Week 7 in the NFL is expected to see a lot of tight games, as 11 of the 14 games have a spread of a touchdown or less. Below are our experts picking the games against the spread this season, along with each of their picks against the spread and best bets for this weekend's slate.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos: UNDER 48.5 Points
Let's make Thursday Night Football interesting—it will take away from the rage you're feeling as the NFL wastes a perfectly good matchup between division rivals. The Chiefs defense hasn't been able to get off the field, the Broncos want to control the clock and that means some long, sustained drives. Patrick Mahomes is likely to be somewhat limited by his ankle injury on a short week, the offensive line is sliding back and the Broncos' pass rush has been outstanding the past two weeks despite losing Bradley Chubb.
Denver has gone UNDER in all 10 games since the beginning of last season against opponents averaging 350-plus yards of offense per game, and gone UNDER in 14 of its past 16 games against AFC opponents. There's always a crapshoot quality to TNF because of the inherent sloppiness the short week creates, but this one doesn't figure to climb out of the mid-40s. —Gary Gramling
Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Denver Broncos
Be careful about jumping off the Chiefs bandwagon. Yes, they’re defense is a complete embarrassment, but a truly weak Broncos offense is just the medicine that Kansas City needs. The rust will be off Tyreek Hill and you’re only laying a field goal with a team that can score at will against a team that struggles to score. —Jimmy Traina
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-1)
The Texans are currently quite the hot commodity in the NFL after beating Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs at Arrowhead this past weekend. Before that? Houston dropped 53 points at home against a sorry Falcons team. But Deshaun Watson and the offense has taken advantage of facing two soft defenses in a row in Kansas City and Atlanta, and that won't be the case with Indianapolis here.
Even when the Colts were decimated by injuries in their last game, they were also able to upset the Chiefs at Arrowhead 19-13. Indy is an extremely well-coached team, and the sharp minds of head coach Frank Reich and defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus were able to devise a gameplan to slow down the Chiefs' high-octane offensive attack.
This was a well-timed bye for the Colts, as they get two weeks to prep and get healthy. Linebacker Darius Leonard has been cleared from concussion protocol, and his return is a huge boost for the defense. I think Reich is already one of the best head coaches in the league, and this game presents a rather big coaching mismatch with Bill O'Brien on the opposite sideline. Indy will get a key AFC South win here. —Max Meyer
Season record: 12-6