The Ambush – NFL Week 17 DFS Plays from Steve Renner
Welcome to Week 17 of the NFL DFS Ambush, where I will dive into the Main Slate NFL DFS plays that I am looking at using the most this week. WHAT ARE THE AMBUSH PLAYS? These are my favorite stand out plays of the week and the players that I am the highest on to pair with the MAIN plays. In some cases, they're locks in cash, in some cases they're locks in my high dollar tournament plays of the week and in other cases they might be a stack play that is going in one of my top 3 lineups.
PLAYOFFS NEXT WEEK!!!!!!!!!!! Save bankroll for the larger $ Single Entry contests on the small playoff slates. They're good!
WEEK 17 UPDATES (SUNDAY MORNING)
This trumps anything written below
- Snow in Buffalo ... This really means nothing other than for entertainment purposes, you'll want to watch the Dolphins and Bills. Love Josh Allen still.
- Questions on Antonio Brown and James Connor have me thinking the Steelers are going to play this as if they can beat the Bengals with their defense and not press guys hoping that the Browns win and they can steal a week of rest going into next week. Dangerous move, but the Steelers D to me is creeping up as the sneaky play in this game above all else.
- Davante Adams is a ? still..... If he is out then I am off this game entirely.
WEEK 17 OVERVIEW - 15 Game Slate
- Weather looks OK for the most part. Just cold
- Only two high total games but only one game under 40
DFS Theme of the Week
Pick your poison .... There's basically three mindsets for building a lineup this week in my mind
- A) Try to be perfect across the board and build that "optimal" lineup that mixes and matches guys in good opportunity spots where theyre filling in for someone else and then the guys in good motivation spots as well.
- B) Pick your favorite game and game stack it building off that most games will be lower scoring
- C) Take the safest plays in 70% of your lineup and then mix in a longshot play or two and pray for that huge game from a near min priced guy filling in.
TEAMS TO AVOID
Dolphins ... They're done and won't show up vs Bills
Jets ... Coach about to get fired and will get thumped by the Pats
Panthers ... Who? CMC? No reason for him to play long in this game
Jaguars ... I like their defense, but dont be stupid with Bortles. Low scoring game IMO
Cowboys ... They're gonna rest everyone and get game over quickly
Raiders ... They lose by 30
Cardinals ... See Raiders
Redskins ... They're horrible
THE AMBUSH PICKS
This week I'm looking to identify some CORE builds, which basically end up looking like stacks but that's mostly because the thought pattern is that Im looking for the combination of talent+matchup+game flow only to lock in on these core builds. Any of the so called "value" or "sneaky" plays for me will be one offs that mix in with these CORE builds.
Kansas City Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes and Kelce or Hill along with Damien Williams*
They're going to kill the Raiders at home who are not good offensively away from Oakland are are coming off a MNF game (On X-Mas eve) where they basically played what we call "Their Super Bowl" winning in what could be the final game in Oakland. Travis Kelce murdered the Raider a few weeks back and Tyreek Hill as cold as he has been from his hot start is in another prime spot this week, but we gotta look at Patrick Mahomes who will deinitely be looking to maybe pad some stats to re-ignite his MVP candidacy (side note: this is actually a stupid f'n reason to play a guy, he's not worried about his stats, but hey it sounds good). None the less, I don't think the Chiefs will suddenly hold up and start resting guys at half time even if theyre up 28-0. Expect Mahomes to account for three TD this week.
Damien Williams is still on my radar even if Spencer Ware is a full go as I dont expect KC to completely go off Williams who has looked good filling in.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, Austin Hooper
On paper this SHOULD be the highest scoring game on the slate. Neither team has anything at running back and neither defense to me has the tools to stop the other teams passing game. The biggest hiccup is actually Dirk Koetter saying that he might not let Jameis Winston play the entire game. C'mon man, just let the guy have one final game before the organization cans both of you. Either way, this is a game in good weather and doesn't seem to be as popular as it should be in the passing game for the highest close game total on the board this week. I love Chris Godwin with DJax out and think Calvin Ridley has a huge game this week for Atlanta.
Lamar Jackson, Gus Edwards, Ravens DEF
Earlier this season they played a quiet, boring 12-9 game but now we have the late season surging Browns coming in playing well and confident against Baltimore who simply needs towin and they're the AFC North Champs. Easy Ravens win? Not so fast, I think Cleveland will hang around somewhat but more specifically I think the Ravens are going to be forced to play the full four quarters here and put the pressure on and the best way to beat the Browns is on the ground -- where Baltimore loves to thrive. Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards (who is still out carrying Dixon) would be the two guys to mini stack and I don't mind pairing them both with the Ravens D.
Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers
Stafford-Galladay-TJ Jones vs Rodgers-Adams-MVS
I dont like either running game between these two teams which puts us into a must pass mode with Stafford and Rodgers in who gives less of a crap spot. Could be a nice battle between these long time NFC North gun slingers who always have atleast one big game each year. Stafford's always done well in Green Bay too, so there's something about him in Lambeau that brings out the best. TJ Jones seems to be his next man up with all the WR changes over the course of the season and I could see him having a solid day this weekend against the poor GB secondary.
For the Packers, Davante Adams needs about 134 yards to set a Packer receiving record so you can be assured Rodgers will be airing it out and with St. Brown and Cobb limited/injured we can turn back to MVS for more value this week. Good game to stack on both sides.
THE POSITIONAL RANKINGS
- Patrick Mahomes ... If you have value at RB then just go safe with Mahomes IMO
- Lamar Jackson ... 100 yards rushing on DK is a nice bonus that I expect this week, huge game for Lamar IMO.
- Aaron Rodgers / Matt Stafford
- Josh Allen ... Playing well for DFS terms and this is a weak match-up in my mind this week. Pair him with Zay Jones or Jason Croom for passing TD's but it the rushing yards we really want.
- Saquon Barkley ... Best STUD to pay up for this week. Should play whole game and vs Dallas D that is resting.
- Chris Carson ... Carson could be pulled if Seattle doesn't care much about seeding, but he should carve up Arizona at home.
- Gus Edwards ... Mentioned him above with Ravens ground game. Worry about him splitting with Dixon though
- James Conner ... Assuming he plays he would be the main RB for Pitt this week.
- CJ Anderson ... Dont expect as dominant as last week, but still a good spot.
- Sony Michel ... White vs Michel, should lean on Michel this week for Pats and rest White for playoffs
Value Longshots: Rod Smith and Dwayne Washington - Both will see more time than they have all season, but that doesn't translate into huge days. Lots of value all over the place this week, so we dont have to go down this low
- Davante Adams ... Going for Packers receiving record
- DeAndre Hopkins ... The only man here for Watson to rely on.
- Ju-Ju Smith-Schuster ... With AB gimpy JJSS should eat
- Tyreek Hill ... GPP stack play with Mahomes and Kelce
- Calvin Ridley ... Love Ridley and Godwin together in many lineups this week.
- Chris Godwin ... Love him with Ridley.
- Keith Kirkwood
- TJ Jones
- Marques Valdes-Scantling / Randall Cobb
- Josh Reynolds
- Austin Hooper ... Value spot vs the Bucs in high scoring game
- Zach Ertz ... Owns the Redskins
- Travis Kelce ... Eats vs Raiders and at home
- Evan Engram ... Has really come on with OBJ sitting and should continue that this week.
- Jason Croom ... Value play for Buffalo to attack a dead Dolphins team
- Seahawks - Love them but don’t mind paying down w Eagles who basically have a home game