NHL DFS: The Point Shot - 10/30

robgeriak

Top Goalies

Joonas Korpisalo (CBJ)

Korpi has won each of his last three starts despite allowing four goals in each contest. I don't see him allowing four goals tonight but I do see him picking up a win. Korpi has seen at least 37 shots in each of his last three starts and while I don't see him hitting that mark tonight, I don't think that 31-34 shots is out of the question.

Jaroslav Halak (BOS)

Speaking of a lot of shots, the Hurricanes average the most shots per game of any team in the league. Halak has been very good, although he hasn't seen as many shots against him as Gibson has. With that being said, Halak comes in at a great value on DK tonight in a game that the Bruins should win. Look for Halak to easily pay off his salary and for his upside to be aided by the Canes' propensity to shoot the puck.

Martin Jones (SJ)

If we're going win hunting, Jones looks to be in a great spot to pick up a W. The Rangers come to town having lost each of Jones' last three starts in San Jose. The Sharks are heavy favorites and Jones looks to be a solid option between the pipes.

Ryan Miller (ANA)

I would've preferred the Ducks to start John Gibson but naturally, that won't be the case. Either way, Miller is in a good spot against a floundering Flyers team at home. The Ducks are allowing 39.1 shots per game, second-most of any team in the league ideally providing Miller with plenty of opportunities to rack up a good number in this spot.

Others to consider: Antti Raanta (ARI), Juuse Saros (NSH)

Key three Skaters

Jack Eichel (BUF)

Eichel and the Sabres host the Flames tonight in what shapes up to be a good matchup for Jack. The Flames have allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers this season, including 15 goals, 27 assists, and 115 shots in 11 games. Jack, who has points in three of his last four games with 17 shots over that span should take advantage of the Flames who are playing their second road game in as many nights and their third game in four night overall.

Evander Kane (SJ)

Left-wingers have killed the Rangers for years and so has speed coming up either wing. This year is no different with Kane blazing up the left wing for the Sharks in what looks to be a nightmare for the Rangers. Against left-wingers, the blue-shirts have allowed the second-most fantasy points including 15 goals in 11 games with 86 shots. This is a good spot for Kane to get back on track scoring goals as he hasn't lit the lamp in any of his previous seven games while owning the fifth-best individual Corsi-for per 60 minutes (23.42) among NHL forwards. It's not the most ideal scenario having Kane on the third line and second power-play unit, but he should still get enough opportunity tonight.

Artemi Panarin (CBJ)

The Red Wings are familiar with Panarin and his ability, primarily from when he was a member of the Blackhawks. Overall in eight games against Detroit, Panarin has six goals, seven assists, and 29 shots. This season the Red Wings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to left-wingers and Panarin comes into this game in good form with six points in his last two games, including two goals in his last effort.

Favorite Line Stacks

Blue Jackets First Line

Artemi Panarin - Pierre-Luc Dubois - Cam Atkinson

Unfortunately, I was too stubborn to go here the other night when they faced Buffalo, but I won't make that mistake again. I touched on Panarin above and how good he's been against Detroit. Cam Atkinson has points in each of his last three games and looks to be in good shape to continue his streak against the Red Wings who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to right-wingers. Pierre-Luc Dubois centers this line and comes in at a nice value in a good matchup with the Red Wings having allowed 12 goals and 27 assists to centers over their first 11 games. The 21-year-old pivot has two goals and two assists in his last two games and the Jackets as a team come in with 12 goals in their last two games and average 3.60 per game on the season.

Penguins First Line

Jake Guentzel - Sidney Crosby - Bryan Rust

This is simply built around Crosby and his numbers against the Islanders. In 62 games against the Isles, Crosby has 34 goals, 74 assists, and 207 shots. Bryan Rust is a nice player here at a good value and Jake Guentzel has three points in his last three games, but this is all about Crosby and the value you around him benefiting.

Sharks Second Line

Tomas Hertl - Logan Couture - Kevin Labanc

I love Couture here with Hertl as the Sharks have swapped lines around based on the return of Joe Thornton. Couture and Hertl work well together and both get power play time; Couture on the top unit and Hertl on the second. Labanc fits in as a good value option to fill out this stack in a game that the Sharks should generate plenty of scoring chances.

Devils First Line

Hall - Hischier - Palmieri

This line has been clicking on all cylinders to this point and show no signs of slowing down. Nico Hischier has three goals and three assists in his last four games while Taylor Hall has points in seven straight games with two goals and eight assists over that span. Kyle Palmieri has been on another level since the start of the season with eight goals and five assists in eight games. The Devils will be looking to avenge a first-round exit in the Stanley Cup Playoffs last season courtesy of the Lightning in this matchup.

Top Poisitional Plays

These are players not included in "key three" and "favorite line stacks" sections.

Center

Connor McDavid (EDM) - Has goals in four straight games with four or more shots in each contest.

Evgeni Malkin (PIT) - His scoring ability is unquestionable, but he's been distributing the puck at an extremely high level this season ranking third among forwards in primary assists per 60 minutes with 2.60.

Sean Monahan (CGY) - The matchup is great against the team allowing the second-most fantasy points to centers. The back-to-back road games and three games in four nights factor is the only thing that concerns me.

Ryan Johansen (NSH) - Always tough to ignore him centering a great line with Viktor Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg. Pairing Johansen with one of those wingers in the approach I would take in cash games. RyJo has six assists in his last three games.

Derek Stepan (ARI) - He brings some value against the Sens who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to centers with 18 goals and 16 assists.

Joe Thornton (SJ) - He's back tonight skating on the first line and top power-play unit. He's priced at just $4,500 on DK and $5,500 on FD bringing good value to the center spot.

Wing

Timo Meier (SJ) - Meier has the fifth-most high danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (8.1) and the most overall individual scoring chances per 60 minutes (14.90) among forwards with at least 100 minutes of ice time. He slots in on the first line and second power-play unit. Good play as a one-off or paired up with Joe Thornton at even strength.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (EDM) - Pair him up with McDavid.

Phil Kessel (PIT) - Great chemistry with Evgeni Malkin and also fine as a one-off. The Isles have allowed the second-most fantasy points to right-wingers and Kessell has three goals in his last three games and averages 2.69 goals per 60 minutes, fifth among forwards.

Jeff Skinner (BUF) - Calgary has allowed 11 goals and 11 assists to left-wingers in 11 games. The streaky Skinner has five goals in his last five games and is a good piece to pair with Jack Eichel.

Brendan Gallagher (MTL) - Maybe one of the more underrated scorers in the league. Gallagher averages 2.06 goals per 60 minutes, 11.68 shots per 60 minutes, and 6.18 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes. All rank in the top 25 among forwards.

Filip Forsberg (NSH) - On fire with five goals in his last three games and works in as a good pairing with Johansen.

David Pastrnak (BOS) - I don't love Boston as a team tonight because Carolina generally limits opponents shots, but Pasta has had success against them of late with three goals and three assists in his last three outings against them.

Anders Lee (NYI) - Lee has points in each of his last four games with two goals and six assists over that span to go along with 10 shots. In what has been a good matchup for him in the past, Lee has four goals in his last six games against the Penguins.

Craig Smith (NSH) - On the same level as Gallagher as an underrated forward. He's just $4,500 on DK, averages 7.57 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes, 12.62 shots per 60 minutes (both of which are top-10 among forwards), and sees power-play time on the top unit.

Patric Hornqvist (PIT) - Good value play as a one-off in what expects to be a high-scoring game. Horn has four goals in his last three games with 11 shots over that span. He should have plenty of opportunities down low, where he generally makes a living in front of the net, against the undersized Islanders defense.

Micheal Ferland (CAR) - $5,600 on DK and $5,200 on FD and is having an un-noticed start to the season. He averages the most high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes (9.11) and sixth-most shots per 60 minutes (13.49) among forward. Ferland also has four goals in his last six games and skates on the Hurricanes' top power-play unit.

Josh Bailey (NYI) - Bailey went through a long stretch last season where he was essentially a point-per-game player. As of now, Bailey has been just that with 11 points in 10 games and is currently riding a five-game point streak (one goal, six assists). He's not a high-volume shooter, but he finds a way to make plays as a distributor often and is a great value on DK ($4,900) and on FD ($5,700).

Defense

Oscar Klefbom (EDM) - The Wild, playing in their second game of a back to back and their third game in four nights have allowed 22 points to defensemen in 11 games, along with the second-most shots to the position on the season. Klefbom has been a force offensively over his last seven games with four assist, which is modest, but his 24 shots over that span are magnified in this matchup. He's also chipped in with nine blocked shots and is seeing a ton of minutes.

Seth Jones (CBJ) - In three games since returning from injury, Jones has picked up right where he left last season with a goal, nine shots, and seven blocked shots while averaging 24 minutes of ice time per game. The Red Wings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to defensemen to this point.

Erik Karlsson (SJ) - If you can afford Brent Burns I can't argue with going that route. However, EK presents value, especially on DK at just $5,600 against the Rangers who have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to defensemen (four goals, 21 assists, 124 shots) in 11 games. EK has three assists, seven shots, and two blocked shots in his last three games and in his last six vs the Rangers has posted a goal, five assists, 15 shots, and 13 blocks.

Zach Werenski (CBJ) - It's a tough call deciding on Jones or Werenski in a plus matchup. Werenski does present a bit of a discount though and has points in each of his last five games with a goal, five assists, and eight shots over that span.

Kris Letang (PIT) - Letang is third among defensemen with 1.57 primary assists per 60 minutes, sixth in goals per 60 minutes (1.04), averages 7.04 shots per 60 minutes, and is fifth in ice time per game with 25:33.

Dougie Hamilton (CAR) - He's a big offensive threat on Carolina's blue line averaging the most shots per 60 minutes (12.95) among defensemen.

Mark Giordano (CGY) - At least four shots in each of his last four games with three points over that span.

Sami Vatanen (NJ) - Nearly three shots and three blocked shots per game over the last two weeks and has seen at least 25 minutes of ice time in each of his last three games.

Value

Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF) - Risto is an ice hog with the only issue being that he doesn't see time on the top power-play unit. He brings great value ($4,500 on DK, $4,700 on FD) into a matchup with Calgary who have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to defensemen to this point. In his last three games, Risto has a goal, 10 shots, and three blocked shots.

Cam Fowler (ANA) - Good offensive upside with 4.26 shots per 60 minutes while also averaging the eighth-most blocked shots per 60 minutes (7.3) at the position.

Jaccob Slavin (CAR) - Great value and is productive on both ends of the ice.

Shea Theodore (VGK) - Fourth-most shots per 60 minutes (8.26) at the position while quarterbacking the top power-play unit.

Brandon Carlo (BOS) - Dirt-cheap option who sees enough ice time to warrant consideration as a dart-throw.

Ryan Ellis (NSH) - The forgotten third-man on a team with Subban and Josi, but Ellis has shown that he has offensive talent.

Mike Green (DET) - Has eight shots and an assist in his first two games of the season after missing time with an injury.

Rasmus Dahlin (BUF) - Way too cheap on DK and FD considering he's skating on the top pairing and top power-play unit. Nice play as a one-off or as part of a power-play stack with Eichel and Skinner.

GOOD LUCK!!

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