NFL DFS: Week 8 WR Report
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
Antonio Brown (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,800): Brown gained over 100 yards in his last two starts while scoring five TDs in his last four games. This season Antonio only has six catches over 20 yards compared to 27 in 14 games in 2017. In Week 1, he had nine catches for 93 yards and one TD on 16 targets against the Browns. Cleveland will allow plenty of WR targets to WRs (181) with five teams having seasonable success from the WR position (PIT - 15/218/1, NO - 17/162/2, OAK - 18/2399/2, LAC - 8/184/2, and TB - 18/228). One of the Steelers' WR should produce an elite game, which gives Brown a chance at his best game of the season. At this point of the year, Antonio is trailing his previous resume in yards per target (6.6) by 25 to 30 percent. Possible correction game.
A.J. Green (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,800): Green ranks 12th in WR scoring in 2018. He scored five TDs in his first four games, but none in his last three starts. Over his last three contests, A.J. had double-digit targets in each game leading to two games with over 100 yards receiving (6/112 and 7/117). Overall, Green is on pace for 91 catches for 1,397 yards and 11 TDs on 158 targets. Tampa allows the 2nd most Fantasy points to WRs (100/1160/11 on 129 targets) with four teams having success from the WR position (NO - 23/268/2, PIT - 20/200/2, CHI - 10/147/4, and ATL - 19/278/1). CB Carlton Davis will have his hands full in this matchup. Almost due for an impact game with a very good matchup.
Davante Adams (DK – $7.900/FD – $8,600): Adams is the second highest scoring WR after seven weeks. Davante has two straight impact games (9/140/1 and 10/132/2) while receiving 42 targets over his last three outings. Over his last five games, Adams has a floor of seven catches while averaging one TD per game. The Rams dominated WRs in three games (OAK - 5/43, ARI - 7/55, and SF - 4/35) while also showing disaster downside in two other games (MIN - 25/338/3 and DEN - 13/230/2). CB Marcus Peters has coverage talent, but he can also be beat for big plays and TDs. Game score shines toward another huge outing in catches and targets while a TD at the minimum should be expected.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,000): After a two-week slump (4/60 and 4/34/1), Smith-Schuster posted his fourth game with over 100 yards receiving in Week 6 (7/111). Over the first three games, JuJu caught 27 passes for 356 yards and one TD. He averages 10.5 targets per game. In Week 1, Smith-Schuster had five catches for 119 yards on eight targets against the Browns. Volume WR who needs game score to work in his favor to produce an impact game. Nice salary for his overall skill set and opportunity.
Tyler Boyd (DK – $6,700/FD – $6.800): Boyd struggled in two of his last three games (4/44 and 3/27). His game flashed high upside in four of his seven starts (6/91/1, 6/132/1, 11/100, and 7/62/2). Slot CB M.J.Stewart continues to allow a high completion rate while making many mistakes in TDs. In a couple of games this week, one of their top two WRs will produce an impact game. Tyler falls into that category while having a favorable salary for his opportunity (eight targets per game).
Jordy Nelson (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,300): Nelson moved to WR1 in Oakland with Amari Cooper gift wrapped to the Raiders. He struggled in his last game (2/6 on three targets), which came after a nice three-game stretch (15/264/3 on 16 targets. Jordy only has 31 targets over six games. WRs have 95 catches for 1,101 yards and seven TDs on 128 targets vs. the Colts with one disaster game (26/340/2). An interesting player this week as his targets should come in as his season high with a chance at TD.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
John Brown (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,700): Last week Brown caught all seven of his targets for 134 yards and a TD. He's on pace for 64 catches for 1,275 yards and nine TDs. His catch rate (51.9) remains short, which does invite up and down games. The Panthers rank 15th vs. WRs (81/999/5 on 125 targets) with struggles in two games (CIN - 15/218/1 and NYG - 17/285/1). CB Donte Jackson likes to keep WRs in front of him leading to minimal yards per catch and damage in TDs. Brown averages 7.7 targets per game. Wrong kind of dance on the road in this matchup.
Tyler Lockett (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,700): Lockett has a TD in five of his last six games. He averages only 5.2 targets per game while failing to get over five catches in any game. Tyler continues to get WR1 snaps for Seattle, but his playing time is trending backward slightly (73 percent in Week 6). Lockett should see the most snaps vs. CB Darius Slay, which is unfavorable. Big play WR with value in the return game, but his targets and scoring ability will be tempered in this matchup.
Marquise Goodwin (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,200): After a big game (4/126/2), Goodwin came up short again vs. the Rams (2/24 on five targets). Over four games with starting snaps, Marquise has 11 catches for 204 yards and three TDs on 18 targets. WRs have 102 catches for 1,151 yards and four TDs on 151 targets against the Cardinals. Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving vs. Arizona (Brandin Cooks - 7/159, Adam Thielen - 11/123/1, and Emmanuel Sanders (6/102/1). The Cardinals should try to use CB Patrick Peterson against him on most snaps, which will lead to another small game. Fade for me.
Michael Crabtree (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,300): Over the last three games, Crabtree has 17 catches for 225 yards and one TD on 30 targets. He's on pace for 80 catches for 935 yards and four TDs. On the year, Michael averages 9.1 targets per game. CB James Bradberry is a league average CB who can struggle vs. elite WRs. Crabtree has scoring ability at the goal line, but his game isn't where it used to be. Reasonable salary with a strong enough opportunity to deliver a 6/60/1 game.
Chris Godwin (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,300): Godwin has three mid-teen games (5/56/1, 5/74/1, and 6/56/1) as the WR3 for the Bucs. Chris has four TDs in six games while averaging 6.2 targets per game. William Jackson has been one of the better CBs for the Bengals in 2018. Not the best matchup for Godwin, but he did have the most playing time last week since Week 1.
Chester Rogers (DK – $4,200/FD – $5.600): With T.Y. Hilton back on the field last week, Rogers caught all four of his targets for 40 yards in a game that had a high volume of runs due to game score. Over the last four games, Chester has 24 catches for 246 yards and one TD on 36 targets. Improving, but his opportunity isn't where it needs to be with Indy having Hilton back on the field.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
Devin Funchess (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,400): Funchess has a TD in three of his last four games, but he came up with only mid-tier value in catches and yards over this span (4/67/1, 4/53, 5/74/1, and 6/62/1). Over his last five games, Devin averaged 8.4 targets per game. The Ravens are 3rd in the NFL defending WRs (80/928/7 om 136 targets) with the Bengals having the best success (12/168/4). No WR has over 100 yards receiving against Baltimore. Below par matchup while still missing the explosiveness to post an impact game in the daily games.
NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)
Tyreek Hill (DK – $8,600/FD – $7,800): Hill is the 3rd highest scoring WR after seven games with double-digit targets in three of his last four games. Most of his output came in two games (Week 1 - 7/169/3 and Week 6 - 7/142/3). Tyreek averages 8.7 targets per game with short success in his matchup vs. the Broncos in Week 4 (9/54 on 13 targets). Denver sits 10th in the NFL defending WRs (86/1090/7 on 144 targets) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Amari Cooper - 10/116, Robby Anderson - 3/123/2, and Robert Woods - 7/109). The Chiefs will move him around in formations to get him away from CB Chris Harris. Explosive player, but his salary is extremely high for his expected targets. Denver can struggle with speed WRs, which gives him a chance in this matchup. I like his salary better at Fanduel.
Mike Evans (DK – $7,800/FD – $7,800): After six games, Evans has three games with over 100 yards receiving and three games with three TDs. His last TD came in Week 3. Mike is well on his way to set career highs in catches (107) and yards (1,576). His catch rate (72.7) is the best of his career by a wide margin. The Bengals are 23rd in the league defending WRs (100/1266/7 on 155 targets) with four WRs gaining over 100 yards (Julio Jones - 9/173, Mohamed Sanu - 6/111, Juju Smith-Schuster - 7/111, and Antonio Brown - 5/105/1). The Bucs move their WRs around, which gives Evans a chance at making plenty of big plays this week. Tampa will allow points on defense, and they will attempt many passes as well. Mike should be active in this favorable matchup, but he still needs a TD to reach a winnable number in Fantasy points.
Odell Beckham (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,500): Beckham has two TDs in his last three games while delivering four games with over 100 yards receiving (11/111, 9/109, 8/131/1, and 8/143/1). Odell has double-digit targets in five straight games while averaging 11.4 targets per game on the year. Washington regressed vs. WRs in the last three games (NO - 14/273/2, CAR - 15/189/2, and DAL - 15/211/1). CB Josh Norman played well in 2018 leading to some TDs and big plays. Norman tends to stay on one side of the field, which will allow New York to get Odell in favorable situations. The Giants offense has underachieved in passing TDs (7), which is an area that they need to improve on to produce impact games for their WRs. Slightly against the grain this week, which more falls on the right arm of Eli Manning.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $7,200/FD – $6,700): Landry struggled to make big plays in three of his last four games (8.5, 5.5, and 9.7 yards per catch). Jarvis has three strong games (7/106, 8/103, and 10/97/1) on the year while averaging 11.7 targets per game. His catch rate (50) is the lowest of his career. In Week 1, Landry had seven catches for 106 yards on 15 targets against the Steelers. Pittsburgh allows the fourth-most Fantasy points to WRs (85/1236/10 on 143 targets) with most of the failure coming over a three-game stretch (KC - 14/201/3, TB - 17/278/2, and BAL - 14/234/1). CB Mike Hilton will minimize the damage in big plays and TDs. Seems overpriced for his scoring ability while chances and game score do give him a chance at solid production in Week 8.
Brandin Cooks (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,500): Over the last two games on the road, Cooks has six combined catches for 117 yards and one TD on 11 targets. His best play of the year came in his three home starts (7/159, 7/90, and 7/116/1). Brandin averages 7.3 targets per game in his six full games. The Packers are league average defending WRs (65/880/10 on 108 targets) while facing four teams (CHI, WAS, BUF, and SF) with weak options at WR. The Vikings beat Green Bay's secondary for 23 catches for 282 yards and four TDs in Week 2. Cooks will have an edge in this game, but his success is dependent on hitting on a long TD. The Rams will score plenty of points, and Todd Gurley's ticket can't come in every week. Worth a dart or two while being connected to Jared Goff or Aaron Rodgers.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,600): Woods has five catches or more in each of his last six games while averaging 8.3 targets per game on the year. Over his last five games, Robert has over 100 yards receiving in three games (10/104/2, 5/101/1, and 7/109). The threat of Gurley does create some one-on-one matchups on the outside, which gives Woods a chance to hit on some long plays. Viable swing at this level as I expect one of the Rams’ WRs to pay off this week. The Packers have risk in their secondary and Goff will expose that flaw in this game.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,200): Sanders played well in his last three games (9/72, 7/115/1, and 6/102/1) while receiving 31 combined targets. Emmanuel had his best game of the year in Week 1 (10/135/1). Overall, he averages 8.7 targets per game. The Chiefs held him to five catches for 45 yards and seven targets in Week 4. Sanders will be playing in a chaser game while having a favorable WR/CB matchup while KC pushed their way to 21st in WR Fantasy defense (103/1255/6 on 182 targets) with most of the failure coming over the first two games (LAC - 16/198/2 and PIT – 24/216/2). The bottom line here is a Fantasy trust in Case Keenum.
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,400): After missing two games, Hilton came up short in catches (4), yards (25), and targets (4), but two TDs saved his day. On the year, T.Y. averages just over eight targets per game while still trying to find his rhythm in the deep passing game (12.9 yards per catch and four catches over 20 yards). Oakland sits 25th in WR Fantasy defense (74/1129/9 on 122 targets) with failure in two games (MIA - 12/287/4 and SEA - 13/167/3). Indy will try to get him in favorable matchups while needing to do a better job getting him open in the deep passing game. Possible homerun or deep fly ball caught in the outfield stands.
Golden Tate (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,100): After a fast start to the year (28/389/4), Tate dribbled his way through to two short games (5/42 and 4/36). Golden averages 9.5 targets per game while being a career-high pace in catches over 20 yards (21). This game will be against his former team, which will add some extra motivation. Seattle played well vs. WRs in three of their last four games (DAL - 11/110/1, ARI - 9/82/1, and OAK - 10/62) while showing failure in two games (DEN - 18/243/2 and LAR - 14/235/1). The only WR with over 100 yards receiving against the Seahawks in Week 1 (Emmanuel Sanders – 10/135/1). Matthew Stafford has underachieved in TDs, but he does have the talent to produce a winning game with Tate being a piece of a winning outcome.
Kenny Golladay (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,600): Golladay struggled to get open last week, which led to his shortest game of the year (2/37 on two starts). Over his last three games, Kenny has ten catches for 209 yards and one TD on 15 targets. On the year, he has three games with over 18 Fantasy points (7/114, 6/89/1, and 4/98/1). CB Shaquill Griffin will have an edge in speed, but he will make mistakes in times. A neutral matchup with the talent surprise.
Allen Robinson (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,300): Robinson only has 15 targets over his last three games while coming up empty last week (1/4 on five targets). The Bears' passing game shined over the last three games, but Allen only had a small piece of the ride (8/91/2). Robinson was on the field 73 percent of the time last week, which was a season-low in playing time. He continues to battle a hamstring issue, which is a concern for his ability to play a full complement of snaps in Week 8. The Jets rank poorly against WRs (27th – 117/1403/9 on 190 targets) with four WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Randall Cobb – 9/142/2, DeSean Jackson – 5/112, Albert Wilson – 6/155/2, and Josh Gordon – 4/100). Nice matchup, but Allen is tough to trust at his point of the year.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,400): In Week 6, Baldwin showed a pulse (6/91 on eight targets) for the first time all year. Over the last three games, Doug was on the field for 79.4 percent of the plays for the Seahawks. The Lions are 6th in the league vs. WRs (60/870/7 on 89 targets) with one poor game (GB - 19/297/2). CB Nevin Lawson doesn't have a great NFL resume while playing above his previous success in his career so far in 2018. Only a flier until Seattle shows that they need to throw the ball to win.
DeSean Jackson (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,400): The Browns did a nice job defending Jackson last week. He caught two of his four targets for 25 yards. DeSean has three games with over 100 yards receiving (5/146/2, 4/129/1, and 5/112) while averaging under six targets per game. His value is created by his ability to create big plays (22.9 yards per catch with eight of his 23 catches going for 20+ yards). CB Dre Kirkpatrick will try to match him in speed, but he does make too many mistakes in the deep passing game. Boom or bust player who is priced a bit high for his targets.
Sterling Shepard (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,500): After a nice game (5/167) in Week 7, Shepard moved to 26th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Over his last five games, Sterling has 436 yards with 28 catches and two TDs while averaging 7.8 targets per game. After seven games, he has eight catches over 20 yards which is higher than his previous two seasons (six and seven over 27 games in 2016 and 2017). CB Fabien Moreau played well over his first six games with minimal big plays and no TDs.
Taylor Gabriel (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,500): As expected, Gabriel came up short against the Patriots (3/26 on four targets). In his previous two starts, Taylor gained over 100 yards (7/104/2 and 5/110). On the year, Gabriel averages 6.3 targets per game with two catches over 40 yards. The Bears' offense is trending upward in passing value, which is a positive for Taylor is this favorable matchup. A quick, shifty player who tends to lack opportunity in most games. More of a piece of Mitchell Trubisky than a plug in and play.
Geronimo Allison (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,700): The Packers hopes to have Allison back this week after missing two games with concussion and hamstring issues. Over the first four games, Geronimo had over 60 yards receiving in each game with 19 combined catches and two TDs. He averages 7.25 targets per game. The Rams have struggled to consistent CB play from their left CB slot, which gives Allison possible impact value in this game. Need more info on his health before adding him to your Fantasy roster on Sunday while being priced to shine with a full complement of snaps.
Demaryius Thomas (DK - $4,900/FD – $6,300): Thomas continues to drift through the 2018 season with only one game of value (5/105/1). He does have five catches or more in five games while scoring three TDs. Demaryius gets seven targets per game. In Week 4, he had four catches for 24 yards on seven targets against the Chiefs. CB Orlando Scandrick played well over the first seven games leading to a low completion rate and short yards per catch. He tends to hold on many plays, which works if he doesn't get caught. Thomas’s glory days left the building when Peyton Manning hung up his cleats. Tough to trust on the road in the daily games, but he still works as a steady option in the season-long games.
Randall Cobb (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,100): Cobb missed the last three games with a hamstring issue. He's been limited again in practice this week, but the Packers expect him to play on Sunday. After a great game in Week 1 (9/142/1), Randall struggled over his next two starts (4/30 and 4/22). Slot CB Nickell Robey-Coleman played well over his last 23 games. I need to see a full game from Cobb before adding him to my Fantasy rosters while this game should lead to plenty of balls in the air for the Packers.
Marvin Jones (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,000): Jones has four catches or fewer in each game this year while failing to gain over 70 yards any game. He averages 6.2 targets per game with three TD scored on the year. CB Tre Flowers struggle in Week 1 vs. the Broncos WRs, but he's been a much better player over the last four games. Marvin remains the WR1 for the Lions as far as snaps, but he ranks thrid on the team in targets. His ability to hit on a long TD keeps him alive at this price point.
Sammy Watkins (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,400): Watkins only has one TD on the year with one playable game (6/100). Over his six full games, Sammy caught 26 passes for 346 yards and one TD on 40 targets. CB Bradley Rody will give up big plays and TDs, but Watkins needs more chance to produce a big game. Possible piece of the rising star Patrick Mahomes.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,200): Valdes-Scantling was a very good fill in for Geronimo Allison over his last two games (10/171/1 on 17 targets). With both starting WRs for Packers due back this week, Marquez will see a drop off in snaps in Week 8. Player to follow this weekend as his opportunity for snaps may rise if Cobb or Allison can’t play.
Christian Kirk (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,400): Kirk played well in four of his last five games (7/90, 3/85/1, 6/77, and 3/57) while averaging six targets over this span. Over the last two games, Christian had WR2 snaps for the Cardinals. In Week 5, he played well vs. the 49ers (3/85/1). CB Richard Sherman is expected to play on Sunday, which is a coin toss at this point of his career. He needs better QB play in Arizona, which is a tough call at this point of the season.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,800): Fitzgerald has 40 yards or fewer yards receiving over his last six games. He did score his first TD of the year in Week 7 when he caught four of his eight targets for 40 yards. Larry averages 6.1 targets per game while gaining only 9.8 yards per catch. In Week 5, he had two catches for 35 yards on third targets against the 49ers. WRs have 84 catches for 1,254 yards and nine TDs on 142 targets against San Fransico. Fitzgerald tends to play well against the 49ers, and his salary has fallen to the bottom tier of the food change. Sometimes you just have to root for the character of a player. Larry is a great football player and a better man.
Martavis Bryant (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,300): Bryant has a boring resume again in 2018 (14/220 on 22 targets) while still looking for his first TD of the year. Over his last three games, Martavis did gain over 20 yards on five of his eight catches. With Amari Cooper no longer on the team, he should get WR2 snaps on the outside. In Week 6, Bryant was on the field for a season-high 72 percent of the Raiders' WR snaps. Only a bet on the come in Week 8 while owing Fantasy owners a ton of money over the last year and a half. Don't dismiss as he has big play and scoring ability.