Waste Management Open: The Burning Edge
The Burning Edge
The Burning Edge is a PGA DFS must read each week. Not for the writing…. Trust me. Simply for the best and most consistent picks in the industry. I will not be giving you 40 golfers to choose from each week, I will simplify the game for you and give you the best chance to win money. Don’t just glance over my article because even the slightest detail can help change your lineup and possibly change your life forever.
This article will consist of my top plays on the slate for both major DFS sites. Plus, betting tips, and statistical information to help you make an educated decision. Trust the process and reap the rewards.
STOP READING IF:
- You don’t like winning money.
- You don’t like to take risks.
- You don’t want to learn.
- You expect to win every single week.
Tournament: Waste Management Phoenix Open 2020
Defending Champion:Rickie Fowler -17
Course: TPC Scottsdale
*Top 65 and Ties Make the Cut (No MDF)
2019: Rickie Fowler 1st, Branden Grace 2nd, Justin Thomas 3rd
2018: Gary Woodland 1st, Chez Reavie 2nd, Brendan Steele t3
2017: Hideki Matsuyama 1st, Webb Simpson 2nd, 3rd not in field
2016: Hideki Matsuyama 1st, Rickie Fowler 2nd, Harris English 3rd
SG Ball Striking- Top 10 in field
Byeong Hun An
Proximity 150-175- Top 10 in field
Byeong Hun An
Par 4 (450-500)-Top 10 in field
Byeong Hun An
Top 10 overall rankings
Byeong Hun An
These rankings are based on a personalized mixed model created on fantasynational.com.
Top Notch Options
Best plays on the slate with winning upside.
Jon Rahm- After a disappointing finish to last week’s tournament Rahm will be fired up to tee it up in a familiar city. Rahm played collegiate golf at Arizona State. A few years back he threw on an Arizona State jersey on the world-renowned par 3 16th and put the ball about 7ft from the pin causing the crowd to erupt. Yes, he made the birdie putt. You don’t forget a moment like that, and he will forever want to be in the mix come Sunday to try an re-create that epic moment in his golf legacy. I will be backing him once again with total confidence. This year he is going to climb to number 1 in the official world golf rankings. Rahm you’re my pick to win.
Rickie Fowler- Let me make this clear. Rahm is number one this week, Justin Thomas is number two and Rickie is a close third in my rankings. JT is only $700 more expensive on DK and $400 more expensive on FD. If you can afford him, I recommend spending up. If you’re only left with enough for Rickie, he is still a fantastic option. He is the defending champion and has finished no worse than 11th in the last four attempts here. A true course horse with elite talent. Last week he missed the cut at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he is no stranger to bouncing back in spectacular fashion. His last 4 missed cuts have been followed up with an 11th,14th,14th, and an 11th place finish.I have little doubt he misses back to back cuts. Bounce back candidate number one this week.
Salary relief for balanced builds.
Scottie Scheffler- No history on this course might throw a few people off his trace. I’m buying in now before everyone catches on to his overall talent. I will be gravitating towards him this week for a few different reasons. He can keep the ball in play and generate scoring chances. This course will eat you up if you’re consistently in the rough, so looking for a good driver this week will be paramount. He prefers putting on Bermuda greens. He ranks top twenty in both tee to green game and approach. If he can find his putting stroke this week we should be in line for a bunch of birdies.
Corey Conners- With 6th consecutive made cuts and a recent finish inside the top 15 at the Sony he has been in good form for some time now. All due to his ball striking and tee to green game. However, last tournament he flashed with his putter gaining over five strokes compared to the field. If he can continue to make putts, he will be in contention to win this tournament. Reminds me on Bradley last week.
Lower owned golfers with upside.
Lanto Griffin- Falling flat on his face last week and hurting nearly twenty five percent of last weeks DFS players. He might have just pissed off enough people to keep them off him this week. I will hop right back on. This course reminds me of the Houston Golf Club where the Houston Open takes place. Why would that matter? Well that’s where not even four months ago Lanto won his first PGA Tour event. Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, can’t get fooled again.
Sebastian Munoz- This is my reach of the week. A few lackluster performances in the past month have turned the masses against him. We could end up with a 5% owned golfer with great scoring ability. Not even three weeks ago he was averaging 18-25% ownership in most tournaments after an excellent swing season. He has never played this course making it an even harder button to press for most. He caught my attention when I was going through my correlation courses. He has played extremely well on all three of my correlating courses. He also loves Bermuda greens and hot weather. I might be reaching but at $7,200 on DK and $8,500 on FD he is well worth a look. With an all around game he just needs to keep it in the fairway and make the cut for this play to pay off.
Matt Kuchar- Kuchar won a tournament just two weeks ago. You didn’t know that? Well that’s because it was in Singapore. He shot a -19 and under par every round. Yes, it was a weak field compared to the PGA Tour. However, he did end up beating big names like Justin Rose, and Henrik Stenson. I believe in his game and after burning us at the Sony he will bounce back on a course he loves. With a high price tag, I see him being completely overlooked.
Find a lower owned pivot.
Tony Finau- Finau generally garners around 15-20% ownership any given week. Finau brings upside to every tournament with his scoring prowess and ability to go super low any round. However, this course has his number. Finau has managed to miss four straight cuts at this event. Mainly due to his poor putting on Bermuda greens. I will take a stand and let course history dictate my fade this week. You saw it last week with Xander, he is a great player and the course should theoretically fit his game, but something doesn’t click. I’ll hop right back on once this week is over.
On The Edge
Golfers that just missed the write up cut.
Justin Thomas- Top Notch worthy
Webb Simpson- Top Notch worthy
DeChambeau- been playing well overseas
Watson- upside any he tees it up
Snedeker- cut maker
Sungjae IM- cut maker
Ryan Moore- excellent ball striker
Daniel Berger- good course history
Russell Knox- playing great right now
Vaughn Taylor- bounce back candidate
Tom Hoge- incredible form, cash viable
Byeong Hun An- birdies in bunches
Bets and Odds
For the degenerate in all of us.
Pick to Win- Jon Rahm 6.5/1
Longshots to Win- Corey Conners 80/1, Lanto Griffin 125/1
One and Done- Corey Conners
First Round Leader Bets- Rickie Fowler 25/1, Sungjae IM 40/1, Joel Dahmen 100/1, Scott Harrington 250/1
This is golf.
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