in the daily games.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,800): Cooks is the 16th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with over 100 yards receiving in each of his last three games (6/114/1, 10/100, and 8/107) while receiving 32 targets. Four of his five games with over 100 yards receiving came at home along with each game with seven catches or more. His catch rate (70.2) remains high while needing to add more TDs (3) to his 2018 resume. The Lions are 15th defending the WR position (118/1807/15 on 173 targets) while showing disaster downside in two of their last three games (CHI - 11/255/3 and CAR - 17/291/2) and one other game (GB - 19/297/2) earlier in the year. Detroit continues to have failure at their second and third CB positions, which gives Brandin a chance at another good game. I don't like his resume on the road while expecting Todd Gurley to post an elite game.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300): Woods has 70 yards receiving or more in ten straight games while posting three games with over 100 yards receiving (10/104/2, 5/101/1, and 7/109). He broke his six-game scoreless streak in Week 11. Robert is on pace for 85 catches for 1,315 yards and six TDs while averaging 8.2 targets per game. Woods will draw the Lions' top CB Darius Slay in coverage on most plays. This season Slay isn't playing the best ball of his career while making more mistakes than expected in TDs allowed. Woods’ opportunity and scoring ability don't match his salary while playing in the right offense. Nice floor while needing more targets to produce an impact game at this level.
Kenny Golladay (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,300): Over the last three games (6/78/1, 8/113/1, and 5/90), Golladay has been more active in the Lions' passing game while receiving 12 targets per game. Kenny now has five TDs with one other game with over 100 yards receiving (Week 1 - 7/114). The Rams struggled vs. WRs in five of their last eight games (MIN - 25/338/3, DEN - 13/230/2, GB - 14/263/1, NO - 14/234/2, and KC - 19/307/4). LA ranks 23rd vs. WRs (128/1911/18 on 188 targets). CB Marcus Peters has failed in shadow coverage in Week 8 (Davante Adams) and Week 9 (Michael Thomas). Volume WR now with Marvin Jones out for the season. Game should lead to double-digit targets and at least one TD.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,000): Sanders played well last week (7/86/1 on 12 targets) while posting three other impact games (10/135/1, 7/115/1, and 6/102/1). Emmanuel averages 8.4 targets per game with an impressive catch rate (72.8). The Bengals sit 22nd in WR defense (148/1978/12 on 233 targets) with two disaster games (ATL - 21/344/2 and TB - 19/360/2). CB Darqueze Dennard will allow a high completion rate with minimal damage in big plays and TDs. Fade for me on the road.
Josh Gordon (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600): Gordon has four to five catches in each of his last six games, but he only has one TD over this span. His success over the last six games (27/465/1 on 49 targets) would project to 72 catches for 1,240 yards and three TDs over a full season. This week Josh will face CB XavierRhodes in coverage. Both players have size and a physical style of play, but the edge in talent should go to Gordon in this game. Possible best game of the year while expecting single coverage on a decent amount of plays.
Tyler Lockett (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,700): Lockett is the 18th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues despite averaging only 4.8 targets per game. Last week Tyler caught all five of his chances for 107 yards and one TDs giving him eight TDs on the year. His catch rate (81.1) commands more looks, but Seattle wants to run the ball. The 49ers are 18th against WRs (132/1829/15 on 216 targets) with struggles vs. the WR position in three games (DET - 17/252/2, GB - 15/264/2, and TB - 19/231/1). San Fran doesn't have a CB that can match his speed or quickness on the outside, but Lockett needs the Seahawks to attempts much more than 25 passes in this game.
Allen Robinson (DK – $5.700/FD – $6,500): The downgrade at QB didn't help Robinson in Week 12 (2/27 on four targets). After his best game of the season in Week 10 (6/133/2 on eight targets), Allen finished with only three catches for 39 yards on seven targets against the Vikings. His best two other games came in Week 2 (10/83) and Week 6 (5/64/1). The Giants are 9th in the league defending WRs (15/1773/8 on 200 targets) while struggling with WRs in three games (PHI - 14/202/2, ATL - 21/255/1, and TB - 16/268/2). CB B.W. Webb will give up catches with no mistakes in TDs. Tough to trust with Chase Daniels expected to start again at QB.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,200): Over the last four games, Baldwin caught 21 of his 26 targets for 207 yards and one TD. He remains limited in practice with a groin injury. Doug's been on the field for 90 percent of the plays run by Seattle over the last five games. The 49ers are 18th defending WRs (132/1829/15 on 216 targets) with three games having success at WR (DET - 17/252/2, GB - 15/264/2, and TB - 19/231/1). This game projects to have a lot of runs, which is a strike for Baldwin's upside. May surprise, but he looks overpriced.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,500): Landry gained fewer than 70 yards in seven of his last eight games with failure in two straight games (2/22 and 3/30). His best success came in Week 1 (7/106), Week 3 (8/103), and Week 7 (10/97/1). Jarvis is the 25th ranked WR while averaging 10.1 targets per game. Houston ranks 8th in WR defense (131/1628/7 on 212 targets) with no team scoring more than one passing TD from the WR position in 2018. Not playing well, but the Browns have won a couple of games in a row.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,400): Over the last five games, Fitzgerald has 22 catches for 245 yards and five TDs on 36 targets highlighted by his game in Week 8 (8/102/1). The Packers ranks 27th vs. WRs (139/1857/16 on 226 targets) while allowing over 40.0 Fantasy points to WRs in five of their last six games. CB Bashaud Breeland played better in his last two games after struggled in Week 9 vs. the Patriots after signing with the Packers. A chaser game should work in his favor, but Josh Rosen has a lot to prove on the road.
Josh Reynolds (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,800): Reynolds played well in his last two starts (3/42/2 and 6/80/1) as the replacement to Cooper Kupp. The Rams had him on the field for 98 percent of their snaps last week, which is a good sign for his value going forward. In his two best seasons (52/842/13 and 61/1039/12) at Texas A&M, Josh offered high value in TDs (25 combined). CB Nevin Lawson will give up TDs with big plays. The Rams will rotate targets between three WRs, which points to Reynolds be relevant in some games. Possible flier.
Anthony Miller (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,300): Miller has five TDs over his last nine games with one impact game (5/122/1). Over the last two games, Anthony only had seven combined yards leading to two short games (2/25/1 and 3/41). Overall, he averages 4.8 targets per game. CB Grant Haley started the last four games for the Bears with some failure when QBs look his way. Tough to trust with Chicago wheeling out a backup QB.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $4,300/FD – $8,800): In his three games with Houston, Thomas has seven catches for 99 yards and two TDs on nine targets. The WR2 position for the Texans has been productive in three games (8/113/1, 5/101/1, and 5/124/1), which gives Demaryius a chance at an explosive game if Houston decides to throw. CB T.J. Carrie will give up catches at a high rate with plenty of yards after the catch. If the Browns decide to take away DeAndre Hopkins, Thomas has a chance at a bump in targets. Priced to be on play this week.
Adam Humphries (DK – $4,200/FD – $6,000): Over the last five games, Humphries has 26 catches for 325 yards and four TDs on 32 targets with his best success coming in Week 9 (8/82/2) vs. the Panthers. Adam has the second most WR snaps for Tampa in 2018. CB Captain Munnerlyn will give up plenty of catches with risk after the catch. One of the secondary WRs for the Bucs have a very good chance to come in this week, but his recent success in TDs would push him in another direction.
Courtland Sutton (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,400): Sutton hasn’t developed as Fantasy owners had hoped after the trade of Demaryius Thomas. Over the last three games, Courtland has seven catches for 149 yards on 15 targets. On the year, he has yet to catch over three passes in any game while averaging only 4.7 targets with a short catch rate (46.2). More of a chase than a wise investment at this point of his career.
Jermaine Kearse (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,000): Kearse emerged as the top WR for the Jets in Week 12 (6/66/1) after posting three boring games (3/30, 3/20, and 2/16). This season Jermaine has one other game of value (9/94) with double digits targets in three games. Tennessee allows the fourth-most Fantasy points to WRs (151/1978/16 on 220 targets) with five teams gaining over 200 yards from the WR position. The Jets have scored only three TDs over the last four games making it trust to trust any offensive player even in a favorable matchup.