2020 BMW Championship DFS Picks: Top Plays, Values and One Big Fade

The SI Golf Fantasy team of Ben Heisler, Alex White, and Mark Farris run through their favorite DFS tiers for this week’s BMW Championship, as well as their top fade of the slate.
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Previous PGA Tour Event Winners & DraftKings Salary

  • Northern Trust: Dustin Johnson ($10,400)
  • Wyndham Championship: Jim Herman ($6,100)
  • PGA Championship: Collin Morikawa ($8,600)
  • FedEx St. Jude: Justin Thomas ($10,700)
  • 3M Open: Michael Thompson ($7,000)
  • The Memorial Tournament: Jon Rahm ($9,300)
  • Workday Charity Open: Collin Morikawa ($9,200)
  • Rocket Mortgage Classic: Bryson DeChambeau ($11,700)
  • Travelers Championship: Dustin Johnson ($9,400)
  • RBC Heritage: Webb Simpson ($9,000)
  • Charles Schwab Challenge: Daniel Berger ($7,700)

$10,000+ Range

Ben Heisler: Jon Rahm ($11,000 DK/$11,800 FD)

Rahm’s recent form reminds me of when he won the Memorial. He had excellent strokes gained: total numbers in the previous event at the Workday and turned in a brilliant performance the Sunday before. His last two weeks have been his best SG: total numbers since he won the Memorial back in July, and his putter was the best it's been since the WGC-Mexico in February (4.5 SG: putting). He needs to tighten up his irons a bit, but every other part of Rahm’s game is in excellent form and he’ll be my favorite cash game play on the board, as well as my pick to win.

Mark Farris: Jon Rahm ($11,000 DK/$11,800 FD)

After he woke up last week, he went 67-65 on the weekend. His start on Sunday made it look even better. However, DJ’s play was really taking the air out of everyone’s effort levels except for those guys playing for 2nd and/or on the Top 70 bubble. He lost his #1 ranking to DJ last week so I look for him to grind.

Alex White: Dustin Johnson ($11,500 DK/ $12,000 FD)

DJ is coming off an unconscious performance and is bound to regress, right? Not so fast. DJ has won back to back events two separate times over his career. I can't recall the last time a golfer gained over twelve strokes in a tournament with their approach shots. The form is undeniable with a 2nd place finish at the PGA Championship and a massacre last weekend at the Northern Trust. You don’t play how he did and lose it in four days time. Ride the wave.

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$9,100 - $10,000

Ben Heisler: Daniel Berger ($9,700 DK / $11,200 FD)

It took DraftKings and FanDuel long enough to finally put Berger in a price range that suits his recent play. Other than missing the cut at the Memorial, Berger’s WORST finish since February 2nd has been 13th at the PGA Championship. He has seven top 10 finishes in his last nine events, including six in the top 5.

Berger gained an insane 11.5 SG: total, including 6 with his putter alone last week. I’m not expecting it to be that hot again, but if he continues to do everything else well (and his recent history indicates he will), I’ll continue to ride the hot hand and not think twice about it.

Mark Farris: Xander Schauffele ($9,900 DK/$11,800 FD)

For me, it’s between him and “Baby Yoda” (Collin Morikawa for those of you that haven’t read my stuff before). I’m giving the advantage to Xander because (1) he made the cut last week and (2) he has more experience in the Playoffs. NOTE: Don’t be surprised if Baby Yoda takes down the Empire!

Alex White: Daniel Berger ($9,700 DK/ $11,200 FD)

Can you find a more consistent golfer right now? Finishing six of his last eight tournaments in the top 5 Berger has put together the best season of his career. This all starts with rounds in the 60’s. In his last twelve rounds, ten have been in the 60’s, in that span of time his worst round is a 71. No reason to think he disappoints this week. Honestly, he’s probably got a huge chip on his shoulder right now. He still hasn’t qualified for the Masters. That’s a slap in the face. What else does he have to prove on the PGA Tour to get in?

$8,100 - $9,000

Ben Heisler: Matthew Wolff ($8,200 DK / $9,800 FD)

Wolff’s metrics remain excellent, but I think he has a slight chance to go overlooked this week considering the value available. Over his last 24 rounds, Wolff is top-five on TOur in SG: off-the-tee and is right around top 20 in SG: total as well as SG: approach.

His approach game wasn’t great at TPC Boston a week ago (-1.9 SG: APP) but he still managed to hang around. He’s typically an excellent ball-striker and is an excellent fit for the style of Olympia Fields. He was like the savvy veteran pitcher who despite not having fastball command, was still able to hang around for a quality start. I think Wolff can win this week and when he’s locked in, he can more than pay off his $8,200/$9,800 salary.

Mark Farris: Viktor Hovland ($8,100 DK/$10,000 FD)

Again, I wanted to go with Harris English as I think he is the less volatile play here. However, given that this is a no-cut event, I’m not splitting hairs between volatile and not volatile. Honestly, except for “position points”, the more volatile guy can accumulate a lot of points in 4 rounds even if he finishes between 20th and 30th.

Alex White: Tony Finau ($8,700 DK/ $10,400 FD)

If you’re guaranteeing me four rounds of golf, I will happily take Finau in this range. His range of outcomes is a little less predictable than the names around him but his scoring upside in a no cut event overshadows all the possible defects in round to round performance. This week I’m targeting players that score birdies in bunches. Finau missed the cut last week by a few strokes simply due to putting. In his previous four events he had gained strokes on the greens, if he can find the flat stick early watch out. Give me all the DK points.

$7,100 - $8,000

Ben Heisler: Ryan Palmer ($7,600 DK, $8,700 FD)

You know what’s fun? When terrific recent form meets up with impressive course history. Throw in a very affordable salary and you have the makings of a really fun week ahead for Palmer at Olympia Fields.

In his last five events, Palmer is fourth on Tour in total strokes gained, and has a T8 and T15 in two of his last three tournaments. He’s also 8th in SG: tee-to-green and 5th in SG: approach over his last 24 rounds.

Mark Farris: Russell Henley ($7,800 DK/$8,800 FD)

Honestly, I like his pricing better on FD than I do on DK. His all-around game is rounding into shape and, I think, plays well under pressure. I think he is going to be “on the bubble” for most of the week unless he jumps out to a Top 10 early and hangs there. That makes for aggressive play. I like Matt Kuchar’s price better on DK ($7,400).

Alex White: Jason Kokrak ($7,500 DK/ $8,400 FD)

Last season Kokrak finished his season with a 6th, 12th, 19th, and 14th place finish. Now going back to back top 20 performances. If history repeats itself; as it tends to do. Kokrak should finish with another top 20 and help us easily pay off his price on both sites. In his last two events he has put together 44 birdies and an eagle. The scoring upside is in our favor.

$7,000 and Under

Ben Heisler: Brian Harman ($6,900 DK, $8,200 FD)

Harman got off to a rough start after being a popular pick to open up the restart. In his last three weeks, however, he’s finished 58th at the PGA Championship, T27 at the Wyndham, and then a T11 last week at the Northern Trust. He currently ranks as the top strokes-gained: around-the-green player on tour, so for under $7K on DraftKings, I feel like it’s a worthwhile savings play.

Mark Farris: Talor Gooch ($6,600 DK/$7,800 FD)

This one was easy for me. I like Gooch for more than just how much fun it is to say his name. I think a Gooch-Kuch salary saver start on DK may give you a good weekend sweat.

Alex White: Brendan Steele ($6,600 DK/ $7,900 FD)

In his last four par 70 events on Tour he has placed 2nd at Sony, 4th at the Honda, 6th at the Travelers and 22nd at the PGA Championship. Brendan clearly likes himself some par 4’s. At this price he has massive upside with his current form. Some might even say “he’s a Steele.”

Top Fade

Ben Heisler: Rory McIlroy ($10,300 DK /$11,500 FD)

McIlroy has made every cut so far in 2020 but that doesn’t matter this week at the BMW as a no-cut event. I just can’t bring myself to spend that kind of salary for him when the results are nowhere near where they need to be: T32, T47, T33, T65 in his last four outings.

I saw that Rick Gehman pointed out that Rory’s approach game was the best it’s been since the restart. But then his putting was a disaster losing 6.5 strokes on the greens at TPC Boston.

He’s always capable of winning, but with Rahm’s recent form and so many other great, red-hot golfers priced down this week, I just can’t go there.

Mark Farris: Jason Day ($9,200 DK/$10,000 FD)

Don’t get me wrong, Jason Day has been playing very well. However, he MC’d last week and, frankly, I think J-Day is just getting tired. He needs to make up 20 spots to advance to next week. But, much like Brooks Koepka last week, it would not surprise me to see him walk through this event and play decently but have his eye more towards the U.S. Open in a few weeks.

Alex White: Patrick Cantlay ($8,900 DK, $10,700 FD)

Anyone seen this guy's game? I feel like he left it at the Workday Charity Open and has yet to go pick it up. Cantlay seems lost right now and with him being priced as the 12th highest player on the slate I will take a hard pass. In his last four events his best finish is 32nd at the Memorial. Understand, he is a long-term elite talent but something is missing at the moment. When he finds it I'll happily hop back on but I doubt it will be this week.