It was a good night last night as we hit both our best bets. The Cavaliers started cooking in the fourth quarter and the Suns dragged the Warriors from the opening tip until the final whistle. Warriors All-Star guard Stephen Curry broke his hand last night and there is no timetable for his return. It will be a tough year for the Dubs. Look for them to go into tank mode and try to get lucky in the lottery. Thursday’s slate is only three games, but I have best bets on two of them.
Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks: Heat -6.5, Under 215 Points
When these two Southeast Division rivals met earlier in the week, Hawks guard Trae Young injured his ankle. That's the main reason why the Hawks are 6.5-point underdogs at home tonight. Atlanta has covered three straight at home, but all those games featured Young. The Heat are undefeated ATS this season including a 15-point home victory over Atlanta on Tuesday night. The Heat are in a good spot again tonight. Atlanta has plenty of young talent on the team, but it's Young who makes the whole thing go.
I like the Heat to lay the number tonight as long as it doesn't get too high. I would play the Heat all the way up to 7.5. There is a lot of action on the under in the game. The total opened up at 216.5 and has been bet down to 215. Without Young, I'm not sure the Hawks can make it to 100 points. I will be betting the under.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers: Clippers -4
The Spurs will play their first road game of the 2019 season tonight in Los Angeles. The undefeated Spurs are winless ATS. They have not successfully laid points this year, tonight will be their first time playing as an underdog. This game opened up with the Clippers as 5-point favorites. While 60% of the tickets are on the Clippers, the line has dropped in the Spurs’ favor. Sharp bettors hit this line at 5 causing it to fall to 4.5, then they hit it again to bring the number down to 4. For those just getting into sports betting, this is called reverse steam.
In these situations, I normally side with the sharp bettors. In this particular situation, I'm going to stay on the public side. The Spurs were 16-25 on the road last season. I am not sure that those issues have been solved. I will lay the -4 with the Clippers as long as Kawhi Leonard plays.
Season record: 6-3
Strong Leans in Other Sports
Georgia Southern at Appalachian State (Thurs.) — The unders have been hitting at an insane rate in prime-time college football games, not to mention there is a threat for bad weather in this game. Pick: Under 44.5
Navy at Connecticut (Fri.) — Same scenario as tonight's game, for prime-time college football games we will most likely always play the under. Navy will run the triple-option and Connecticut can't really score anyway. Pick: Under 55