I am including the SNF game in my analysis this week (FanDuel related) because I love a couple plays in that game... So just remove those guys for DK purposes.
WEATHER ... as of Saturday morning
There's quite a few games with rain and or wind in them
- Falcons @ Jets - Windy and rain, not that cold though.
- Panthers @ Bucs - 20+ mph winds
- 49ers @ Eagles - Rain
- Raiders @ Bills - 41 and light rain
- Cowboys @ Redskins - 60 and rain
The one game that appears to be dodging it is the Chargers @ Patriots, which looks like it will just be overcast and in the mid 60's. Fantastic weather there. That and the dome games obviously....
49ers @ Eagles (-12.5) ... The Eagles are heavily favored in this game coming off the MNF beating of the Redskins and the whole world is jocking Carson Wentz now. It's reached peak-hype level and there's multiple factors why you shouldn't considerer Wentz this week. He has lots of things that can go wrong for him in DFS this week.
- The 49ers terrible rush defense from 2016 (with Bowman gone) has returned, combined with the rain this screams rushing game for the Eagles
- Jason Peters went down for the season at the start of the third quarter on MNF. The Eagles o-line will take a big hit because of this and with this being the first game without Peters there's zero reason for them to drop Wentz back 35 times.
- How are the 49ers going to score more than 20 points? They're not. The Eagles front 7 is dominant and outside of the Eagles coming out flat (which I think they will following the MNF game) and giving the 49ers a short field, this should be a back and forth sloppy game.
So bottom line is. Wentz's upside isn't there. I don't see a correlation with the 49ers on the other side and if it does hit, he's supposedly going to be the highest owned guy? But with no obvious correlation (You want Alshon Jeffrey? Really? Fine. Take his 47 yards and a TD. big deal). The guys who I think do produce in this game are Carlos Hyde and Wendell Smallwood, but this is a game I want no part of.
Plays from this game: None
Raiders vs Bills (-2.5) ... This game looks great on the surface and despite the Raiders flying west to east for a 1pm game, they're the side that I prefer. The cold temps and rain though do scare me a little bit off the Raiders passing attack which is where I want to lean on because I said last week (and was right) and firmly believe that the Bills defense is starting to be exposed as the season moves on. Sean McDermott was able to get good results early but Carr should shred this secondary if the rain doesn't impact the game flow.
Plays from this game: Carr, Crabtree, Jared Cook, Shady McCoy, Jordan Matthews
Chargers vs Patriots (-7.5) ... The weather is the big deal here. If the 64 and cloudy forecast holds compared to the other games then it's hard not to want some exposure to Philip Rivers against the Pats secondary. I am believing that what we saw last week was more an indication on the Falcons offense than it was the Pats defense improving and without Hightower going forward they should remain among the bottom defenses in the league. I love Allen getting a ton of targets from Rivers and Gordon stealing a few touchdowns from Rivers because... Well, why not.... In the end though, Stephen Gostkowski likely kicks 6 field goals to beat the Chargers on a field goal -- because that's just how it works for the Chargers. The Bolts defense is for real and improving and thus I don't want Brady and his weapons that much.
Plays from this game: Rivers, Gordon, Allen, Tyrell Williams, Hogan, Gostkowski
Colts vs Bengals (-11) ... If you have seen the Bengals play this year, you know they shouldn't be favored by 11 against anyone. So don't be stupid here. The Bengals should roll this game, but that doesn't mean that they're going to score 50 points. I want no part of Andy Dalton and AJ Green as chalk in a matchup where they should run the ball a ton. I predict that Dalton throws it less than Mitch Trubisky this week and the plays here are the Bengals running backs -- specifically Joe Mixon -- who will be popular but is one of my top running back plays all around this week. Bengals defense is definitely in play given how many sacks the Colts are giving up.
Plays from this game: Mixon, Tyler Kroft, Bengals D
Bears vs Saints (-10) ... Two things of note here. John Fox has coached against the Saints (& Sean Payton specifically) a ton. He knows all of Payton's tendancies. Vic Fangio was the D coordinator in San Francisco when the Saints and 49ers had some epic battles earlier in the decade and while he had better defenses there, he managed to shutdown the Saints rushing attack and gave Brees some fits. The item of note here is that Larry Warford is out for the Saints which is a big hit to their stretch run game. I believe Brees is going to throw it a TON in this game but that doesn't mean he's going to throw for 5 touchdowns. It wouldn't shock me to see Brees finish with around 350 yards but only two passing touchdowns this week. The Bears will get some yards here and there, but I don't believe it's gonna be a GPP winning upside to play them. The Saints defense at home is going to play fast and aggressive and it will be a good PPR week for Zach Miller and Tarik Cohen.
Plays from this game: Brees, Kamara, Thomas, Cohen, Miller, Lutz, Saints D
Panthers vs Bucs (-2) ... Since when is it WINDY in Tampa? WTF? I loved this game for points and then the weather has me concerned with these knucklehead Quarterbacks. This is a good tournament upside game if you wanna not watch football at all and check your lineups around 9pm... Winston and Cam are not playing good football but easily could rush a TD in and just decide to get into a complete shootout. But a Bucs defensive touchdown is going to happen this week for sure.
Plays from this game: Cam-Benjamin, Winston-Evans-DJax, Bucs D
Falcons (-1.5) vs Jets ... The Falcons will bounce back and it will be their defense that steps up this week. I think the game ends being close, Julio Jones gets his yards and Devonta Freeman gets the yards in the second half and the Falcons win 23-17.... But the sneaky play here is Austin Hooooper.... shhhhhh!
Plays from this game: Julio Jones and .... shhhhhh Austin Hooper shhhhhh... Austin Hooper 2 TD week... shhhhhhh!
Texans vs Seahawks (-1.5) ... Russel Wilson should have had a huge game last week with Jimmy Graham but the ole dropsies destroyed that. That said, Wilson still put up good numbers and is being looked at again this week for a nice afternoon hammer however I am not as high on him this week as I was last week. The upside for Wilson rushing and the Texans poor secondary play makes it a nice tournament play and I do think Watson will keep the Texans in the game, however ultimately the kickers are going to decide this game.
Plays from this game: Wilson, Baldwin, Seahawks D
Cowboys (-2) vs Redskins ... Love, Love, Love this game. Except.................. that damn weather. FedEx field will turn into a mud put and I believe that Washington is going to LOAD up the box and dare Dak to beat them (which is dangerous considering their secondary right now).... Zeke is still a ok cash play because of his volume each week but the passing attacks on both sides is where I want. If the rain looks REALLY bad then I may limit exposure but coming into this week with all things equal, this is the best game for me. The sneaky plays here are Terrance Williams getting a garbage/bs touchdown that should have went to someone else and was negated due to penalty (oh, its happening) and .... and ........... and......................... Terrelle Pryor fricken resurrecting himself. Remember when I noted that Cooper was in play last Mon-Thursday slate? How'd that work? Nice. Then Jordan Reed was the play MNF... How'd that work? Nice. Now it's time for Pryor to piss off everyone who drafted him (like a donkey) an then dropped him (smart)... Yes. Pryor sucks. He should never have been a high fantasy draft pick. But this week, he will shine. Doctson is an injury waiting to happen and the Redskins aren't going to keep Pryor on the sidelines despite his drops. He's my 1% owned MME pick this week to go off... (weather permitting)..... Both TE's are also definitely in play here.
Plays from this game: Dak, Cousins, Williams, Pryor, Witten, Reed
Steelers (-2.5) vs Lions .... Great late night hammer game on FanDuel but the Lions depleted wide receivers remove some of the DFS appeal for this game. LevBell on turf is just too juicy to pass up, so he's my main play with Prater on the other side for the Lions.
Plays from this game: Bell, Prater
Here's my positional rankings for this week
- Philip Rivers ... I am deathly afraid of the Melvin Gordon vulture but given Rivers price and the fact that I don't see any other QB having a huge touchdown week I really like Rivers in cash
- Kirk Cousins ... Im gonna wait to see how bad the rain looks, but Cousins at home at possible lower ownership in a game that I think is a shootout? Love it.
- Drew Brees ... See above. He'll get the volume and won't burn you this week but likely not a guy to force in for tournaments.
- Cam Newton ... He sucks. He's not good at football. This is the final chance for you Cam. The Bucs defense is atrocious (yes, they'll get a TD), but I love this game to go back and forth.
- Dak Prescott ... Lower owned than Cousins with just as much upside.
- Derek Carr ... I hate the weather, love the matchup. The weather is why he is lower down this list.
FADES - Dalton, Wentz
- Le'Veon Bell ... Lock and load on FanDuel
- Joe Mixon ... He's a near lock for me in cash games but I don't see him having a HUGE game because of limited snaps. That said, it doesn't take much for him tor each value this week.
- Shady McCoy ... DK pivot off LevBell
- Christian McCaffrey ... Mostly just in the gamestack lineups
- Alvin Kamara ... I'm always Kamara, next question.
- Wendell Smallwood ... Longshot tournament play on DK because if I am right that Philly starts slow then he'll get involved more to help them right the ship.
- Tarik Cohen ... Correlation play with Brees.
FADES - Blount, Zeke (worked out so well last week, lets do it again ... *eye roll*)
- Mike Evans
- Keenan Allen
- Doug Baldwin
- Michael Thomas
- Julio Jones
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Michael Crabtree
- Tyrell Williams
- Terrance Williams
- Terrelle Pryor
- Antonio Brown - Wow. AB contrarian on FD? Yep....
- Chris Hogan
FADE: AJ Green
- Hunter Henry - Leaped up to #1 for me with the weather.
- Austin Hooper - Shhh... The Jets were terrrrible vs TE last year and quietly are bad again this year.... Shhhhh....
- Jason Witten - Safe and Skins bad vs TE
- Zach Miller - Saints are back to ignoring the TE's.....
- Jared Cook
- Jimmy Graham
- Stephen Gostkowski
- Wil Lutz
- Matt Prater
- Randy Bullock
- Mitch Trubisky outscores Dalton
- Joe Mixon does just okay, nothing huge. But hits his value.
- Terrelle Pryor outscored AJ Green
- Bucs Defense scores
- Gostkowski nails a ton of field goals