Farmers Insurance Open: The Burning Edge

Alex White

The Burning Edge

The Burning Edge is a PGA DFS must read each week. Not for the writing…. Trust me. Simply for the best and most consistent picks in the industry. I will not be giving you 40 golfers to choose from each week, I will simplify the game for you and give you the best chance to win money. Don’t just glance over my article because even the slightest detail can help change your lineup and possibly change your life forever.

This article will consist of my top plays on the slate for both major DFS sites. Plus, betting tips, and statistical information to help you make an educated decision. Trust the process and reap the rewards.

STOP READING IF:

  1. You don’t like winning money.
  2. You don’t like to take risks.
  3. You don’t want to learn.
  4. You expect to win every single week.

Tournament Stop

Tournament: Farmers Insurance Open

Defending Champion: Justin Rose -21

Course: Torrey Pines South (3 rounds) Torrey Pines North (1 round)

Yardage: South Course 7,698, North Course 7,258

Par: Both 72

Greens: South Poa, North Bentgrass

*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)

Tournament History

2019: Justin Rose 1st, Hideki Matsuyama t3, Talor Gooch t3

2018: Jason Day 1st, Ryan Palmer 2nd

2017: Jon Rahm 1st, CT Pan 2nd

2016: Brandt Snedeker 1st, KJ Choi 2nd

Key Stats

SG Ball Striking- Top 10 in field

-Gary Woodland

-Keegan Bradley

-Jason Kokrak

-Jason Day

-Hideki Matsuyama

-Emiliano Grillo

-Bubba Watson

-Kevin Streelman

-Jon Rahm

-Kyle Stanley

Proximity 200yds plus- Top 10 in field

-Lucas Glover

-Martin Laird

-Bronson Burgoon

-Cameron Smith

-Kyle Stanley

-Max Homa

-Jimmy Walker

-HV3

-Jhonattan Vegas

-Russell Knox

SG Short Game-Top 10 in field

-Brandt Snedeker

-Aaron Baddeley

-Cameron Smith

-Phil Mickelson

-Jimmy Walker

-Patrick Reed

-Patton Kizzire

-Michael Thompson

-Zac Blair

-Hideki Matsuyama

Top 10 overall rankings

-Brendan Steele

-Hideki Matsuyama

-Emiliano Grillo

-Marc Leishman

-Justin Rose

-Patrick Reed

-Keegan Bradley

-Jimmy Walker

-Jon Rahm

-Gary Woodland

These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.

Top Notch Options

Best plays on the slate with winning upside.

Jon Rahm- This was a tough choice between Rory and Rahm, but my final decision was based on driving accuracy and the ability to set up more consistent scoring chances on the south course. Rahm is overall a better driver of the ball; he has power and keeps it in the short grass more often than Rory. With the rough being thick and the greens being hard and fast ball control is going to be key to scoring this week. Rahm has won on this track and he is my pick to win this week.

Justin Rose- One of the best long course players in the entire world. Rose is a long and straight hitter of the golf ball and that will be key this week. You will see the same theme throughout most of my picks this week. The course is supposed to play twice as hard as last years event due to no recent rain to help slow the course down. Rose can play on any course, in any condition with confidence and consistency. Rose is splitting hairs with Rory for me this week so if you can afford Rory he is worth it.

Salary Savers

Salary relief for balanced builds.

Lanto Griffin- Griffin brings the all-around game we are looking for this week. Solid off the tee, mediocre irons, average short game, and excellent putting. He can put it all together from time to time as we saw in the swing season as he notched his first win on the PGA Tour. His single result at this course proves he isn’t afraid of a strong field with a 12th place finish in 2018. I believe he is going to be a great fantasy option all year long and will become a DFS darling by year’s end.

Emiliano Grillo- One of the most challenging to peg golfers on the planet. He can put an iron shot 4ft from the hole and end up three putting his way into self- submission. All the boxes are being checked for him this week but if he can’t finish none of the other stats matter. Thankfully he ranks 12th in bogey avoidance in this field and when he is having a poor day, he can still limit his mistakes. I believe the winning score this week will be around -12 and he can compete in tournaments like this. Grind one out for us Grillo, you are due!

Tourney Treasures

Lower owned golfers with upside.

Keegan Bradley- I’m looking for golfers who can keep the ball in play this week. Normally these golfers suck at putting and that’s the case with Bradley. However, last week he managed to gain 1.7 strokes on the field in putting. If that continues, we will see his name near the top come Sunday. Worth a spot on my roster for the price and the upside he can bring.

Russell Knox- After underwhelming many DFS players the past few weeks he will fall in ownership and that’s when we attack. Knox hasn’t missed a cut in his last seven events. He is going to have to make putts to stay in it. It’s really that simple. The opportunities will be there for him. I expect a top 30 performance if you’re looking for a winner this is not your guy. I believe getting 6/6 through this week will be extremely challenging and if you manage to do it you will make good money this week.

Sneaky Suspicion

Gut Play.

Hideki Matsuyama- The price is right. Matsuyama is crushing my stat model and is in exceptional current form. His best putting surface is Poa, he excels on long, difficult courses. Everything is lining up for him and this should be a week where he pays off his high price tag. Don’t hesitate to start your lineups here and make a more balanced build. He has winning upside at this course.

Fade

Find a lower owned pivot.

Ryan Palmer- Coming in with solid form and good course history I expect Palmer’s ownership to be around 18-22%. That is simply too high for a golfer as volatile as Palmer on a course with water, thick rough and danger around every corner. His worst putting surface is Poa and I can’t remember the last time Palmer has played three tournaments in a row well. This is a let-down spot if I have ever seen one.

On The Edge

Golfers that just missed the write up cut.

Rory McIlroy- can’t go wrong here.

Gary Woodland

Tony Finau

Patrick Reed- excellent short game

Sungjae Im- cut maker

Colin Morikawa- cut maker

Cam Smith- course history and good from

Marc Leishman- putts well on fast greens

Bud Cauley- last week’s hero

Bubba Watson- never played here but fits his game imo

Harris English- cash worthy

Rory Sabbatini

Brendan Steele- solid form and course history

Sepp Straka

Kevin Streelman

Tim Wilkinson

Bets and Odds

For the degenerate in all of us.

Pick to Win- Jon Rahm 8/1

Longshot to Win- Bubba Watson 100/1

One and Done- Jon Rahm or Hideki

This is golf.

Be contrarian.

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