NHL DFS: The Point Shot - 11/30

robgeriak

Key Three Skaters

These are my favorite three skaters overall on the slate considering price, matchup, and recent production.

Nathan MacKinnon (COL)

This shouldn't be a surprise at this point. Mac is the highest-priced skater on both sites, but the chances of him paying off are about as high as they can get. I wouldn't overthink this one.

Sean Monahan (CGY)

I touched on Monny a bit more down below under my favorite line stacks. He's been rock solid this season with 13 goals, 13 assists, and 73 shots while scoring five of his goals on the Flames' much-improved power-play. The Kings have had trouble defending the center spot and he's enjoyed success against them of late.

Vladimir Tarasenko (STL)

Love this play on DK as a one-off. There are 11 wingers priced higher than him tonight on this five-game slate, which is outrageous. Vlad has goals in back to back games and is second among forwards with almost 13 shots per 60 minutes. Considering his shot volume, scoring ability, and salary he's my favorite one-off play of night.

Favorite Line Stacks

Avalanche First Line

Landeskog - MacKinnon - Rantanen

As usual, the 420 line keeps rolling along and their cumulative salary continues to rise. If you can get them in, they're far and away the stack to look at tonight.

Panthers First Line

Dadonov - Barkov - Hoffman

Barkov has led the charge up the middle with Dado and Hoffman of late and has good history against the Devils. In his last 10 games against them, he has six goals and three assists. Dadonov has points in three straight and the sharp-shooting Hoffman has goals in five of his last seven games and is third amongst forwards in shots per 60.

Flames First Line

Gaudreau - Monahan - Lindholm

The Kings have allowed the third-most fantasy points to centers over the last month putting Monahan, who has five points (three goals, two assists) in his last five games against them in a good spot. Gaudreau has 12 points in his last 14 games against L.A. and points in four of his last five games (three goals, five assists) overall. Lindholm, who joins Monny and Johnny on the top power-play unit has four goals and six assists on the man-advantage this season.

Value Line Stacks

Flames Second Line: Tkachuk - Backlund - Bennett

Capitals Second Line: Vrana - Eller - Connolly

Blues Second Line: Fabbri - Schenn - Thomas

Sabres Second Line: Thompson - Mittelstadt - Okposo

Top Positional Plays

Center

Ryan O'Reilly (STL) - Points in each of his last three games. Shouldn't be one of the heavily sought after options at center tonight.

Jack Eichel (BUF) - Has points in seven of his last eight games and is third overall in shots per 60 among centers. He's in play even in a tough matchup as he should see a good amount of Barkov.

Anze Kopitar (LA) - Great value on DK, has multiple points in each of his last three games with points in each of his last four overall. Over his last 14 games against the Flames, he has five goals, 11 assists, and 35 shots.

Nicklas Backstrom (WAS) - Always has good chemistry with Ovechkin as he's been manning the top line center spot in the absence of Kuznetsov.

Jeff Carter (LA) - Points in three of his last four games and has six goals in his last 10 outings against Calgary.

Nico Hischier (NJ) - Should go overlooked tonight, but he's second among centers (Tavares) in high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.

Wing

Alex Ovechkin (WAS) - Goals in five of his last six games and has seven goals, eight assists, and 53 shots in his last 13 games against New Jersey.

Taylor Hall (NJ) - He's very expensive and no one will play him tonight. Pair him up with Hischier for a low-owned mini-stack.

Jeff Skinner (BUF) - Had a down night last night but has five goals in his last five games, averages 10.71 shots per 60, and is second among forwards with 2.48 goals per 60 to only David Pastrnak.

Kyle Palmieri (NJ) - Moved down to the second line making him the top scoring threat on that line. Palmieri has no points in any of his last three games but has four goals in his last eight games against the Caps, including two in these teams' only meeting this season.

Sam Reinhart (BUF) - Seven goals and four assists with 35 shots in his last 12 against the Panthers. Over their last 13 games, the Panthers have allowed 12 goals, 18 assists, and 71 shots to right-wingers.

Tyler Toffoli (LA) - Great price on DK skating on the second line, good value mini-stack with Jeff Carter.

Justin Williams (CAR) - Three goals in his last five games and is just $4,000 on DK and $4,500 on FD.

Dustin Brown (LA) - Five goals, an assist, and 12 shots in his last three games. He has seven points in his last five games (two goals, three assists) against the Flames and skates with Kopitar on the first line and top power-play unit.

Defense

John Carlson (WAS) - The Devils have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to the position over the last four weeks. Carlson has points in four of his last five games.

Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF) - Over the last four weeks the Panthers have allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position and Risto has points in five of his last six games (0ne goal, five assists). Fairly priced on DK but too cheap on FD.

Dougie Hamilton (CAR) - Leads all defensemen with 9.22 shots per 60 minutes at even strength.

Mark Giordano (CGY) - Quietly Gio has been great on the back end ranking fifth among defensemen in points per 60 minutes at even strength. Eight of his points have come on the power play where he sees over three minutes per game (90 power-play minutes in 25 games).

Alex Pietrangelo (STL) - When combining shots and blocked shots, Pietrangelo has been one of the best this season while seeing nearly 25 minutes of ice time per game.

Brandon Montour (ANA) - Seeing increased ice-time with the injuries on the back end for the Ducks.

Value

Erik Johnson (COL)

Justin Faulk (CAR) - $4,500 on both sites is too cheap for Faulk who averages the eighth-most shots per 60 at the position in even-strength situations.

T.J. Brodie (CGY) - Has enough offensive ability (two goals, three assists over his last three) to consider using in a good matchup.

Aaron Ekblad (FLA) - More of a value on DK than FanDuel.

Sm Girard (COL) - If Tyson Barrie continues to be sidelined, Girard sees a big bump in ice time and plus-situational play.

Drew Doughty (LA) - Sees more ice-time than any other defensemen on a per-game basis.

Jaccob Slavin (CAR)

Matt Niskanen (WAS)

Top Goalies

John Gibson (ANA)

The Ducks are a bad team but without Gibson, they'd more than likely be one of the worst teams in the league. Gibson has had to stand on his head in seemingly every start. He's seen the second-most shots (717), made the second-most saves (665), and has allowed the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.52) of any goaltender with at least 16 games played. His upside is massive tonight, especially considering his $7,600 salary on DK, facing the Hurricanes who shoot more than any team in the league at right around 39 shots per game.

Semyon Varlamov (COL)

While I love Tarasenko and like O'Reilly tonight in terms of offensive production for the Blues, there hasn't been much to get excited about overall for the team from St. Louis. The Blues are just 2-5-1 on the road this season and are about middle of the pack in goals per game as a team. Varly has allowed three or fewer goals in each of his last four starts and has seen at least 29 shots in each of his last three outings. He's won five games in a row as the Avs have won each of their last six and that should continue tonight.

Mike Smith (CGY)

It's always an adventure with this guy, but Smith is priced well on FD at $7,500, a site where the win is crucial for your goaltender. He's a high-risk high-reward play, even against the Kings who average the fewest goals per game of any team. Smith, who put out a good effort in his last start is a good correlation play with a Flames line stack.

James Reimer (FLA)

This guy has fucked me sideways each of the last two times I've used him, but at home against Buffalo on a back to back, he has to be in consideration. He's just $7,000 on DK and $7,200 on FD. It might not be pretty to watch, but I would expect him to at least earn a victory tonight.

GOOD LUCK!!

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