I really prefer these five to 7 game slates and honestly I have noticed that the ownership tends to be much more spread out on nights like tonight rather than the 11 game slates when folks gravitate towards the highest team total on the board. The reason it doesn't happen on shorter slates as much oddly enough is just because when there's 10+ games there is bound to be a heavy miss match. We have some lopsided games tonight on paper as well but since there's more than one it should spread things around a bit.
The line lock needs to hit it big tonight. One goal from the line last night when the team went off is unacceptable. The Slapshot needs to bounce back big tonight, so let's kick things off at the top today with the line lock and get it out of the way.
CONTRARIAN LINE LOCK: The Butabi brothers .... Sean Monahan & Johnny Gaudreau + Elias Lindholm or Mark Giordano
I think everyone is going to shy away from the Calgary Flames top line today because of four key factors in the decision making process in single entry spots today:
- They're on a B2B
- They (Monny/Johnny) have been targets for folks quite a bit recently and have not had a Monny/Johnny type game in a while, thus burning folks
- They're more expensive than JT-Marner
- The matchup isn't quite as juicy to the naked eye as Point-Kuch
But it's still pretty damn good and I think Calgary is gonna steamroll the Devils today.
a) New Jersey is quickly trending towards the new Ottawa in that they just don't have the talent to keep up with better teams. Kyle Palmieri is going to be out for a while and I think the Devils commit far too many penalties tonight against a team who does a good job of drawing penalties in Calgary. While the Devils PK has been good, it can only be so good when its busy all night against a solid unit like Calgary has.
b) I like using centers against the Devils and Sean Monahan certainly has fared quite okay when he see's red on the other side. Monahan is riding a 5 game goal scoring streak against the Devils with 6 total goals over his last five vs the Devils.
c) Then there is the man who can win the slate himself. Johnny Gaudreau. (South) Jersey native going back to his home state where he has 1 goal and 5 assists in the last three trips there with the goal coming last year after he attended the Eagles Super Bowl parade. He'll likely have family in attendance tonight and sure, lets take a home state narrative at 10% ownership (he scored in Philly this year as well).
PP1 Exposure - Monahan, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Giordano
CHALK STACK OF THE NIGHT: John Tavares, Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman - Toronto Maple Leafs
Ya'll should know by now that I put a lot into scheduling and teams being in a rythym. The Leafs came back from a long road trip and lost their first game to the Caps (as I predicted) but since then have reeled off back to back multi-goal wins (5-3 and 6-3) over Buffalo and Montreal and will play their fourth straight home game tonight with all of them coming off a fresh days rest. So its been game-rest-game-rest-game-rest-game-rest now for the Leafs on this long home stretch and they're welcoming in an Edmonton team who yes will be getting Connor McDavid back tonight after a 2 game suspension, but is one of the better teams to target on tonights slate. I generally avoid the Leafs because both JT and AM34 tend to each produce limiting each others lines upside but the key player I am waiting to break out on this team is Mitch Marner. Marner has just 1 game in the last 5 when he recorded a point and only 2 goals since mid-January. But the chances have been there and with the Leafs being able to dictate lines tonight at home I think we'll see him light the lamp and this line will contribute 3 goals today.
Be aware -- this is a popular line stack today given their price, skills and the match-up. You're gonna see lots of JT-Marner, so if you want to play ownership fade over to other high priced studs then those definitely exist today.
VALUE COMBO / STACK: Ryan Strome (3100) - Vlad Namestnikov (3500) - Jesper Fast (2900)
The Tampa Bay Lightning have won 9 games in a row and have not had a regulation loss the entire month of February. If they can at least make it to overtime tonight then they'll finish the entire month of February with a point and a win would give them 10 in a row. LAW OF AVERAGES. Hammer the Rangers to win tonight as the upset pick of the day. Chris Kreider has goals in two straight, but would require pairing him with Zibs tonight and that's just too pricey given other options, however the Strome-Namestnikov-Fast trio on the second line, while certainly not as good too me is my favorite bargain basement priced stack or spot to pick one offs from for really cheap value that allows you to get JT-Marner-Monny-Johnny
ONE OFF STUDS ... I won't have either tonight but wanted to mention their upside as one offs if you don't do two correlations.
Nathan MacKinnon - COL - $7500 ... The price has creeped back up on Mac and with Rantanen skating with him you can understand why. Mac has a solid history versus Vancouver.
Brayden Point - TB - $7300 ... Two multi goal games in his last three trips to the Garden. Would get you exposure to Kucherov without having rolling Kuch and also able to play him as a one off with the JT-Marner chalk here tonight as well.
MID RANGE & VALUE ONE OFFS
Rickard Rakell (ANA) - $4800
J.T. Compher (COL) - $4600
Jimmy Vesey (NYR) - $3800 ... Alternative NYR punt play getting exposure to Zibs and Kreider
Mark Giordano (CGY) - $6100 ... Gio is really the only defenseman I have a lot of desire to pay up for tonight. Really like TJ Brodie though as a PP2 play for cheaper and Morgan Rielly for TOR would be a pivot with a TOR1 stack.
Darnell Nurse (EDM) - $4900 ... Top PP exposure
Damon Severson (NJD) - $4500
Neal Pionk (NYR) - $3900
Ryan Graves (COL) - $3300 ... Lots of talk about how well Graves is playing defensively and during the Avs hot streak his +/- was a solid +4 and for dirt cheap we could get him to luck into an assist at that cost as a punt defensive play on a weak D night.
There are three guys who are in really good win spots that folks will gravitate towards
- Freddie Anderson - TOR ... He is the main stud I would trust and pay for today.
- Andrei Vasilevskiy - TB ... Definite fade for me today. Going against the hottest/best goalie in the game? Yeah. I just have a horrible feeling about him tonight.
- Semyon Varlamov - COL ... Nah. This is classic Varly fall asleep and give up 2 early goals game.
I personally doubt that anyone uses Rittich for Calgary because he's $8300 which is the second highest behind Freddie tonight. But certainly I expect the Flames to win handedly, but he will see a low shot volume today.
- Ducks Goalie ... Could be Boyle, could be Gibson... Either way, Ducks G at home vs Chicago is a sneaky play today.
- ALEXANDAAAAAAAAAR the GREAT ... Yes... Alex Georgiev for the Rangers is your leverage play against Tampa chalk. No Tampa skaters? Wanna play the TOR chalk? Georgiev is your living dangerous goalie tonight.
LINE LOCK OF THE NIGHT: Monahan, Gaudreau, Giordano (CGY PP1)
ONE OFF STUD WINGER: Mitch Marner (TOR)
ONE OFF VALUE WINGER: Vlad Namestnikov (NYR)
FAVORITE DEFENSE PUNT: Ryan Graves (COL)
POSITION TO SPEND UP FOR:CENTER
POSITION TO PUNT:DEFENSE
- Rangers/Lightning UNDER 6.5
- NY Rangers ML
- Oilers/Leafs UNDER 6.5
- Maple Leafs -1.5
- Flames -1.5