The Burning Edge
Micheal Thompson “A True Underdog Story” featured last week on the PGA Tour. It goes to show that anyone, any week, at any venue can win on “Any Given Sunday”.
Since these WGC events aren’t nearly as fun as regular full field events, I figured I would change it up a bit. This article will be full of movie titles and quotes so if you’re aren’t into pop culture you can see yourself out.
If you’re still with me, we do have quite the strong field this week as 45 of the top 50 golfers in the world will be teeing it up. Barring any Covid related withdrawals we should have a chance at 6/6 this week. It will probably be my first time all year since I seemingly forgot how to play DFS all together the past few months.
This is a week where you should play about half of your normal bankroll. Also, I can’t stress this enough, leave money on the table! Especially if you’re in tournaments. “Click” the names you like, don't look at the salary used and just move on.
Let’s go find our edge!
Tournament: WGC- FedEx St. Jude
Defending Champion:Brooks Koepka -16
Course: TPC Southwind
*78 Players in the field, NO CUT EVENT!
SG Ball Striking: Top 10 in field
SG Putting: Top 10 in field
SG Tee to Green: Top 10 in field
Top 10 overall rankings
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Golfers with the best chance to return value.
Webb Simpson (DK $9,900, FD $11,100)- DOH! Last time out Webb lost over five strokes through approach. This was due to the high winds at Memorial not because he lost something in his game.
Now we get him under 10k on DK where he should easily be one of the highest priced golfers on the slate. When will people start to realize Webb is elite? In his last 15 events on Tour he has 2 wins, 3 second place finishes, a 3rd, a 7th and 8th place finish. That means every other tournament you’re getting a golfer that will give you at least a top 8 finish. Webb is now considered a “Big Fish”.
First Pivot: Rory McIlroy
Tyrell Hatton (DK $9,700, FD $10,800)- I’m willing to take a plunge down the rabbit hole this week. The Mad Hatter is coming into this event possibly hotter than any other player on tour. In his last six events his worst finish is a 14th, the rest are top fives, top tens and a win. Now we get back to Bermuda greens where he has dominated in his past. His putter is already on another level. If he continues to stripe his irons and misses the water on this course then it’s “Game Over” for all the other players.
First Pivot: Justin Thomas
Golfers to give you salary relief for balanced builds.
Daniel Berger (DK $9,600, FD $10,500)- CheeseBerger Eddy is passing out value menu items this week. Highlighting our Salary Saver section is none other than the back to back St. Jude Champion. When the tournament wasn’t played as a WGC event in 16’/17’ Berger went back to back to win at TPC Southwind. The form is right, the price is right, the course is right, now we just need to swipe right.
First Pivot: Jason Day
Sergio Garcia (DK $8,000, FD $9,200)- “And I was like, Sergiooooooooooo”. I really hope someone gets that one.
Sergio is not the golfer he once was, but he’s as good once as he ever was. This is the week to hop on. In a small field on a course that doesn’t require a ton of scoring to win. This setup is right up his alley. TPC Southwind requires a great ball-striker that can keep it in the fairway and hit greens in regulation. Sergio ranks 15th in GIR% and 18th in good drive percentage. He gets back to Bermuda where he sucks the least at putting. “So you’re telling me there's a chance!”.
First Pivot:Jordan Spieth
Lower owned golfers with upside.
Kevin Streelman (DK $6,900, FD $8,500)- Prior to the wind at Memorial Streelman was crushing his irons and keeping his drives in the fairway. That is the perfect combination to succeed this week. The name isn’t polarizing so the ownership will stay relatively low, making him an excellent tournament option. Streelman is another golfer who plays better on challenging courses that force smart golf, and don’t allow players to overpower the course.
First Pivot: Kevin Na
Chez Reavie (DK $6,700, FD $8,200)- Leave it to Reavie. Coming into this event with his form trending in the right direction. In back to back event’s he has positive strokes gained metrics in all six major categories. Making him an ideal target in this low range. Watch the ownership as the week goes on but if you like him just play him. Ownership doesn’t matter if they exceed expectations.
First Pivot: Micheal Thompson
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (DK $6,800, FD $7,900)- Bless you!When you get to this low range you will have glaring issues in one or two parts of a golfers game. I can only find one real issue with Christiaan, his driver. He flares shots left, right, into water, into sand and lastly into the fairway. Not ideal for this course but he has some serious scoring ability when he puts the ball into the fairway. Christiaan is an excellent short game player and his irons are solid. He can fight out of trouble but he really just needs to miss the water at all cost. I like his overall game and have confidence he can score enough to give us value as his current salary.
First Pivot: Matt Jones
On The Edge
Golfers who just missed the write up cut. Firmly in play.
Outrights and Props
For the degenerate in all of us.
Outright to Win: Justin Thomas 10/1, Webb Simpson 22/1, Daniel Berger 30/1, Sergio Garcia 70/1
First Round Leaders: Matthew Fitzpatrick 33/1, Tony Finau 33/1, Webb Simpson 33/1, Matt Kuchar 50/1, Matt Wallace 80/1
Top 5 Bets
Webb Simpson 4.5/1
Sergio Garcia 11/1
Top 10 Bets
Matt Kuchar 5.5/1
Chez Reavie 6.5/1
Big Gulps Eh? Welp see ya later!