PGA Corales Championship Predictions and Best Bets
Alex White and Ben Heisler
Congrats to SI Gambling's very own Roy Larking for nailing Bryson DeChambeau at +2800 last week. Can he go back-to-back?
Following up the carnage at the U.S. Open, we head to beautiful Puntacana for the Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship. To the general public, the interest in this tournament may be obsolete, but in the betting world we still have plenty at stake.
The best odds come in tournaments like this as the field is much weaker making every player's chances much higher. Two weeks ago in a similar scenario, Stewart Cink won at +20000 odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s just say the odds are in our favor when it comes to tournament’s like this one.
The headliners for this tournament are golfers like Henrik Stenson, Charles Howell III, Pat Perez, and Charley Hoffman. However, not a single of them are in the top three in starting odds on DK Sportsbook. The outright favorites are Corey Conners, and Korn Ferry Tour king Will Zalatoris both coming in at +1400.
In a field like this you have just as good a chance to win at +5000 as you do at +1400. If you’re looking to make money this week continue reading below for the best bets in the industry.
Let’s go find our edge!
The Breakdown: Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship
Dates: September 24-27
Course: Corales Golf Club
Let’s take a look at the current odds from DK Sportsbook, as well as the SI Gambling team's best bets and more.
DraftKings Odds - Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship
Corales Puntacana Resort & Club Championship Predictions and Best Bets
Alex White, SI Gambling and DFS Analyst (@coachwhitedfs)
***Always hedge your outright bets with a top 5, top 10, or top 20 bet.***
BEST BETS TO WIN
Sam Burns (+2000)
In his last tournament, Burns gained strokes in all six major statistical categories. In a field like this you can’t go wrong with an all around golfer that has massive scoring ability. Burns ranks number one overall in my mixed model. He ranks first in DraftKings scoring, second in shots gained par 4’s, and 3rd in approach in his last 24 measured rounds. This is a perfect opportunity for the kid to pick up his first win on the PGA Tour. Not to mention in 2019 he placed 12th here with a 74 carded on Friday. If he can go all four rounds under par, he will take home the hardware.
Pat Perez (+2800)
The form has slowly come back for Perez. He has made his last four cuts with a top 10 his last time out. The putter has been his key to success, gaining over seven strokes on the greens last time out. If he can hit fairways and greens this week watch out for a career resurgence. This play reminds me of last season when Graeme McDowell got hot and took home the trophy last season here at Corales. This week a lot of random names will be in the mix. I’m confident Perez will be in the discussion over the weekend.
BEST VALUE PLAYS
Sepp Straka (+3300)
Sepp can put it all together from time to time and pop on any leaderboard. It really comes down to how his ball striking is that week. He has consistently gotten better with his putter of the last year and a half. Now ranking 4th overall in this field with the flat stick. I know he has what it takes to win on the PGA Tour, but the question still remains. When? This is an ideal spot in my eyes.
Ryan Armour (+12500)
I can't make a great case for Armour here, but I have a feeling. Isn’t that enough anymore? Armour is a train wreck some weeks and a superhero the next. In his last seven events he has four missed cuts, a fourth, sixth, and twenty-seventh place finish. Talk about a mixed bag. I love his odds to top 10 this week at +1100.
Brandon Hagy (+12500)
With this course measuring over 7,600 yards, you want to make sure the golfers you choose can hit long irons. Hagy ranks 13th in proximity from 200 yards plus. He also ranks 3rd with his putter. At $6,900 that's a perfect combination for success on this track. You have to take a chance somewhere this week why not Hagy at +12500?
Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)
BEST BETS TO WIN
Will Zalatoris (+1400)
Nobody is ever thrilled to bet a favorite for a golfer they probably hadn’t heard of until a handful of weeks ago, but both Zalatoris, along with Sam Burns (+2000) will be at the top of my favorite betting plays this week.
Zalatoris gets the slight edge with his outstanding play in nearly every metric that’s not near the green. He ranks first amongst players in the field in SG: total and fourth in SG: approach. We also joke about getting the putter hot for a weekend, and if Zalatoris can improve on his SG: putting which ranks 129th in the field, he should absolutely contend yet again.
He’s finished no worse than T19 in his last five events, including three top six finishes. His T6 result at Winged Foot opened up plenty of eyeballs and he’s very much ready to win a PGA Tour event
BEST VALUE PLAY(S)
Chris Baker (+7000)
Baker compared to similarly listed odds just laps the field. He’s seventh in SG: total, tee-to-green and ball striking in his last 24 events, and comes in third in SG: approach. His glaring weakness is around-the-green, but if his irons live up to what the numbers indicate, it shouldn’t be much of an issue.
His recent form is a bit of a concern after missing the cut at the Safeway Open, but before that, he had made eight consecutive cuts and had been on the up-and-up. I love him as a value bet this week.
Chris Kirk (+9000)
Kirk can make some eye-opening shots and get off to a hot start, so all the more reason to consider him at 90/1.
Kirk ranks 8th in SG: total and falls into the top 20 for SG: tee-to-green and 18th in SG: off-the-tee. His putting ranks 84th, but if he drives it well and hangs in with his irons, he should absolutely pay off his salary and more.
Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@SIGambling)
BEST BET TO WIN:
Mackenzie Hughes (+2000)
Following a grueling run of high caliber, pressure packed events, Canadian Mackenzie Hughes faces a much lighter field this week. Hughes posted solid results at the Tour Championship (14) the BMW Championship (T10) and The Northern Trust (T13) before missing the cut at the U.S. Open last week. He finished T2 with Chris Stroud, one-stroke behind Graeme McDowell, at this event last year. Racing up the leaderboard, Hughes posted a pair of 66 scores during the final two rounds.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Henrik Stenson (+3300)
Playing in just three events since the PGA Tour restart, Stenson finished T35 at the St. Jude Invitational prior to missing the cut at the PGA Championship and U.S. Open. This play is based more on pedigree than recent results as Stenson is currently No. 40 in the World Golf Rankings. His last win was at the Hero World Challenge by one-stroke over Jon Rahm in December 2019. Albany Golf Course in The Bahamas hosted that event so Stenson is familiar with windy Caribbean conditions.
TOP 10 FINISH
Adam Long (+300)
Following a T13 finish at the U.S. Open – I am betting on Adam Long posting a Top 10 finish this week. Long ranked T3 in putts per round on the tough Winged Foot track last week. Dating back to a second place finish in July, at the 3M Open, Long has made the cut during six straight tournaments. He finished 31st overall in the 2019-20 FedExCup standings. Long won the 2019 Desert Classic, by one stroke over Phil Mickelson and Adam Hadwin, to earn his lone PGA Tour victory to date.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY
Brian Stuard (-110) over Kyle Stanley (-110)
Odds on matchup plays at DraftKings Sportsbook are tightly priced this week. In a field that lacks 49 of the top 50 ranked PGA players – Stuart over Stanley is my favorite matchup play this week. Neither player qualified for the U.S. Open but they have played in the same tournaments recently. Stuard (T3) was a contender at the Safeway Open while Stanley (T46) was well off the pace. Prior to that, at the Wyndham Championship in August, Stuard finished T51 and Stanley missed the cut.