Farmers Insurance Open - Hitting the Power Fade

markfarris

Hitting the Power Fade – PGA DFS

By: Mark Farris

Tournament:Farmers Insurance Open

Course:Torrey Pines North (Par 72 – 7,300 Yards)

Torrey Pines South (Par 72 – 7,700 Yards)

Everyone plays North Course Once – 3 Rounds on South 

Location:La Jolla, CA

Defending Champions:Justin Rose (-21) – 2019

Jason Day (-10) – 2018 (Playoff over Noren & Palmer)

Jon Rahm (-13) – 2017

Brandt Snedeker (-6) – 2016

NOTE: No matter what the format of my article, I am ALWAYS available on Slack Chat! You can discuss your ideas/issues with everyone in the #pga-dfs channel or you can DM me on there if you have an idea you really want to keep to yourself.

Remember the Rules of playing DFS:

  • You will probably lose more weeks than you win.
  • Play Single-Entry (S/E), S/E Double-Ups and 50/50s as a hedge against the GPPs you want/like to play.
  • If you play GPPs, look for Single-Entry contests first. After that, play the ones that allow five (5) entries or less. The only exception I have to my rule is that I play the $1 WTA each week that allows 20 entries. I don’t always play the maximum but I use it to help me set the 10-20 lineups I like to set each week. I am NOT a Mega-Multi Entry player!
  • In PGA-DFS, DO NOT get overly excited by your position after Round 1 (Thursday).

Course Background

  • North Course is the shortest and the easiest
  • South Course is more difficult and roughly 400 yards longer and also underwent some renovations after the 2019 event
  • Kikuyu Grass fairways. It’s short, thick and “sticky”. Iron play value increases.
  • The North Course renovations changed the greens to bentgrass from poa.
  • EVERYONE plays a round on each course on Thursday-Friday. Either North-South or South-North. With the North Course being easiest, you may want to stack guys playing that course if one day’s weather looks worse than the other.
  • This is a Pro-Am so play will probably be slower than normal.

Alex White’s approach is a lot more statistical and I’m more of a “gut” picker, so it is beneficial to read both articles. Golf is a variant DFS sport and sometimes you just have a feeling………that’s my approach in this Article. Don’t get me wrong. I view Alex’s article as a “must read” and his analysis has pushed me off the fence on a lot of plays. So, here we go!

$9,000 & Up

  • Rory McIlroy
  • Jon Rahm
  • Tiger Woods
  • Justin Rose
  • Xander Schauffele
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Rickie Fowler
  • Gary Woodland
  • Tony Finau
  • Patrick Reed
  • Sungjae Im
  • Jason Day

As with most weeks, everyone likes to start a lineup with someone in this range – and get two if possible. NOTE: I love McIlroy, Woods and Rose as well, but I’m trying to be a little contrarian. I AM NOT CONDONING avoiding these guys completely if you are doing multiple lineups.

My Play:Xander Schauffele

Top Picks:Sungjae Im, Gary Woodland, Tony Finau and Jon Rahm (no particular order)

Low-owned:Hideki Matsuyama

Wild Card:Patrick Reed

Xander Schauffele – I’m really feeling good about Xander this week. He’s about middle of the pack as far as pricing here and is T2-T10-2-T10 in his last four starts. He has the power and accuracy necessary for the South Course with the 400 additional yards.

Gary Woodland – As much as I want to talk about the “big dogs” here, I’m more in love with the middle of the price range guys this week and their current form. Woodland is T7-T7-5-T3 in his last four starts.

Sungjae Im – This guy has become a must play and I think Alex and I mentioned at some point last year to “get him while his price is down”. Well, it’s not “down” anymore but $9,100 is reasonable for him with his scoring ability.

$7,000 - $8,900 (not listing everyone here)

My Play:Scottie Scheffler (I think Schauffele-Scheffler sounds like a good CORE)

Top Picks:Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Denny McCarthy (I’m in until he burns me), Matthew Wolff, Ryan Palmer, & Lanto Griffin

Wild Cards:Jordan Spieth (still don’t trust him as a core play – GPP), Brandt Snedeker (2 wins here, but the distance can get him), & Bubba Watson/Phil Mickelson (I lump these two together because they can light up the scoring or fail to show up – GPP ONLY)

There are a few other guys in here that I am contemplating using, but don’t want to kill you with choices. If you have a question on a specific guy, hit me up on Slack chat or Twitter (@Farris1967) and I will try to give you some advice.

$6,600 - $6,900

My Plays:Carlos Ortiz (at $6,900, he should easily reach value)

Top Picks:Peter Uihlein & Keith Mitchell

Wildcards:Harold Varner III & Bo Hoag

Again, with a guarantee of 3 days, there are a lot more guys here that intrigue me. Redman burned a lot of people last week so I think he will be ignored and could very easily finish Top 20. Hudson Swafford is a past winner so I don’t want to ignore him either.

$6,500 and Below

I actually like some guys down here this week!

My Play:Doc Redman 

Top Picks:D.J. Trahan & Bo Hoag

Longshots:Steve Stricker, Tim Wilkinson & Harry Hall (don’t know much about him, but at $6,000 – why not if you want to play stars & scrubs.

Projected Winner:Xander Schauffele

Low-owned Winner:Scottie Scheffler

Longshot (below $8K):Lanto Griffin

Remember, it’s called GOLF because all of the other 4-letter words were taken! The variance is frustrating and Alex and I are just trying to help you through the ROUGH!

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