NFL Week 9 - QB Report (DFS)

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Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, SEA (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,600)

Over the past two games, Wilson failed to live up to his projected value leading to short games in Fantasy points (17.75 and 17.50) while remaining a top-three QB option in 2019. Wilson posted his top two games of the season at home (457 combined yards with four TDs and 300 combined yards and four TDs). Tampa improved vs. QBs in their previous two games (19.65 and 21.65 FPPG), pushing them to 27th in QB defense. The Bucs played well against the run (3.0 yards per carry) with a poor three-game stretch on their 2019 resume vs. QBs (1,198 passing yards and ten TDs). This game should be played with a lot of ball in the air, leading to Wilson being one of the top QB plays on the main slate.

Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,100)

Two weeks ago, Rodgers ranked 17th in QB scoring. After his success over his last two starts (48.05 and 30.15 Fantasy points), he moved to sixth in the NFL with an average of 24.01 Fantasy points in four-point TD leagues. The key to his jump in value in Week 7 and Week 8 was the production of his RBs in the passing games (20/275/5). A healthy Davante Adams would add follow-through to his path. Adams has a chance to play this week. In his first two road games, Rodgers delivered two short outings (203/1 and 235/1). The Chargers rank sixth in QB defense with six of their eight opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. The only team to have success from the QB position was Deshaun Watson (351/3). I expect a step back in value for Rodgers in their matchup, even if Adams plays.

Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,900)

The lack of a scoring threat at RB forces the Lions to score most of their TDs via the pass. Stafford worked his way to fifth in QB scoring after back-to-back solid games (364/4 and 342/3). Over seven starts, he has four games with three TDs or more and three games with over 300 yards passing. Most of the damage has come at home (1,225 passing yards and 12 TDs in four games). The Raiders fell to 31st in QB defense after struggled vs. Deshaun Watson (335/3) and Aaron Rodgers (434/6) over the previous two games. Their other disaster showing came on Week 2 vs. Patrick Mahomes (443/4). Oakland allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 19 TDs in seven games. Like the matchup, but a trip on the road vs. a team that wants to run the ball may lead to the shorter side of the time of possession battle. I like the Lions’ receiving options.

Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,800)

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Cousins threw the ball well last week (285 yards with an 88.5 percent completion rate), but he failed to deliver a TD while the Vikings came up short in scoring TDs. Over the previous four games, he passed for 1,262 yards and ten TDs with an exceptional completion rate (78.4). This season Cousins still hasn’t attempted over 36 passes in a game thanks to a great run game while pushing his yards per pass attempt to a league-high (9.3 yards). The Chiefs ranks 22nd in QB defense, with two teams having success (HOU – 322/3 and GB – 334/3). Kansas City allows 7.2 yards per pass attempt with QBs only tossing 11 TDs. The Vikings run the ball well, and the Chiefs have risk in close vs. RBs. The matchup works if Delvin Cook doesn’t steal his scoring chances. On the positive side, Adam Thielen should play this week.

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700)

Allen sits 12th in QB scoring after falling short of expectations in his two previous games (23.30 and 19.90 Fantasy points) at home. His value in the season-long games has been in a tight range (19.95 to 24.75 Fantasy points) in six of his seven games. Allen is well behind his 2018 success (89/631/8) in the run game (53/235/3) with no runs over 20 yards (eight in 2018). The Redskins held QBs to fewer than 17.0 Fantasy points in four of their previous five games, lifting them to 18th in QB defense. Over the first five games, Washington gave up three TDs in four contests with the Eagles (313/3) and the Cowboys (338/3) having the most success. His higher salary and his recent shortcomings may lead to the game we expected two weeks ago.

Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,500)

Winston enters Week 9 as the seventh-ranked QB (22.83 FPPG) paired with two of the top four WRs (Chris Godwin – 47/705/6 and Mike Evans – 38/662/6). Despite his appeared success, Winston has 14 TDs and 12 Ints while averaging 296 passing yards per game. His completion rate (53.2) has been feeble in his previous three games. Winston played at a high level in two games (380/3 and 385/4). Seattle fell to 23rd in QB defense (22.91 FPPG) with no QB posting an impact game. No QB has over one passing TD over the past five games. The Seahawks allowed three high-level games in passing yards (418, 395, and 460). Seattle does have risk vs. the run (4.9 yards per rush) with nine rushing TDs allowed over the previous seven games. His WRs will help his attraction, plus Seattle should play from the lead.

Sam Darnold, NYJ (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,300)

Over his three games back in the starting lineup, Darnold passed for 642 yards with four TDs and eight Ints with strength in his completion rate in two games (71.9 and 70.0). His only game of value came in Week 6 (338/2). Last week Darnold suffered a sprained left thumb that he expects to play through. The Jaguars sit 17th in QB defense (20.43 FPPG) with five of their previous seven games scoring fewer than 19.0 Fantasy points. Jacksonville struggled in Week 1 (378/3). Plenty of trust issues with the first step coming from the RB position. Avoid for me.

Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,400)

The Eagles played four of their previous five games on the road, Wentz passed for under 200 yards in three of those games and a fourth at home. In each of his failed games, he averaged 26.5 pass attempts per game. His only game of value came in Week 1 (313/3) while doing a nice job on the road vs. a good Vikings’ defense (306/2). The Bears rank 7th in QB defense (17.38 FPPG), with six teams scoring under 20.0 Fantasy points. Their one disaster game (32.25 Fantasy points) came in Week 7 vs. the Saints with some damage arising from Taysom Hill as a receiver. Boring option while lacking any big play options. There is a chance that DeSean Jackson plays this week.

Jacoby Brissett, IND (DK – $5,600/FD – $7,300)

After a great game in Week 7 (326/4), Brissett struggled to find open WRs against the Broncos (202/0). In four of his seven games, he passed for fewer than 210 yards. Brissett averages 15.7 FPPG in DraftKings scoring on the road compared to 22.45 at home. The Steelers worked their way to 10th in QB defense after holding QBs to 21.0 Fantasy points or fewer in five straight contests. Pittsburgh allows 7.3 yards per pass attempts with QBs tossing 12 TDs in seven games. Easy fade.

Derek Carr, OAK (DK – $5,500/FD – $7,300)

The Raiders’ offense continues to have flashes of upside over the last month with the RB and the TE positions flashing the most upside. Over the two previous two games, Carr passed for 614 yards with six TDs. He has a developing top TE plus his top WR returned from an injury last week. His completion rate (72.1) is at a career-high level along with his yards per pass attempt (7.7). Even with success passing the ball, Carr averaged only 30 passes per game over the previous month. The Lions struggled vs. QBs in the last two games (337/4 and 322/4), which wasn’t helped by their top QB being injured. Detroit allows over 300 yards passing per game with QBs tossing 14 TDs. There is an attraction here, but the Raiders may have more success in scoring via the run game.

Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,100)

A couple of turnover by Tampa led to a couple of short drives for TDs by the Titans and limited the passing options for Tannehill. He finished with three TDs and 193 yards passing, which left him about 107 yards short of an impact score. Over the previous three games, Tannehill completed 73.1 percent of his passes with 649 yards and five TDs. The Panthers are 8th in the NFL defending QBs (18.44 FPPG) with no QB scoring over 28.0 Fantasy points. More of a run game for both teams.

Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,800)

Allen lost his winning luster last week when facing a top improving defense. He passed for only 158 yards with no TDs and three Ints against San Fran. Over his previous four games, Allen averaged only 9.65 FPPG in DraftKings scoring with only three TDs. He’ll have another game to prove his worth before Cam Newton becomes a factor in the QB decision in Carolina. The Titans slipped to 14th in QB defense (19.38 FPPG) after fading vs. QBs in the last two games (329/2 and 301/2). A home game works in his favor, along with a chance at a passing TD to his stud RB. More of a 250/2 guy unless the Titans find a way to be more productive in the passing game, creating a high battle on the scoreboard.

Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,100/FD – $7,200)

Heading into Week 9, Mayfield still doesn’t have a hit in the Fantasy market. He has no game with more than one TD while extending his streak to eight games with an interception. His two games with over 300 yards passing (325/1 and 342/1) both came on the road. His completion rate (57.6) remains a liability. Denver worked their way to third in QB defense (13.23 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 19.0 Fantasy points in each game. All signs point to avoid, but this is the wonderful world of the NFL where locks turn into loses more than expected. Based on his salary and his pair of outside WRs, I’ll put him in the expect the grain column with a chance to surprise.

Philip Rivers, LAC (DK – $5,100/FD – $7,200)

Rivers drifted back to 18th in QB scoring (19.68 FPPG) after a down game (201/1) vs. the Bears. He’s passed for over 300 yards in five contests, but Rivers only has one game of value (333/3) in the Fantasy market. Green Bay is 9th in QB defense (18.66 FPPG) with a couple of down games (DAL – 490/3 and OAK – 329/3) over their previous four games. LA fired their offensive coordinator this week, which might light a fire in their offense. Right kind of QB while facing a team that should score. Priced to be in the mix in Week 8.

Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,500)

In his five starts this year, Trubisky averages 217 passing yards per game with only one TD per game. He has no game of value with regression as a runner (9/31). His completion rate (64.5) is a tick below 2018 (66.6) while gaining only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. The Eagles worked their way to 21st in QB defense (22.59 FPPG) while showing plenty of risk on their 2019 resume (WAS – 380/3, ATL – 320/3, GB – 422/2, and MIN – 333/4). The Eagles have risk at CB, but they did get a couple of their starter back on the field over the previous two weeks. This ugly duckling did win three lucky Fantasy owners a million dollars in 2018, so take a flier.

Mason Rudolph, PIT (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,800)

After a slow start in Week 8, Rudolph worked their way to 251 yards and two TDs while making his top two WRs relevant in the Fantasy market. Over about four games of action, he has nine TDs and three Ints with low value in passing yards (897). The Colts are about league average in QB defense (19.72 FPPG) with their worst showing coming in Week 1 (333/3). Indy has risk vs. the run, which points to success on the ground by the Steelers’ RBs. More steady than explosive.

Matt Moore, KC (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,500)

In his first start for the Chiefs, Moore passed for 267 yards and two TDs with five completions over 20 yards. With another 33 yards and a third TD, his Fantasy bucket would have offered an edge. The Chiefs averages 321 passing yards per game with 18 passing TDs. The Vikings are 11th in QB defense (19.00 FPPG) with one disaster game (DET – 364/4). Minnesota allows 6.8 yards per pass attempt with 14 TDs. The Vikings will score in this game with success in their run defense. For the Chiefs to win, they will need to throw the ball. Buy the offensive talent here even in what looks like a downtick matchup.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $4,800/FD – $7,100)

In his previous two starts on the road, Fitzpatrick passed for 472 yards with three TDs and three Ints. On the year, he gains 6.5 yards per pass attempt with only five TDs and seven Ints. The Jets fell to 16th in QB defense (20.41 FPPG) with their biggest struggle coming last week (279/3). QBs only have nine TDs vs. New York with two teams passing for over 300 yards (CLE – 325/1 and NE – 320/2). Miami should play better at home. The Dolphins only have seven TDs on 76 possession in 2019.