2020 BMW Championship: PGA Predictions & Best Bets

The SI Gambling Team breaks down their top wagers for the BMW Championship. Plus, our SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo shares the sharp action from Vegas & England.
Author:
Publish date:

The excitement and level of competition will ratchet up to an elevated level this week as the FedEx Cup Playoffs extends into the second leg. The PGA now heads to Olympia Fields in Chicago for the BMW Championship, with only the top 69 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings eligible to play in this week’s event. Consequently, in a field possessing only the sport’s elite talent opens up the betting board to immense opportunities.

We head into the BMW Championship with a new No. 1 in the World and FedEx Cup standings. Dustin Johnson’s (-30) dominant performance in capturing The Northern Trust by an astounding 11-strokes captured his 22nd PGA Tour victory, moving him to a 92-point lead over previous No. 1 Justin Thomas.

So who will emerge and take down the BMW Championship this week? Our team of experts, as well as sharp plays from across the pond and in Vegas, will once again help you find a way to make this week’s stop on the PGA Tour a profitable endeavor.

Let’s dive right in.

Former No. 1 player in the world Tiger Woods, off a T58 finish in the Northern Trust, will need a superb outing if he has any hopes of qualifying among the top 30. Woods can be found outside the top 10 betting choices, checking in at healthy odds of +3300. Bryson DeChambeau, who shockingly missed the cut in the Northern Trust, will look to bounce back to his previous form of five top 10s and one victory since the PGA restart.

The oddsmakers at Circa Sportsbook have Jon Rahm listed in the top perch sitting atop the odds board at +1025. Rounding out the top five according to the oddsmakers are Dustin Johnson (+1050), Justin Thomas (+1250) Bryson DeChambeau (+1250) and Rory McIlroy (+1450). Just outside the top five is a player sure to offer value, Daniel Berger at odds of +2000. The current No. 4 player in the FedEx Cup has finished in the top 3 in four of his last six events highlighted by an outright victory in the Charles Schwab Challenge back in June.

The field which was originally slated to feature 70 players was trimmed to 69 after the news late Tuesday that Webb Simpson, the No.3 player in the FedEx Cup standings, withdrew in order to rest up for the Tour Championship next week in Atlanta.

The BMW Championship Details

Dates: August 27-30, 2020

Course: Olympia Fields in Chicago, Illinois

TV: GOLF; NBC

Purse: $9,500,000

Our team of gambling experts, which have been red-hot, have compiled their approach to the BMW Championship from a betting perspective.

In addition, located below is sharp wagering information from both Vegas and London, England.

Let’s take a look at the odds as well as the team’s best bets and more!

Odds courtesy of Circa Sportsbook, Las Vegas

BMW Championship Predictions and Best Bets

Frankie Taddeo, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Vegas Insider (@Frankie_Fantasy)

The BMW Championship Sharp Action Breakdown

                                                                           Odds via Circa Sports

                                                                           Odds via Circa Sports

Metric Gaming’s Golf Desk located in London, England remains red-hot with sharp picks since the PGA’s return. Their model was once again on-point last week at the Northern Trust as Daniel Berger (+3500) came up short with a third place finish. Berger did cash nicely at solid plus-odds for the UK Sharps in top 5, top 10, top 15 and top 20 wagering. In addition, longshot play of Jason Kokrak at odds of +23000, cashed in top 15 and top 20 securing another solid payday as well after his T13 finish.

According to Daniel Banham, Director of Trading, the Metric Gaming team is enthusiastically looking forward to earning an outright score in the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs this week.

There are six players the UK sharps have their sights set on this week in Boston.

“The BMW Championship will be a phenomenal test of golf,” said Banham. “A very long par 70 course, with super penal rough, and a stimpmeter of 13 on the Bent/Poa Annua greens. We think Total Driving will be absolutely paramount - you won't be able to attack from the rough, and with too much club going into the greens, you won't be able to land the ball softly. Naturally, not a lot of course history to go on here, with so few tournaments held at Olympia Fields.”

“The market has strongly reacted to DJ's magnificent performance last week, and that has opened up the door for some value on some of the other favorites,” added Banham.

SHARP PLAYS

Accordingly, Metric Gaming’s model points to Jon Rahm at odds of +1025. “Rahm, in our opinion, is the best player in the world, and we've said it before, ‘The Spaniard has no weaknesses’. At odds of +1025 he offers solid value (our model has him at over 11-percent to win the event). Anecdotally, Rahm did play US Amateur at Olympia Fields back in 2015, and lost in the Quarter-finals.”

Secondly, we really like Xander Schauffle at odds of +1600, “Xander should be a perfect fit for this course and his odds of 16/1 is too juicy to pass up. Iron play isn't in peak form right now, but Schauffle is such a gritty, fierce competitor, who always seems to deliver his best when it really counts.”

Thirdly, Jason Kokrak is a guy Metric Gaming backed at the betting window last week in the Northern Trust at odds of +23000 and he came through to cash in top 15 and top 20 wagering. This week the model is drawn to his odds of +9300. “He's such a great driver of the ball, and that will come in very handy here. Form is certainly decent, and 93/1 is way too big. Make sure to get some Top 15 & Top 20 bets, as they once again offer tremendous value.”

TIGER LOVE? DEMAND VALUE!

Finally, Metric Gaming has some insights regarding one player sports bettors are always eyeing:

Tiger Woods (+3300) “Most U.S. sportsbooks have Tiger listed at too short of odds for a wager - but if you can find him at odds of 40/1 or higher, he is worth a small value play according to our model.”

***

VW

Vegas Whispers & Beyond

According to Patrick Eichner, Director of Communications at PointsBet Sportsbook, the action on the BMW Championship this week is as follows:

“Our most bet golfers to win the BMW Championship this weekend are Daniel Berger, Jon Rahm and Collin Morikawa,” said Eichner.

“Our top liabilities for the event include, Viktor Hovland, Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa, Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele.”

In terms of sharp wagers, ”some of our sharper clients like to focus on top 20/30/40 markets rather than our outright winner offering. We have seen a decent amount of sharp action come in on Scottie Scheffler (Top 10; +265), Russell Henley (Top 10; +500), Billy Horschel (Top 20; +190), Ryan Palmer (Top 20; +280, Dylan Frittelli (Top 30; +230 and Brendan Steele (Top 40; +100)."

***

Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)

BEST BETS TO WIN

Jon Rahm (+1025)

Rahm’s recent form reminds me of when he won the Memorial. He had excellent strokes gained: total numbers in the previous event at the Workday and turned in a brilliant performance the Sunday before. His last two weeks have been his best SG: total numbers since he won the Memorial back in July, and his putter was the best it's been since the WGC-Mexico in February (4.5 SG: putting). He needs to tighten up his irons a bit, but every other part of Rahm’s game is in excellent form and he’ll be my favorite cash game play on the board, as well as my pick to win.

Daniel Berger (+2200)

It took sportsbooks long enough to finally put Berger in an odds range that suits his recent play. Other than missing the cut at the Memorial, Berger’s WORST finish since February 2nd has been 13th at the PGA Championship. He has seven top 10 finishes in his last nine events, including six in the top 5.

Berger gained an insane 11.5 SG: total, including 6 with his putter alone last week. I’m not expecting it to be that hot again, but if he continues to do everything else well (and his recent history indicates he will), I’ll continue to ride the hot hand and not think twice about it.

BEST VALUE PLAYS

Matthew Wolff (+4200)

Wolff’s metrics remain excellent, but I think he has a slight chance to go overlooked this week considering the value available. Over his last 24 rounds, Wolff is top-five on Tour in SG: off-the-tee and is right around top 20 in SG: total as well as SG: approach.

His approach game wasn’t great at TPC Boston a week ago (-1.9 SG: APP) but he still managed to hang around. He’s typically an excellent ball-striker and is an excellent fit for the style of Olympia Fields. He was like the savvy veteran pitcher who despite not having fastball command, was still able to hang around for a quality start. I think Wolff can win this week and when he’s locked in, he can more than pay off

Kevin Kisner (+5200)

Circa may have goofed on these odds because I can’t seem to find Kisner lower than +4000 anywhere. Regardless, I’ll happily take advantage at any sportsbook considering he’s coming off back-to-back T5 finishes and has more than 10.5 strokes gained: total in each of his last two rounds.

His short game has also been brilliant, having finished no worse than +5 SG: putting over his last four rounds on tour.

BEST LONGSHOTS

Ryan Palmer (+9300)

You know what’s fun? When terrific recent form meets up with impressive course history. Throw in very exciting odds and you have the makings of a really fun week ahead for Palmer at Olympia Fields.

In his last five events, Palmer is fourth on Tour in total strokes gained, and has a T8 and T15 in two of his last three tournaments. He’s also 8th in SG: tee-to-green and 5th in SG: approach over his last 24 rounds.

Brendan Steele (+12500)

For someone who’s way near the bottom of the odds this week (remember it’s a no-cut field), Steele has terrific metrics with his only issue being around-the-green.

Steele’s worst numbers in his last 24 rounds are 41st in SG: off-the-tee, and 38th in SG: around-the-green and putting. Everything else is above average to excellent!

He also tends to be a fast starter so I may also consider him as a first-rounder leader bet as well.

Check out our top DFS plays for the BMW Championship over at SI Fantasy PRO. It's FREE this week!

****

Alex White, SI Fantasy Golf & Gambling Contributor (@coachwhiteDFS)

BEST BETS TO WIN

Dustin Johnson (+1050)

DJ has won back to back events two separate times over his career. I can't recall the last time a golfer gained over twelve strokes in a tournament with their approach shots. The form is undeniable with a 2nd place finish at the PGA Championship and a massacre last weekend at the Northern Trust. You don’t play how he did and lose it in four days time. The odds are more than fair in a condensed field that he just dismantled a week ago.

Patrick Reed (+2500)

Reed is coming off a tournament where he lost strokes putting. Let me say that again...where he LOST strokes putting. The last time Reed lost strokes on the greens was in early July. In his last two seasons on Tour he has only managed to lose strokes on the greens in back to back week’s twice. The odds are in our favor on this one. All it takes is some flat stick magic to win tournaments on the PGA Tour. He is far and away the best option at these odds. I can't fault you for playing Morikawa at 25/1, if you simply don’t like the Reed play.

BEST VALUE PLAY

Brendon Todd (+8900)

Why not? He started the season with two wins. Why can't he finish the season with one? The way he has turned his game around in a single season can't be ignored. The odds don’t match his recent performance. All it will take is four consistent rounds in the 60’s. Todd has as good of chance as any to take home another win this season.

BEST LONGSHOT

Brendan Steele (+12500)

In his last four par 70 events on Tour he has placed 2nd at Sony, 4th at the Honda, 6th at the Travelers and 22nd at the PGA Championship. Brendan clearly likes himself some par 4’s. At these odds he has massive upside with his current form. In a field of only 70 players his chances of winning are even higher. I would have bet him at 100/1, so take the value and run.

****

Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@SIGambling)

BEST BET TO WIN

Xander Schauffele (+1600)

A model of consistency, Schauffele finished T16 or better in 12 of 18 tournaments since this event last year. Setup as a long 7,323-yard par 70, Olympia Fields CC suits long-hitters who are accurate off the tee. After winning the 2017 Tour Championship, plus finishing second last year, Schauffele can handle the big stage pressure. Looking beyond top favorites, on the Las Vegas SuperBook BMW Championship betting card, Xander Schauffele is my tournament winner.

BEST VALUE PLAY

Scottie Scheffler (+3500)

Back-to-back T4 finishes, at the Northern Trust and PGA Championship, makes Scottie Scheffler the top favorite to win the PGA Rookie of the Year award. Scheffler (-17) posted a 267 total score and handled the pressure of a strong field last week. His total includes a blistering 59 on Thursday that set a new single round record at TPC Boston. A second round 71 hurt Scheffler during the PGA Championship. Take the generous moneyline price on a consistent contender.

TOP 20 FINISH

Viktor Hovland (+130)

Solid early, Viktor Hovland finished in the top 23 during five events after the PGA Tour restart. That includes a third place finish in the Workday Charity Open at Muirfield Village. Hovland dropped off some during the Memorial Tournament (T48) the FedEx St. Jude (T59) and the PGA Championship (T33) prior to a T18 at The Northern Trust last week. Currently 24th, in the FedExCup standings, Hovland needs a decent four-day run to play in the Tour Championship.

FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY

Daniel Berger (-122) over Jason Day (+100)

Odds for my favorite matchup are posted at FanDuel sportsbook. I had Daniel Berger as my Northern Open value play but, like everyone else, he was steamrolled by the -30 Dustin Johnson posted. Harris English (-19) was second and Berger (-18) was third. Jason Day missed the cut after shooting 70 and 75 during the first two rounds at TPC Boston. Berger and Day were both playing well heading into the FedEx Championship playoffs - bet on the more confident golfer.